Dow Jones futures rose strongly Thursday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as global markets kick off 2025.
The stock market ended a strong 2024 on a weak note. The Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight session, nearing key support that other indexes have already broken.
CyberArk Software made a bullish move Tuesday, but recent buys have struggled in the current choppy market.
Nvidia fell modestly Tuesday after hopping above its 50-day line Monday.
Tesla stock fell below a key level Tuesday. Shares edged higher overnight as the Tesla Cybertruck became eligible for tax credits. Tesla will report fourth-quarter and full-year deliveries and production figures early Thursday.
China EV makers and Tesla rivals BYD, XPeng, Li Auto, Nio and Zeekr all reported record monthly sales on Wednesday. Notably, BYD raced past Tesla in terms of fully electric battery vehicles (BEVs) for the fourth quarter.
Nvidia stock is a hedged position on IBD Leaderboard, with Tesla on the Leaderboard watchlist.
The video embedded in the article discusses the overall market rally and analyzes CyberArk stock, Nvidia and Tesla.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures were up 0.8% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.1%.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell several basis points to 4.52%. Crude oil rose more than 1%. Bitcoin made a strong gain to start 2025.
European manufacturing readings signaled continued contraction, with Germany particularly weak.
The Caixin China manufacturing index fell 1 point to 50.5 vs. an estimated 51.7. That follows a weaker-than-expected official China manufacturing report, also just above the break-even 50 level.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally quickly erased early gains and turned lower, with the Nasdaq leading the decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 0.1% in Tuesday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index, which fell back below its 50-day line on Monday, gave up 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite fell 0.9% to just above its 50-day line after undercutting its 21-day on Monday. It was the Nasdaq's lowest close since Nov. 29, when the index began its last mini-run of the year.
The small-cap Russell 2000 edged up 0.1%, but slashed strong early gains as it hit 10-day line resistance once again.
For 2024, the S&P 500 jumped 23.3% after 2023's 24.2% advance, capping a two-year gain of 53.2%, the best since 1997-98. The Nasdaq leaped 28.6% in 2024. The Dow Jones advanced 12.9% in the past year.
U.S. crude oil prices rose 1% to $71.72 a barrel on Tuesday, up 7 cents for the year.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose three basis points on Tuesday to 4.58%. Up 72 basis points for the full year, the 10-year yield has surged 98 basis points from its 2024 low of 3.6% set on Sept. 17, just before the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, Innovator IBD 50 sank 1.8% Tuesday. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF gave up 0.8%, with CyberArk stock a member. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF lost 1%, with Nvidia stock the dominant holding.
ARK Innovation retreated 1.5% and ARK Genomics declined 0.7%. Tesla stock is a major holding across ARK Invest's ETFs. Cathie Wood's Ark also has a big Nvidia stake.
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF rose 0.85%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders was flat. The Energy Select SPDR ETF rallied 1.3%, and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund climbed 0.2%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund dipped 0.1%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF edged up 0.1%.
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Nvidia Stock
Nvidia stock fell 2.3% to 134.29 on Tuesday, back below the 21-day line. On Monday, the AI chip giant initially shrugged off market weakness, peaking above the 50-day line before giving up most of its early gains.
Nvidia has a shallow double-bottom base with a 146.54 buy point, right next to the top of a prior base. The Dec. 24 high of 141.90 could serve as an early entry.
NVDA stock rose slightly early Thursday.
Tesla Deliveries
Tesla will report fourth-quarter and full-year deliveries and production figures on Thursday, likely around 9 a.m. ET. Analysts expect record Tesla Q4 deliveries of slightly above 500,000. Elon Musk, on the Q3 earnings call, predicted full-year deliveries would slightly top 2024's 1,808,591. To do that, the EV giant must reach 514,925 in Q4.
Tesla has offered various discounts and incentives to boost demand. China has been strong, while the U.S. and especially Europe have been weak.
The company also will disclose battery storage deployments for Q4.
While the deliveries and storage figures will be key for Q4 earnings, they may not have a huge impact on Tesla stock. TSLA stock's huge gains in recent months have come on optimism about self-driving, AI, robotics and more, with a Trump administration seen easing the regulatory path.
Tesla Cybertruck, Model Y News
The dual-motor Cybertruck that starts at $79,990 finally appears to be eligible for the $7,500 IRA tax credit, according to a government website. Tesla's website does not yet show that. Cybertruck sales were sluggish in Q4, despite the end of the higher-priced "Foundation series," in part due to the delayed tax credit.
Tesla stores in China reportedly are starting to take orders for the refreshed Model Y. Production of the "Juniper" Model Y has been picking up at the Shanghai plant, with China deliveries likely starting in February, after the Lunar New Year holidays. The updated Model Y, followed by a yet-unseen "affordable" model, are likely the two big drivers for the EV business in 2025.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock retreated 3.25% to 403.84 on Tuesday, its fourth straight loss. Early on, TSLA stock rebounded from its 21-day moving average, but ultimately closed below that key short-term level for the first time since Oct 24.
Still, Tesla bagged a 62.5% gain in 2024, virtually all of that in the fourth quarter.
Shares slightly higher early Thursday.
China EV Makers
China EV makers reported monthly, quarterly and annual sales.
BYD reported December sales of 514,809, Li Auto 58,513, XPeng 36,695, Nio 31,318 and Zeekr 27,190, all records. Li, which just topped 500,000 sales for 2024, came in below its target for Q4. XPeng, fueled by its P7+ and subbrand Mona M03, exceeded 190,000 deliveries for the year, exceeding its Q4 forecast. Nio, buoyed by its Onvo L60 subbrand, was in line with its target range. Zeekr did not have a Q4 forecast, but targeted 2025 deliveries of 320,000 vs. just over 222,000 in 2024.
BYD sold 1,542,270 EVs in Q4, including plug-in hybrids, with surging overseas sales and commercial vehicles providing a boost in December. For passenger vehicles, BYD sold 918,556 PHEVs and 595,413 BEVs. BYD will easily top Tesla in BEVs for Q4.
For the full year, BYD's sales swelled 41.3% to 4,272,145, topping its target of 4 million. Passenger BEVs should fall slightly below Tesla's final tally.
How To Invest: When To Buy And Sell Stocks In Bull And Bear Markets
What To Do Now
A choppy market is the most dangerous for investors. Various stocks will flash buy signals, luring traders in, but will tend to quickly fall back.
Standing pat with significant exposure, perhaps cutting recent buys as they struggle, remains a sound strategy.
Work on watchlists, emphasizing stocks showing relative strength. A lot of stocks are finding support at their 21-day, 50-day or 10-week lines. It wouldn't take much for those names to look very interesting, though it's still a time to be wary of positive signals. Further, it wouldn't take much for those names to look significantly damaged.
The first few days of a new year often see tax-related selling. That could spur technical damage for the Nasdaq and various leaders that are already under pressure.
The market may offer more clarity next week, as volume picks up as investors return from holiday vacations.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
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