Think of French rugby and what springs instantly to mind? With apologies to Antoine Dupont and friends, it is still the epic pre-match lunch some of us chanced upon in Bordeaux a couple of decades ago. The pièce de résistance was the arrival of 80 huge platters of oysters, carried triumphantly in to a jazz band serenade as hundreds of guests stood and whirled their napkins aloft. When the mood takes them, the French “do” rugby like nowhere else on earth.
And, mon Dieu, are they up for it. If anyone was to dream up an event that, anticipation-wise, ticked every conceivable box it would unquestionably be this year’s men’s Rugby World Cup. The host nation was keen enough in 2007, when they last staged the global extravaganza, but this time even Paris’s grandest buildings already have Dupont’s image draped across them. Gallic excitement levels are off the scale from Toulon to Le Touquet.
A potential feast of rugby hopefully awaits everyone else, too. Bizarre as it may sound to those who have been watching England lately, this tournament has all the ingredients to justify the hype. There are more possible winners than ever and, just as crucially, a greater capacity for shock results. If the last World Cup in Japan in 2019 captured many neutral imaginations, this year’s prime-time European TV slot offers a chance to woo millions more.
With the 10th edition now a few days away, the only nagging question surrounds rugby’s ability to grasp fully its ultimate champagne moment, starting with France against New Zealand in Saint Denis on Friday night. The lurking issues surrounding tackle height and longer-term brain health can not simply be airbrushed from the entire tableau. Battalions of dazed or unconscious players will not just intensify the wider existential debate but act as a serious passion killer as well.
For all these reasons and more, this has the distinct feel of a defining moment for a sport whose leading officials, as recently as 40 years ago, remained suspicious of the whole World Cup concept. Key to its inception, in the end, was the decision of England’s representative, John Kendall-Carpenter, and his Welsh counterpart, Keith Rowlands, to vote yes in Paris on 21 March 1985 when, with Scotland and Ireland voting against, the result might otherwise have been split.
A decent lunch, it turns out, may also have helped. According to a fascinating and detailed new biography of Kendall-Carpenter, this volte-face may have owed something to a cunning plan hatched by France’s representatives, Albert Ferrasse and André Bosc. Their idea was to whisk all the board members down to Lyon by high-speed TGV train for a spectacular meal and then return them to the capital, fortified by some fine wines and less inclined to knock back the proposal.
Which is what duly unfolded. Two years later, the inaugural tournament was held in Australia and New Zealand and its immense potential was instantly clear. Only once since then, however, has the northern hemisphere produced a winner. Before England finally stepped up in 2003, the south had reigned supreme for the first four incarnations. New Zealand and South Africa have since shared the past four world titles, with England (twice), France and Australia the beaten finalists.
A European champion, therefore, really would make a statement. It is complicated, however, by a draw that even Machiavelli would have rejected as overly cruel and heartless. As a consequence of World Rugby’s counterproductive desire to confirm the pools almost three years in advance, only two of France, South Africa, Ireland and New Zealand can advance beyond the last eight. While it makes for some eye-catching pool games, and a thunderous set of quarter-finals, the disparity between the draw’s respective halves is little short of ludicrous.
It even offers an underperforming England a possible route to the semis. Assuming they can make it out of their pool – and Argentina and Samoa will have been encouraged by last Saturday’s 30-22 loss to Fiji – they would probably face Australia, Fiji or Wales in the quarter-finals in Marseille. In that event demons would be hiding around every corner from a red rose perspective. Knocked over by an Eddie Jones-coached Wallabies? A Warren Gatland-guided Wales? Or Fiji – again. None of it would be remotely dignified.
Of more immediate relevance is a compelling opening weekend. Should Wales lose to the rising Fijians in Bordeaux, say, the pressure to overcome Australia in Lyon a fortnight later will be colossal.
Gatland, a proven tournament specialist, will be hoping his back-row turnover kings can keep Wales in games and that injuries do not erode his best XV. While they looked more energetic than England in their August warm-ups, Gatland will have performed a truly remarkable rebuilding job if his young, reshuffled squad can go deep.
Scotland, similarly, will be cursing their luck before their opening Pool B fixture and there has been a hopeful theory doing the rounds that a sluggish South Africa might be vulnerable to a fizzing Scottish backline in Marseille.
While it sounded vaguely plausible 10 days ago, the Boks have since transformed perceptions by hammering the All Blacks 35-7 in last month’s warm-up game at Twickenham. Defeat, if it materialises, would leave Scotland’s campaign resting on their final pool game against Ireland. If they go home early, it will not be an entirely accurate reflection of their true worth.
Nor will Ireland be looking much beyond their pool encounter with the Springboks in Paris on 23 September. If it feels mad to suggest the world’s No 1-ranked side need to find another gear to make the last four, that is the stark reality. They also need key individuals to stay fit, not least in the front-row and at fly-half. That said, Jack Crowley appears to have a bit about him should Johnny Sexton be sidelined again at any stage.
Calm heads and patience are going to be required. If there is one certainty it is that red and yellow cards will shape a lot of destinies. The competition has also been extended by a week, theoretically good news for player welfare. The thick end of eight weeks, even so, is a long time to keep everything simmering on the stove. How will New Zealand be feeling, for example, if they collapse in a heap against France on opening night? And how ready will they be for a quarter-final against either South Africa or Ireland with intervening games against Namibia, Italy and Uruguay?
With a relatively small number of midweek fixtures, the event will also have the occasional lull. Look beyond the highest-profile marquee games, though, and there are some tantalising possibilities. Will Georgia’s scrum inconvenience Australia first up? Could Italy catch a few by surprise? And what about Samoa, who came close to upsetting Ireland in Bayonne last Saturday. Argentina, with their backline invention and a world-class goalkicker in Emiliano Boffelli, could easily make the semi-finals.
England? It is reaching the point where some sympathy is involved, so lacklustre has been their recent form. It is still not impossible they could rally and sneak home, say, by a point against the Pumas to encourage some belated bulldog spirit. But whether that would be a good result for the longer-term prosperity of the English game is another matter; if the August warm-up games taught us anything it is that a fresh approach is required on and off the field.
Wiping the quadrennial dust off the crystal ball, then, the last eight may just comprise France, New Zealand, South Africa, Ireland, Australia, Fiji, Argentina and England. And when the grand finale is staged in Paris on the evening of 28 October, it would not be a monumental surprise to find France and South Africa staring each other out across the halfway line.
At that point, with a host nation preparing for the biggest bash since their men’s footballers won a World Cup on home soil in 1998, how many would bet against Dupont, Grégory Aldritt, Jonathan Danty, Gaël Fickou, Damian Penaud et al as they await their date with destiny?
Even the formidable Boks would be hard pushed to stop them. Bonne chance to all involved, either way, not least the restaurateurs of France as they order extra oysters and champagne and prepare for their own gastronomic World Cup. The mother of all napkin-whirling celebrations could yet await.
• The caption for the main image on this article was amended on 3 September 2023. The player on this right is Joe Marchant, not Ellis Genge as an earlier version said.
