The quarterback carousel is never really dormant because upgrading at that position is the ultimate goal for NFL franchises. You may have just broken an epic, yearslong playoff drought with one player, for example, and yet you are hiring a private investigator to decide just how bad it would be to sign a better player who is under investigation for more than 20 separate accounts of harassment and assault. You know how it goes.
It is a cutthroat business out there, which is why it may surprise you to see some of the names on this list. But it shouldn’t. The Packers moved on from Aaron Rodgers after years of passive aggression. Rodgers is one of the greatest players in the history of the franchise. The lifespan of an NFL player and his relationship with the team he plays for, like even the best marriage, is full of tests.
I think a lot of these players will end up staying where they are, because above-average quarterback play is precious. Aside from the very top of the 2024 draft class, which we’ll address below, a lot of these teams don’t have an obvious upgrade save for a round of musical chairs. In the case of Jimmy Garoppolo in Las Vegas or Derek Carr in New Orleans, we’ll see how much more valuable it is to participate in said game of musical chairs versus going the route of Atlanta, Washington or San Francisco and investing more resources into a mid- or late-round pick.
Either way, we’ll take our best guess as to who may be leaving, and where they might be going, when the music starts next offseason.
Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports (Cousins); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Murray)
KIRK COUSINS
Why is he on this list? Cousins is a free agent after the season ends. For the past few seasons, he has been content playing on much shorter-term fully guaranteed contracts, and, minus some change of heart by management, it would make sense for both sides to start exploring what is next. Cousins is a top-10 starter but often gets pigeonholed as the kind of player who won’t elevate a team far enough. Cousins is 1–4 in the postseason throughout his career. There should be a fair amount of discourse as to whether Cousins has been buoyed throughout his time in Minnesota with the presence of some excellent receivers, like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
Where will he end up? Cousins has a relationship with, and a skill set coveted by, Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Let’s imagine the Brock Purdy experiment doesn’t work out. A depth chart of Cousins, Purdy and Sam Darnold would ease the 49ers’ perpetual panic over whether their quarterback will remain healthy or the team will have firepower off the injured list when the games really start to matter. Cousins played for the Washington franchise during a formative time in which some of the league’s best coaches, like Matt LaFleur, Shanahan and Sean McVay were all toiling as assistants. Given the expanse of their network, it’s safe to say that Cousins will have a starting job in 2024 or a very, very high-upside backup role. Should the Vikings replicate their double-digit win total, it may also make sense to keep Cousins, given that Jefferson will likely be the highest-paid nonquarterback in the NFL by then.
KYLER MURRAY
Why is he on this list? Murray is recovering from a late-season ACL injury that may keep him off the field for a good portion of the 2023 campaign. Without a player of Murray’s caliber, the Cardinals run the risk of (or will be rewarded by) achieving a very high draft pick in what may be a transcendent QB class led by Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. If the Cardinals get the No. 1 pick, or enough ammunition to acquire that pick (they also have what is likely to be a high pick from the Texans), it would make very little sense to pass on the opportunity to draft a QB again. This would make Murray a tradeable asset despite the sizable amount of dead money remaining on his contract that would toll following a transaction. Murray was also drafted by a previous regime that has no allegiance to the ’19 No. 1 pick.
Where will he end up? If I had to guess, I would imagine the Cardinals could fare a little better than most assume they will this season and may have to hold onto Murray. Despite a very limited roster, Arizona displayed some fight under new coach Jonathan Gannon in the preseason. Should Murray become available, we’d be looking at any number of teams that would see him as an immediate upgrade. The Buccaneers, Falcons (should they not be satisfied with Desmond Ridder in 2023), Vikings, Commanders, Dolphins, Broncos, Raiders, etc. Murray would be one of the few players on this list worth exploring trading significant capital for, given his track record of playmaking ability.
