LAS VEGAS — The Raiders are 2-6, and their playoff odds have dropped to this: Slim is a slight favorite, and none is a live underdog.
Sure. I got this one wrong.
So much for the easy schedule theory.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. Not when you go all-in to win now, as the Raiders did entering the season. Not when you hand out hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts. Not when success would — should — be judged solely on securing a second straight playoff berth.
The mindset internally might have changed, but the Raiders still should be held to the standard set forth prior to things kicking off. There was no talk, no actions, to suggest general manager Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels viewed this as a rebuild situation.
Whether that is no longer the case, whether the two now believe the Raiders just aren’t talented enough in spots (begin on defense) as first imagined, doesn’t alter this fact: Anything short of a postseason berth should be considered a failure.
Funny how losing six of eight can change perspectives about the present and future inside a building.
A middle ground
Which begs the question: How best to approach the final nine games?
The middle ground here is the worst possible outcome — being good enough to reach eight or so wins, missing the playoffs and damaging your draft placement. You’re like the NBA team that annually finishes just outside the tournament.
Nobody likes that spot. It’s purgatory.
So is it better to have a dismal record that might secure, you know, a top-3 pick?
Is that success?
You can make an argument.
This is the uncomfortable part about professional sports with a college draft. There is no incentive for losing teams to win, because each victory hurts your chances at a quicker rebuild. That’s the cynical take. It’s also the correct one.
It’s one many fans would embrace if they knew such a selection would produce, say, the next franchise quarterback. The concept of tanking is not above a central preference for those who pay exorbitant ticket prices.
Derek Carr hasn’t played up to expectations. The Raiders can move on from his contract at season’s end. It’s a top-heavy draft class for quarterbacks. Something to ponder.
Current players don’t care about draft picks, and nor should they. This is their livelihood. McDaniels is also trying to win now — each snap, each quarter, each game — and in turn establish a culture. It’s unlikely he and Ziegler would blow things up and make major personnel changes midseason.
And yet the Raiders waived a former first-round pick in safety Johnathan Abram on Tuesday.
“I mean, look, we’re going to try to address and figure out what do we need to do to shift the results,” McDaniels said. “I definitely am not going to go in there and panic and say we need to uproot everything we’ve done. That’s not really the right thing to do …
“If there’s something that needs to change, whether schematically or putting different people in different personnel groupings or what have you to make it go a little better for us, then we’ll have to try and take a look at that.”
Win now to rebuild
They’re going to win games. They still have skill, and on Sunday host a Colts team that just grabbed a former player with no coaching experience beyond high school out of an ESPN studio to be its coach. Yeah. True story.
The Raiders really need to beat Indianapolis.
But they also went all-in and are 2-6. If the mindset has changed to a rebuild, so be it.
The gauge for this season, however, was determined before things kicked off for real. That doesn’t seem likely now. It also doesn’t change what should be considered a first-year success.
Just don’t finish in the middle ground. Purgatory. Nobody likes that spot.
