TRUMP WINS
Well, who saw that coming? Apparently, if you now spend 30 seconds reading social media or watching the talking heads on TV, Donald Trump’s comprehensive victory in the US election was so predictable it’s amazing anyone believed otherwise — despite all those same people spending weeks believing the polls and talking about how close the vote was going to be.
We said in yesterday’s Worm we’d soon find out just how accurate all the endless polling was and well, it wasn’t great. At the time of writing Trump has won 292 electoral votes (270 were needed for victory) and has secured around 72 million votes. Kamala Harris, who did not appear on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning after it was clear the results were not going the way Democrats had hoped, sits on 224 electoral votes and around 67 million votes.
In winning the electoral college and being on track to win the popular vote, Trump exceeded perhaps even his best hopes, with the Republicans also winning back the Senate while the fate of the House of Representatives remains unknown. As Trump declared in his victory speech: “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate”.
To recap, rather than the seven key swing states being split between the two candidates and the vote coming down to the smallest of margins, Trump won North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and at the time of writing is ahead in Nevada and Arizona.
The 78-year-old’s victory was confirmed around 5:30am ET when he was projected to win Wisconsin, taking him over the threshold of 270 electoral votes. As The New York Times points out the final vote count won’t be known for days but if Trump does indeed win the popular vote it will be the first time a Republican candidate has done so since George W Bush in 2004. Trump lost the popular vote by around three million votes in 2016 and seven million votes in 2020.
Trump, a convicted felon, will be sworn into office as America’s 47th president on January 20 next year, the BBC flags. As The Washington Post initially put it in its headline, Trump “becomes second president to win nonconsecutive terms, first felon”. CNN and others have tried to work out what the victory means for all his ongoing legal cases. Reuters has said the result will “essentially end the criminal cases brought against him, at least for the four years he occupies the White House”. Trump had been due back in a New York courtroom on November 26 to be sentenced for his conviction for falsifying business records in the state of New York.
The think pieces on the election are unsurprisingly coming thick and fast, with questions asked of why Harris underperformed so starkly, how much of an impact 81-year-old outgoing president Joe Biden staying in the race for so long had on Democrats’ chances, why the polling was so off (remember that Iowa poll putting Harris ahead? Trump won there comprehensively), and some asking why the result was seen as a surprise, citing the recent history of polling and analysts underappreciating Trump’s support.
Most analysts, with some probably trying to delete previous tweets and predictions, agree Trump’s victory was due to his core message on immigration and the economy. The BBC also states that a “significant rightward shift” from Latino voters, who make up about 12% of the electorate, was instrumental. The broadcaster says early data shows Trump took 45% of the Latino vote this election, compared to 53% for Harris. In 2020, Trump won 32% of the vote compared to Biden’s 65%.
Harris has called Trump to concede and will finally make an appearance at her alma mater Howard University in Washington DC and deliver remarks at 4pm ET (8am AEDT). CNN says the outgoing vice president will “implore her supporters across the nation to accept the results of the presidential election”.
REACTIONS FROM AROUND THE WORLD
World leaders have been quick to congratulate Trump on his remarkable comeback victory with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese writing on X: “Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his election victory. Australians and Americans are great friends and true allies. Working together, we can ensure the partnership between our nations and peoples remains strong into the future.” He also said in a statement the US “has long played a leadership role in the stability and security of the Indo-Pacific. Australia will strive to strengthen the cooperation between our two nations in the region.”
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton wrote: “On behalf of the federal Coalition, I congratulate @realDonaldTrump on being elected by the American people as the 47th president of the United States of America and on his return to the White House… May the years ahead be some of the most defining for our alliance in which, driven by tests of our times, the necessity of deterrence, and the cause of securing peace through strength, we unleash the defence, industrial and economic opportunities of AUKUS at speed and scale.”
Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi posted on X he’d “had a great conversation with my friend, president @realDonaldTrump, congratulating him on his spectacular victory.” UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “I look forward to working with you in the years ahead. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”
The Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng posted: “My warm congratulations to Mr. Trump @realDonaldTrump on his reelection as president of the United States! China looks forward to working with the US side for a stable, sound and sustainable China-US relationship.” The BBC added Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning said “The US presidential election is their domestic affairs. We respect the American people’s choice”.