JUSTIN FIELDS
Why is he on this list? Fields is entering the second-to-last year of his rookie contract. The Bears passed up the chance to make the No. 1 pick, trading it away to the Panthers, in an effort to build around Fields instead. That said, we should not interpret it as a forever declaration of support. If Fields struggles, coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles will be saddled with the same kind of pressure-mounting dilemma most teams that whiff on the position face. Fields had a breakout year in 2022 but must improve as a pure passer to secure his longevity in Chicago.
Where will he end up? I think Fields will stay with the Bears, but we’re staring out at the ocean from the shoreline. Who knows what lies ahead? If Fields is brilliant this year, the talk will be about a Lamar Jackson–like contract extension. If Fields struggles, if he gets injured, if preseason darling Tyson Bagent gets playing time and lights the world on fire, creating a Purdy–Trey Lance dynamic, what would the list of possible outcomes look like? The safest bet is on growth. Chicago has a great offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy. It continues to pour investments into its offense and continues to hit on mid- to late-round picks. All of this is a recipe for long-term success.
AARON RODGERS
Why is he on this list? Rodgers is on this list because he has consistently left the window open to retirement should this season in New York be something out of a fairy tale. That means we’d have to account for the possibility of the Jets’ needing another franchise QB next offseason to buoy their win-now roster construction. Rodgers also said that he was 90% leaning toward retirement following this past season in Green Bay. I’m not going to call him fickle, because I think we’d all struggle with a decision as weighty as early retirement. But I am going to call him human, which means there is always the chance that Rodgers will want to hang it up. There is a chance Rodgers will play three more seasons in New York. There is a chance Rodgers wants to travel to one more locale if he regains the itch for playing but decides he doesn’t want to remain with the Jets.
Where will he end up? Rodgers probably isn’t going anywhere, barring any sort of injury or massive off-field kerfuffle with a very doting management group and coaching staff. He seems invested in building something, and the Jets do have a multiyear window of competitiveness. I have always said that the best salve for Rodgers’s reputation in Green Bay was to completely dismantle it in real time while playing in the biggest media market on earth. It makes sense for this to work long-term.
MAC JONES
Why is he on this list? Jones is on this list because he plays in one of the league’s few (on field) meritocracies, and, if he struggles to jell with new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, we could view his lost season under Matt Patricia with a different perspective. Jones is closer to a toss-up at this point than to a quarterback sailing toward an obvious extension. Jones is entering the final, non-fifth-year-option year of his contract in 2024.
Where will he end up? I think Jones would have plenty of suitors. If you take the percentage of offensive skill-position talent that has graduated from the Alabama system, you’d have a large percentage of the NFL. Consequently, you also have a lot of schemes with some basic Alabama concepts baked in. Under the right circumstances, Jones is a quick processor who, at worst, can serve as a stalwart backup in this league. At best, another smart offensive mind can bring him in for an offseason competition. This is just me talking, but I’d love the idea of an organization in limbo bringing him in as a kind of Baker Mayfield–in-Tampa bridge starter for a year. Teams headed in that direction include Las Vegas, Miami, Denver, Washington, Seattle and, yes, Tampa.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
MATTHEW STAFFORD
Why is he on this list? Stafford is on this list because some assume his days of usefulness and value in Los Angeles have passed. The Rams won their Super Bowl, Stafford got his high-profile wireless company advertising contract and no one was worse for the wear. However, there are two schools of thought here, the latter of which is more worth exploring. What if Stafford ends up having a nice back nine with the Rams after all? What if this team gets competitive faster than we expected? Anyway, Stafford has to be included even though it’s very difficult to get out of his contract until after the 2026 season. I would imagine if Stafford would like to keep playing, the Rams would like to have a big, athletic, fast-processing veteran under center.
Where will he end up? I think it’s Rams or retirement for Stafford, although it’s fun to wonder what might happen if, say, L.A. bottoms out this year and Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings make a bid for his services to replace Kirk Cousins. Or, if Mike McDaniel needs a mercenary to revive the end of his Tyreek Hill window in Miami. Still, I wouldn’t spend too much time on this because every indication I have from the Rams points to their wanting Stafford to be a part of their rebuilding efforts.
