Today Defence Minister Peter Dutton is squaring off against his Labor opposite, Brendan O’Connor, in a live National Press Club debate.
It’s true that in an era when even leaders debates are becoming increasingly irrelevant to the voting public, a clash like this is unlikely to really move the dial. But this is one of just two policy debates at the press club the parties agreed to, and one area the government is trying to weaponise to its advantage.
Dutton has spent a year in his portfolio talking up the prospect of war and accusing Labor of being weak on national security. And if Labor is elected and O’Connor takes on the role, he’ll have his work cut out for him.
Here are a few things to look out for in the debate.
Will Dutton mention the war?
Since becoming defence minister last year, Dutton has loved beating the drums. An increasingly aggressive China, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have only made his warnings more strident.
On Anzac Day Dutton warned Australia needed to “prepare for war”. In other words, he loves talking about the risk of conflict in the Asia-Pacific in a tone that continues to antagonise Beijing. Expect plenty more of this. Also expect accusations Labor won’t be competent enough to lead Australia through such a war.
Will Dutton go rogue?
The blunt-spoken Dutton is one of the government’s key attack dogs, and that’s particularly true on issues around defence and national security. He and Prime Minister Scott Morrison spent the final days of the 46th Parliament essentially claiming Labor was the favoured party of Beijing.
So shrill was this rhetoric that national security chiefs had to step in and tell them to cool it. While things have been a little less heated on the campaign trail, the attack clearly felt like a desperate move of a government with its back against the wall.
With the government still struggling to narrow the polling gap, the debate gives Dutton a chance to hammer this stuff hard. Expect him to accuse Labor of “taking China’s side” or something like that, even though the parties are in lockstep. Also expect a lot of talk about how Labor cut defence spending during the Rudd-Gillard years, even though a) those attacks are pretty spurious, and b) Labor has repeatedly pledged to match the government on this.
Who is Brendan O’Connor?
Another line of attack for Dutton and the government has been to focus on their opposite number, going after O’Connor as being inexperienced and lacking the profile for the portfolio. Meanwhile, Dutton is the sixth defence minister since the Abbott government was elected in 2013.
And O’Connor is hardly a rookie — he has been an MP since 2001, briefly a minister in 2013, and a member of Labor’s shadow cabinet ever since Labor has been in opposition.
Still he undoubtedly has a lower public profile than Dutton, as well as other key Labor frontbenchers who’ve been in the spotlight during the campaign. How he handles a major national debate will be interesting.
There are also whispers he could lose the portfolio back to Deputy Leader Richard Marles if Labor is reelected. A strong performance today might change that.
Can Labor make national security an asset?
The government attacks hard on national security because, in spite of its chaotic handling of foreign affairs, it views the issue as a winner.
But Labor has done well to neutralise the attack, and in the Solomon Islands-China security pact, it has the potential gift of a major national security blunder by the government blowing up in the middle of the campaign.
The opposition responded to that productively by announcing policy on building ties with the Pacific. It’s enough to neutralise the government’s perceived advantage on defence and national security, and could give O’Connor a crucial line of attack in today’s debate.
