Economic gloom looks likely to sink the Tories. But Labour is taking no chances

‘If they are smart, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves will take control of the economic narrative, blaming Tory mismanagement for any tough decisions that have to be made.’ Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

Mortgage rates this week are at their highest level since the global financial crisis 15 years ago. The International Monetary Fund has warned that borrowing costs may need to go higher – and stay there – if the Bank of England is to bring inflation back on target. Pay packets are going up but prices are going up faster. People are getting poorer, not richer.

Clearly, this is a problem for a government that can only delay the next general election for at most 18 months. But it is also a cause for concern for Labour, which stands to inherit an economic mess and a ton of political problems, if it can end a run of four election defeats.