DEREK CARR
Why is he on this list? Carr is on this list because he and his longtime former franchise, the Raiders, parted ways at the end of the 2022 season. This gives us insight into the belief that, perhaps, some teams do not view Carr as a stalwart franchise quarterback. The Saints have Carr under contract for four years, in theory, though the deal is easier to work its way out of after the second year. Carr is also playing for a coach under a great deal of pressure in New Orleans. Dennis Allen took over for Sean Payton and inherited a roster the Saints hoped would be competitive but has yet to live up to expectations. If there is a coaching change in New Orleans there could, too, be a change in how a new coach views the construction of his roster.
Where will he end up? Likely still in New Orleans, given that his 2024 base salary of $30 million is already guaranteed. But let’s play the game anyway. Washington would make sense if Ron Rivera were to need a quarterback and the Commanders felt like they were one player away from competing. Carr and Commanders defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio were once a pair. Carr’s former offensive coordinator and position coach, Greg Olson, is in Seattle. Carr, who was born in California, could also want to spend the tail end of his career closer to home full time. Would the Rams or 49ers have some space for him?
RUSSELL WILSON
Why is he on this list? Because his 2022 season was a disaster. That season followed an injury-impacted and statistically less-great ’21, after an excellent ’20 in which Wilson threw 40 touchdown passes. With Sean Payton now entrenched in Denver, Wilson has no more allies. It is Payton’s way or the highway, which means the general manager who traded for Wilson no longer gets to blame the quarterback’s decline on a former head coach. There is a chance Wilson will be able to reinvent himself in Denver or regain the athleticism that allowed him to spend an eternity in the backfield. But there is also the chance that his presence in Denver will become a counterweight to progress. In that case, Denver would need to facilitate a trade or find a way to move on.
Where will he end up? Sunday Night Football on NBC? A pregame show on some streaming network? Wilson, if nothing else, can present well. While he may end up being a bag of clichés as a broadcaster, his perspective would be a valuable one. We are in an era of quarterbacks representing all shapes and sizes. I would love to hear Wilson tell me how Kyler Murray completes a pass, or Bryce Young, or what it feels like to be hit by Von Miller. I just don’t see Wilson fitting in as a backup stylistically. He was such a unique player during his athletic prime, but he carries with him a cachet that might be difficult for a younger player to handle.
JIMMY GAROPPOLO
Why is he on this list? Garoppolo is on this list because, if Las Vegas has a bad season, it would make sense to see the entirety of that brain trust cleared out. Should that happen, there would be no former Patriots coaches with a Garoppolo allegiance remaining. After this season, there is not a prohibitive amount of dead money remaining on Garoppolo’s Raiders deal. He has been brilliant at times but does struggle to stay healthy. His lack of mobility also leaves him a bit behind the times in terms of what most coordinators are looking for.
Where will he end up? Boy, given that Mac Jones is on this list, wouldn’t an end-of-career reunion with Bill Belichick sound like fun? It would also, aside from a Shanahan-inspired reunion in Miami, in the case of a Tua Tagovailoa flameout, probably be one of the few remaining options on Garoppolo’s dossier. There will always be a market for Garoppolo as a high-end backup, but what kind of appeal does that ultimately hold for a person who is incredibly marketable outside of football?
JARED GOFF
Why is he on this list? If Goff plays as well this season as he did last season, he will go into a final walk year of his contract woefully underpaid and with the leverage to hold out. That could force the Lions, who took a developmental swing on Hendon Hooker in the 2023 draft, to commit long-term (or long-term-ish) or let Goff go. Goff, just like in Los Angeles, is susceptible to this idea that he is a product of a great system. First, it was Sean McVay. Now, it’s soon-to-be head coach (and current Lions offensive coordinator) Ben Johnson.
