The short-lived rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, did not yet jettison the Kremlin's military leadership. But it may have had a more profound domestic and geopolitical impact: piercing the aura of invincibility so carefully cultivated by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
How this plays out in Moscow with military, political and economic elites, let alone regular Russians, remains to be seen. But it should further steel Kyiv — as well as Washington and Brussels, home to NATO — for maximum support for Ukraine's counteroffensive.
While the opaque nature of Russian politics and the fluidity of the situation leave more questions than answers, "What we do know is this was a demonstrable crack into [Putin's] strength at home," U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., told an editorial writer. "This shows that there is weakness in his regime."
In fact, for everyday Russians, "this puts a kind of kernel of a question about how stable Putin and his regime is right now," said Anthony Lott, an associate professor of political science at St. Olaf College. Lott, whose scholarship specializes in national and international security issues, added that the rapid advancement of Wagner Group soldiers through southwestern Russia to within 125 miles of Moscow might have been keenly observed by many, including soldiers, whose morale may sink even lower.
Especially after Prigozhin rejected the Kremlin's line on the war, which he said in an online video "wasn't for demilitarizing of denazifying Ukraine; it was needed for an extra [Hero] star" for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin, whose war crimes likely rival Putin's, should not be conflated with real reformers like imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny. But Prigozhin did call out the truth when he added that the war was being fought for oligarchs, "the clan which in practice rules Russia today."
Even in Putin's Russia, Lott said, "You can't control the narrative like you could through state control of the media." As for Putin himself, "He could rule through subterfuge and through coercion and through manipulation and this [rebellion] must have, just on a psychological level, created a great deal of dissonance in his world."
It also should clarify for Ukraine that fighting back against Russia's brutal, illegal invasion is not only righteous but the right strategy against a weakened leader. And the eventual dissolution of the Wagner Group (with some fighters joining the regular Russian Army) opens a window now that the most effective fighting force is sidelined.
But as the counteroffensive progresses, however haltingly, the risk of even more war crimes by Putin's regime increases. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam is a "clear example," Lott said, adding that the possibility of Russia similarly destroying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and even Putin using tactical nuclear weapons has heightened. Accordingly, the Western alliance should amplify its warnings that such action would have dire consequences for Russia.
Ukraine's forces, Klobuchar said, "have always had the moral upper hand, and they've had the passion, but now increasingly they're well-trained by the U.S. and other allies."
Klobuchar, who has made multiple visits to Ukraine, recalled innovation in weapons repair as just one proof point on how the well-motivated troops "are creative and smart about taking on one of the world's biggest superpowers and their entire military. And the fact that they're on the counteroffensive just shows how smart they've been."
Washington should be as motivated and creative in rallying allies to Ukraine's defense. Because ultimately the Western, and in fact world, order is at stake. Klobuchar suggested that despite some "factions in the House that are questioning that," for the most part most representatives — Republican and Democratic alike — are stalwart on providing aid, especially in the Senate.
"This visible crack to Putin's leadership should only cement our support for Ukraine," Klobuchar said. "We are on the side of right — we're also on the side of democracies. And if [Putin] rolls over this country, with this kind of moral reasoning, he won't stop anywhere. And then our problem is much bigger."
