Dow Jones futures fell slightly Wednesday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, while crude oil jumped amid continued Mideast fears. Nike reported earnings Tuesday night with Tesla deliveries on tap before the open.
The stock market rally suffered significant losses Tuesday as Iran launched nearly 200 missiles vs. Israel. The major indexes came off intraday lows after the attack caused little damage, but faded again into the close. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 suffered the biggest declines, but did hold key support.
Stronger-than-expected job openings and negative news on Apple iPhone demand also were headwinds, along with the East Coast port strike.
CBOE Global Markets, Ryan Specialty Holdings and AeroVironment flashed buy signals.
Tesla is expected to report third-quarter deliveries early Wednesday. That follows record EV deliveries from several China EV makers, including giant BYD. BYD cleared a long-term base Tuesday while Tesla stock is near a buy point, but both look extended.
Humana continued to crash early Wednesday as it warned of lower Medicare Advantage margins with just 25% of its 2025 Advantage plans getting four-star ratings from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. That's down from 94% in 2024. That means lower bonus payments from Medicare.
CBOE stock is on SwingTrader. Ryan stock is on the IBD 50. Ryan Specialty was Tuesday's IBD Stock Of The Day.
The video embedded in this article reviews Tuesday's market action and analyzes CBOE Global Markets, Ryan Specialty Holdings and AVAV stock.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures fell 0.2% vs. fair value, with Nike stock a drag. S&P 500 futures declined 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.3%.
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 3.76%.
Crude oil futures jumped more than 3% to $72 a barrel.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Earnings
Nike earnings tumbled in fiscal Q1 2025, but topped views. Revenue fell 10%, slightly missing. The Dow Jones giant withdrew guidance and delayed an investor day as it awaits a CEO shift. In late September, Nike announced that longtime company vet Elliott Hill would return to become CEO, with John Donahoe stepping down on Oct. 13.
Nike stock fell sharply in premarket trade. Shares edged up 0.8% to 89.13 on Tuesday, still below the 200-day line. NKE stock hit a 14-year low in August.
Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally fell back Tuesday in anticipation of Tehran launching ballistic missiles at Israel. After the actual Iran missile attack, the key indexes came off intraday lows. If Mideast violence doesn't further escalate, markets may soon rebound. But fighting has steadily increased over the past year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% in Tuesday's stock market trading and the S&P 500 index lost 0.9%, both backing off Monday's record close. The Nasdaq composite slumped 1.5%, back below the 18,000 level. But it did bounce off the 21-day line after skidding more than 2%.
The small-cap Russell 2000 slumped 1.5%, just holding the 21-day line.
U.S. crude oil prices rose 2.4% to $69.83 a barrel on the Iran attack vs. Israel, but that was well off intraday highs of $71.94.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 3.74%, paring losses from just below 3.7%.
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ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF retreated 1.4%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF gave up 2.1%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF slumped 2.7%
Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF shed 2.8% and ARK Genomics ETF lost 2.9%. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest's ETFs. Cathie Wood also owns a small BYD stock stake.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF edged up 0.2%. U.S. Global Jets ETF descended 1.25%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF dipped 0.2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF bounced 2.3% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 0.5%
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund rose a fraction.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF dropped 0.5%.
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Tesla Deliveries
Tesla is expected to report Q3 deliveries and production figures before Wednesday's open, along with energy storage deployed. Tesla deliveries are expected to be 462,000, up 6% vs. Q3 2023, when the Model 3 update rollout was getting underway. There are some reports that deliveries could top 470,000. Tesla deliveries hit a record 484,507 in Q4 2023.
Tesla is being led by China sales, with the U.S. market so-so and Europe weak. China sales, already relatively low margin, have gotten a boost from zero-interest financing incentives, as well as higher government subsidies.
The EV giant pulled the base Model 3 RWD from the U.S. on Tuesday, leading the Model 3 Long Range RWD as the entry model.
Tesla deliveries will follow record September or third-quarter sales from EV giant BYD, Nio, XPeng, Li Auto and Geely-owned Zeekr. BYD sold a record 1,134,892 vehicles in Q3, up 37.3% vs. a year earlier and 7.6% vs. Q2's 986,720. Plug-in hybrids are fueling the gains. Tesla should remain No. 1 in BEV sales in Q3.
Tesla Fall On Deliveries As BYD Soars On Booming Sales
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock fell 1.4% to 258.02, off intraday lows. Shares are working on a cup-base buy point of 271. However, TSLA stock is extended from the 50-day line. Also, after Tesla deliveries, the Oct. 10 robotaxi day and Q3 earnings are on deck.
Shares edged lower early Wednesday heading into Tesla deliveries.
BYD stock leapt 4.9% to 37.30, clearing a 14-month cup base with a 36.27 buy point to hit a two-year high. But shares are 25% above their 50-day.
Nio stock, Li Auto, XPeng and Zeekr all advanced strongly Tuesday, after skyrocketing last month from near significant lows. All four stocks were up significantly early Wednesday.
Apple Stock
Apple stock fell 2.9% to 226.21, but closed above its 21-day line. That's after offering an early entry Monday and nearly clearing a handle buy point of 233.09.
Apple may be cutting iPhone 16 production by 3 million for the December-ended quarter, Barclays said Tuesday, citing supply-chain checks.
Stocks In Buy Areas
CBOE stock rose 2.4% to 209.84, rebounding from the 50-day/10-week lines clearly and breaking a downtrend within a flat base. The flat base, part of a base-on-base formation, has a 216.14 official buy point.
Ryan Specialty stock advanced 2.7% to 68.20. The insurance broker briefly topped a 69.03 cup-base buy point, according to MarketSurge. Shares are trading around a 68.47 early entry from a too-short handle. RYAN stock is already actionable from breaking the downtrend of the handle.
AeroVironment popped 5.3% to 211.09, briefly topping a 211.44 cup-with-handle buy point intraday. Earlier Tuesday, the drone maker cleared a short-term high within the handle as well as a trendline from the top of the base.
What To Do Now
The stock market rally generally lost ground amid the Iran missile attack, but came off lows.
If the market recovers fully from Tuesday, a number of stocks could look interesting, reclaiming buy points or flashing new entries from handles or pullbacks.
Work on your watchlists, paying attention to stocks showing relative strength. Don't have tunnel vision, focusing only on tech growth names. The Nasdaq has been a laggard the past few months.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