Where will he end up? I can’t imagine Detroit changing gears unless the Lions are the No. 1 landing spot for the best free agent on the market. And, even then, who would that be? Would the Lions blow it all up for Kirk Cousins? Would they trade for Kyler Murray? Would they assume that they can get Goff-level production out of a Ryan Tannehill? Or, would they do the most sensible thing (as we see it right now), which is to bump Goff up to Daniel Jones’s pay territory and sign him to a three- or four-year extension. Goff, after all, is just 29 years old. Now, if Johnson gets a head coaching job somewhere and the place is an absolute QB wasteland, could that relationship spark the tinder of trade conversations and an eventual extension? Who knows. For now, it seems, Goff is the Lions’ man of the present and near future.
GENO SMITH
Why is he on this list? Smith is here because the Seahawks can twist their way out of his contract after this year if they so choose. Despite its initially reported length and total salary, there really isn’t guaranteed money after the first year of Smith’s deal. He stunned the NFL last year during his Comeback Player of the Year season, supplanting Russell Wilson and bringing the Seahawks to the postseason. Seattle handed Smith the new “three-year” deal this offseason, but, in essence, it does not prevent the team from looking elsewhere, especially via the draft.
Where will he end up? Heck, if Smith keeps playing well and he reaches roster bonuses beyond the 2023 season, he’d essentially be paid as much as a highly drafted quarterback on a rookie deal, albeit for about half the length of time. Seattle backup Drew Lock is an unrestricted free agent following this season, which could free up a spot for a more developmental quarterback to play behind Smith for one more season. If I had to venture a guess as to where Smith might go if the Seahawks cut bait, he played for current Colts head coach Shane Steichen with the Chargers. Indianapolis backup Gardner Minshew’s contract runs out at the end of the season, leaving a vacancy behind Anthony Richardson. Smith’s former quarterbacks coach with the Giants, Mike Sullivan, is currently in Pittsburgh. The Steelers extended Mitch Trubisky through 2025 but could easily back out of his deal with little financial ramification if they see the potential for a major upgrade.
RYAN TANNEHILL
Why is he on this list? Tannehill is a free agent after this year, and the Titans drafted quarterbacks relatively high in each of the last two drafts, Malik Willis (third round, 2022) and Will Levis (second round, ’23). Tannehill has been good-to-almost-excellent in Tennessee and, like Cousins, has played efficient football for large swaths of time. Tannehill is 2–3 in the postseason, leading Tennessee on an AFC title game run back in ’20. It would seem as though Tannehill and the Titans are ready to mutually call it quits, or, more likely, the Titans are hoping to strike it rich with someone on a rookie deal and spend their limited capital elsewhere.
Where will he end up? The good news for Tannehill is that, I’d imagine, he’ll start somewhere in the NFL next year. Maybe the Titans, as I’ve predicted, will go on a bit of a run and sign him to a short-term deal until Levis or Willis fully matures. More than likely, Tannehill will be high-end insurance or starting-level competition for any number of teams that run an offense he’s familiar with. Arthur Smith with the Titans, Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers, Matt LaFleur with the Packers, Nathaniel Hackett with the Jets, Bobby Slowik with the Texans … all of them could benefit from having someone like Tannehill in the room. Some of them would even consider him an upgrade, potentially.
DAK PRESCOTT
Why is he on this list? Prescott is entering the third year of his four-year, $160 million contract. He is now the third-highest-paid quarterback in his division, behind Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones. Prescott is also coming off one of his clunkiest seasons as a professional. Despite all this, he is a top-eight quarterback when healthy. His future gets interesting because the Cowboys have arrived at a massive decision-point season. Mike McCarthy has been there since 2020. And while we sometimes make too much of Jerry Jones’s desire to win, it would be fair to wonder what will happen to the coach if Dallas doesn’t have a season that measures up to Jones’s definition of success. And with a change in coaching staff would likely come a change in philosophy and whatever it is a coach may value. Still, Prescott is a stalwart QB despite one uncharacteristically sloppy stretch of football. We include him because, sooner rather than later, Dallas will have to reengage him in long-term contract discussions. Prescott secured a major win in his first long-term deal by shortening the length and allowing him the opportunity to break the bank again before he hits his mid-30s.
