After the Federal Reserve opted against loosening interest rates last month, companies are once again concerned about inflation—and less confident in their ability to navigate the challenges it poses, like tighter lending markets and more discriminating investors.
That’s the prevailing sentiment from some of the world’s top executives participating in the latest Fortune and Deloitte survey. We have been collaborating since the summer of 2020 to regularly check the temperature of CEOs in the Fortune 500, Fortune Global 500, and other select companies.
Fielded in the days immediately following the Fed’s June meeting, the U.S. central bank’s decision to hold off was likely fresh in the mind of many a chief executive. The Fed also revised the number of predicted cuts this year from three in March to just one, signaling monetary conditions still need to remain restrictive in order to cool down an overheated U.S. economy. Policymakers also anticipated higher inflation over the next 18 months than they did in March, according to the Fed’s June economic projections.
Although the outlook for the broader economy among CEOs changed very little compared to the February survey, their views on their respective industries’ futures have since darkened. Pessimism rose from the 8% previously registered to 13% in June.
This shift was also reflected in their sentiment towards their own companies, where 25% responded they were now only neutral about their future, or even downbeat (3%), compared with 19% and 1%, respectively, early this year.
The big picture
Inflation rose as a concern compared to data from our February survey. The share of CEOs citing the issue as among their greatest three concerns over the next 12 months surged abruptly to 45% from 27%.
CEOs also reported feeling less assured they can cope with the challenges that inflation poses. Confidence in their ability to weather inflationary pressures dropped to 43% from 63% a year ago when they were last asked this question.
The numbers to know
60% … of CEOs still view geopolitical stability over inflation as their single greatest concern, even prior to the attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life.
46% … of CEOs think that November’s U.S. elections could create new hazards in the areas of both tax and regulatory compliance.
19% … of CEOs regularly use generative AI tools as part of their job.
0% … of CEOs consider COVID a potential threat to their businesses, down from 2% in February. This comes despite a recent jump in cases, including President Joe Biden.
Inflation problems
Inflationary concerns rose to 45%, nearly hitting last autumn’s 51% response rate of CEOs citing the issue as among their top three risk factors. While inflation has been on the decline in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates stubbornly high due to persistent pricing pressure in the service sector.
On a brighter note, CEOs seem less and less worried about labor shortages amid a recent softening in the U.S. jobs market. Now that the unemployment rate crossed 4% in May for the first time since the start of 2022, staffing concerns are steadily fading from view, falling to 20% in June compared with 36% last summer.
Political matters
With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, volatility on the world stage continues to pose challenges for CEOs. Geopolitical instability—everything from political unrest to economic sanctions and humanitarian crises—remains easily the most common headache, with 60% citing it as one of their top 3 concerns. More respondents however felt either confident or very confident (51%) in their ability to navigate the challenge than they did last June (38%).
The great uncertainty factor stems from the November elections, billed by numerous pundits as the most important in U.S. history. The Democrats—likely led by Kamala Harris after Biden’s decision to drop out—and the dominant conservative wing of Donald Trump’s Republican Party offer up competing visions for America’s future. The two poles differ greatly in regard to taxes, security, and the country’s role in the world, as well as immigration, energy, and labor relations.
When asked specifically about what area of their business would be most affected by the outcome of the election, the top two responses were taxes and regulation with 46% each. Immediately following with 45% came international trade and import tariffs.
DEI remains a priority
The survey also found CEOs still saw value in policies that promote diversity, equity, and inclusion at their companies and guard against groupthink. For example, 40% reported they were embedding DEI into their strategic priorities and goals as CEO. A further 31% prioritized setting measurable targets with their executive team to gauge progress. Also popular were providing regular updates on DEI to their board as well as the establishment of identity-based employee resource groups, which polled 30% in each case.
The support for DEI comes as plenty of leaders contest its merits, chief among them entrepreneur Elon Musk and billionaire investor Bill Ackman. A controversial New York Post op-ed recently proclaimed that Vice President Kamala Harris would be “the country’s first DEI president” and the failure of departing Director Kim Cheatle’s Secret Service to prevent the attempt on Trump’s life has sparked questions about whether it should hire female agents in the first place.
When it came to the top barriers CEOs face when advancing DEI efforts, only 14% identified public backlash while just 5% blamed a lack of buy-in across their organizations. Instead, the two most often cited responses were competing priorities (33%) as well as talent acquisition/retention and employee engagement (30%).
AI used to cut costs, not write code
Interest in generative AI continues to grow, as CEOs reported they are more inclined to implement the technology in seven out of nine areas surveyed than they were in the February survey.
Increasing the efficiency of their company remains by far the most popular benefit of the technology, with a resounding 97% of CEOs reporting they have either already implemented it for that purpose or expressed a likelihood of doing so.
But two of the most common applications for gen AI saw a drop in interest. Whereas data from our winter survey found 85% and 67% of companies either were using gen AI to automate content generation and write code or planning to do so, those figures dropped respectively to 81% and 59% now.
For the first time, the survey asked whether CEOs themselves were experimenting with the technology. While 12% admitted they have never used it so much as once, nearly one in five responded they were regularly using it to support their work.
Robert Stevens
