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The Conversation
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Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

Economic forecasts point to a Democrat win in the 2026 US midterm elections

Donald Trump Abigail Spanberger Mikie Sherrill United States Zohran Mamdani Midterm election Economy Economic Growth New Jersey New York

The resounding victories in recent elections by Democrats Zohran Mamdani in New York, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey has reinvigorated the party after a dismal year since Donald Trump became president.

The victories were not a mandate for a sharp ideological shift to the left. This may be true for Mamdani, but it is not for Spanberger and Sherrill, since both are mainstream centrist Democrats. The main reason for the victories can be seen in the chart below.

Trends in presidential job approval and Donald Trump’s handling of the economy 2025:

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