Where will he end up? If Prescott were to hit the trade market with one year remaining on his deal, I would count him as a clear upgrade (2023 rookies notwithstanding) in Miami, New England, Denver, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Washington, Seattle, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Only two of these teams can get top-two picks next year. If the rest of them would like to compete and are, for whatever reason, tired of their current quarterbacking situation, might Dallas pick up the phone?
Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports
JORDAN LOVE
Why is he on this list? Jordan Love has one year remaining on his contract following the end of the 2023 season. The ’24 year was a reimagined fifth-year option with some upside. Love is here because he is fully grasping the wheel for the first time as an NFL starter, and we cannot be completely sure what that process will yield. He’s almost certainly going to get a two-year window of time to establish his talent. But like other quarterbacks on this list, one can never fully know what lies ahead on the road. Love plays in a competitive division with a roster that is still rounding into its competitive peak. Could there be any measure of pressure for Green Bay to sideline him if he struggles mightily in ’23?
Where will he end up? Love will be the Packers’ starting quarterback in 2024 and beyond. Mark my words. But … if he’s not, I would imagine there would be more than a small handful of teams eyeing him as a long-term backup option. Love’s schematic match would pair well with the staffs of the Jets, Texans, Dolphins, Bears, 49ers and Falcons.
ZACH WILSON
Why is he on this list? Wilson is on this list because the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft was benched last season and replaced in ’23 by Aaron Rodgers. Additionally, the No. 3 pick in the ’21 draft, Trey Lance, was just traded to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick. It would seem the market value has been established, though Lance clearly has more upside given his size and rawness. I think the plan is absolutely to have Wilson behind Aaron Rodgers, learning for a chance to reclaim his starting spot before the finalization of his rookie deal in ’24 (or, perhaps, by earning through his backup duties a kind of Jordan Love–like extension that takes the place of a fifth-year option).
Where will he end up? I imagine Wilson will stay in New York. The Jets have a plan, and they want to have their $13 hot dog and eat it, too. But … I wonder what the Jets would do if someone offered them a Trey Lance–type deal. Wilson struggled during his time with the Jets, but he’s very young (just a year older than college players Michael Penix Jr. at Washington and Bo Nix at Oregon). I think this upcoming class of coaches could be full of what one might call quarterback whisperers. For example, Josh McCown, now the quarterbacks coach in Carolina and a hot coaching prospect, once said that he liked Wilson more than Trevor Lawrence. What if he’s starting somewhere with no quarterback depth chart—just an example, relax—and decides to pull the trigger on Wilson to get him through Year 1 with upside?
TUA TAGOVAILOA
Why is he on this list? I think there is a fair argument to be made that Tagovailoa doesn’t deserve to be on this list. He played well last season when given the opportunity in an offense designed for him. A series of head injuries sustained last year are not Tagovailoa’s fault, and even if they lead to some legitimate speculation as to whether his body can sustain the course of an NFL season, would we be questioning the future of another quarterback in a similar situation? Maybe. Maybe not. But play this hypothetical game with me: Let’s say the Dolphins are, like last year, good but not great. If you are Mike McDaniel and you are heading into a critical third year, in which most coaches either get contract extensions or are left to fend for themselves, are you going to take Tagovailoa as your top option? Or are you going to see what the market has to offer and dangle a high-wire offense with a bunch of great wide receivers to see who might be interested?
Where will he end up? The Dolphins picked up Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option, and it makes the most sense for him to remain in Miami. However, like we said before, what else could potentially happen that would lead us down a path where the Dolphins either need a quarterback or they need a slightly better one? Tagovailoa is accurate and athletic, and he’s still growing as a player. But as we mentioned up top, there have been other projects of this kind dismantled for the sake of a quicker fix.
