Although the Liberals won four more seats than Labor at the Tasmanian election, it’s easier for Labor to form a government. Federal polls from Morgan and Essential are also covered.
The final seat outcome for the July 19 Tasmanian state election is 14 Liberals out of 35 (steady since the March 2024 election), ten Labor (steady), five Greens (steady), five independents (up two), one Shooter, Fisher and Farmer (up one) and zero Jacqui Lambie Network (down three). The JLN did not contest this election. It’s the first time the Shooters have won a seat in a Tasmanian election.
Four of the independents (Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, Peter George and David O'Byrne) are regarded as left-leaning, while George Razay is a centrist but has left-leaning policies. Razay stood in Bass at the 2025 federal election and his voters’ preferences favoured Labor by 57–43 over the Liberals.
