A new survey by the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation reinforces that Hispanic Texans are no longer reliably Democratic. Both parties should take heed.
On some issues, survey responses aligned overwhelmingly with Republican causes. For instance, 78% of Hispanics surveyed said they strongly or somewhat support school choice. And not just charter schools; the way that question was worded includes the idea of vouchers for private schools.
Hispanics are also concerned about immigration: 73% agreed that what’s happening at the southern border is a crisis. However, only 51%, said the answer is increased security measures.
Republicans are taking note, at least sometimes. It’s not clear that Democrats are paying attention.
When the most bombastic members of their party aren’t vilifying unauthorized immigrants from Latin America with xenophobic rhetoric, Republicans have been making an effort to reach this population. The Republican National Committee has opened Hispanic community centers in Laredo, McAllen and San Antonio, where they host taco breakfasts and movie nights.
Republicans are seeing success in those areas. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump surpassed expectations in the Rio Grande Valley, where his popularity rose notably among Hispanic women, a change of about 8 percentage points between 2016 and 2020, according to Texas Monthly.
The shift isn’t just about Trump. A growing number of Hispanics has decided the GOP has ideas they prefer. Progressive messages about defunding police departments, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and restricting jobs in oil and gas are as unpopular with Hispanics as they are with the majority of Texans.
Hispanics who are Democrats in border communities don’t always toe the party line. Last year, Del Rio Mayor Bruno “Ralphy” Lozano publicly challenged the Biden administration to do better by overwhelmed border cities, a stand which helped earn him a spot among our finalists for Texan of the Year. In the TPPF survey, the percentage of respondents who approve of Biden’s job performance was split evenly: 47% approved, 46% disapproved.
For Democrats, the TPPF survey is only the latest worrisome data point. The intraparty conflict between moderates and progressives isn’t getting them far. Most Texas voters have been clear in their rejection of far-left policies. If Democrats don’t adjust, they could lose more strongholds in the future.
For Republicans, the strategy for keeping hold of Texas can’t be built on gerrymandering alone. The party’s efforts to reach Hispanic voters are vital to its future. As of 2020, Hispanics made up 39.3% of Texas residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase of almost 2 million from the 2010 census.
In the TPPF survey, 40% of respondents said Hispanics do not have access to the American dream to the same extent as white Texans. The party that can convince voters that it has a workable plan to improve opportunity will likely be the party to control the next generation of Texas politics.
