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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted June 11–15 from a sample of 1,607, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (steady since the May post-budget Resolve poll), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 14% (up two), One Nation 6% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 11% (down one) and others 4% (up two).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two party estimate, but applying 2022 preference flows to this poll would give Labor about a 51–49 lead, unchanged since May. This is where the good news from this poll ends for Labor.

Peter Dutton has taken a 36–35 lead as preferred PM over Anthony Albanese, a reversal of a 40–32 lead for Albanese in May. The preferred PM measure usually skews to incumbents relative to voting intentions. This is the first time any national poll has given Dutton a preferred PM lead.

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