The Guardian recalls how Trump has threatened to impose massive trade tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the US, as well as between 10-20% tariffs on goods from other countries. Another of his claims (it remains anyone’s guess how many of them he will actually implement) is that he will end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours” through a negotiated settlement with Russia, the BBC highlights.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X on Wednesday: “I recall our great meeting with president Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-US strategic partnership, the victory plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine. I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the “peace through strength” approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.” The BBC quotes Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying he was “not aware of the president’s [Vladimir Putin] plans to congratulate Trump on the election” since the US was an “unfriendly country”.
Mexico’s new president Claudia Sheinbaum said Trump’s victory was “no cause for concern” for her country, CNN reports. Just this week Trump said he would impose tariffs on Mexico if it did not stop migrants from crossing the countries’ shared border. He has previously pledged to enact the biggest mass deportation of undocumented migrants in US history.
Also reacting on Wednesday were the markets. Reuters flags Wall Street’s main indexes soared to record highs in anticipation of Trump’s pledged lower taxes and deregulation, despite the threats of tariffs. AFR points out Elon Musk’s Tesla was up 14%.
Finally, former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, whose first phone call with president Trump in 2017 famously did not go great, reckons he has some advice for Albanese. “My advice is you should not do what everyone will tell you to do — which is to suck up to him [Trump],” he told ABC’s David Speers. “If you want good outcomes you’ve got to be able to stand your ground and make your case,” he added. “If you give in to bullies all you get is more bullying.”
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
In a place famous for its monster, Loch Ness has made headlines this week for an altogether more wholesome reason.
The local lifeboat crew have welcomed 11 new labrador puppies after one of the volunteer’s dogs, Roxy, gave birth, the Inverness Courier said.
The puppies have each been named after a class of lifeboat: Mersey, Severn, Tamar, Shannon, Trent, Atlantic, Ruby, Tyne, Watson, Waveney, and Arun.
The local lifeboat’s Facebook page said: “Volunteer helm Kieron has his hands and house very full after his dog Roxy gave birth to 11 puppies and we obviously couldn’t let the chance for a photo op pass us by!”
Seriously, check out the pictures. They will cleanse your timeline.
Say What?
Let me tell you, we have a new star. A star is born: Elon.
Donald Trump
The incoming US president declared at his victory speech that the world’s richest person, billionaire Elon Musk, is a “new star”. Musk donated US$119 million (A$180 million) to fund a Super PAC aimed at reelecting Trump, the BBC reminds us.
CRIKEY RECAP
It’s hard to imagine that an election played out at this pitch could be met with anything other than feverish passions — there was a bit of that energy at the election-eve Harris rally in Pittsburgh the night before. When I ask people what they’ll do if the Republicans win, they don’t just grimace — they bury their faces in their hands, go silent. More than one person says they’d consider leaving the country.
But everyone I’ve talked to also knows at least a few people who aren’t voting, or voting for the other side. Particularly, it has to be said, the Democrats I talk to. The only thing everyone agrees on, though the reasons differ, is that things cannot continue as they are.
Yes, that’s the board of Australia’s central bank effectively blaming tourists and foreign students for propping up consumer demand in Australia, effectively undermining the RBA’s efforts to smash households and thus delaying any interest rate cuts.
Those bloody foreigners, eh?
It’s a shocking, xenophobic statement — and wrong. Who’s really propping up consumer demand? Try the one third of home-owning households without a mortgage — usually baby boomers and gen Xers — who have increased spending more than three times the rate of young people in the face of higher inflation and interest rates.
You can bet the RBA wouldn’t dare have a crack at rich, asset-owning seniors who are untroubled by interest rate rises and actually benefit from higher interest rates. But foreigners are, clearly, fair game — even if their spending helps prop up struggling regional economies, or their labour helps reduce skills shortages and labour market pressures (supposedly one of the reasons the RBA doesn’t want to cut rates yet).
Crikey understands some Labor staffers view it as a way to remind people the Greens is a political party and not an activist group. The phrase is partly used in response to the Greens self-describing as a “movement … [powered] by a network of grassroots supporters”.
Deliberately misnaming your political opponents is an old, tried and true tactic — just look at the US, where Republicans have ridiculed the Democratic Party with the moniker the “Democrat Party” since the nineteenth century, with an increasingly negative connotation since the 1940s.
Tim Moore, a retired associate professor of linguistics formerly at Swinburne University, said the use of the phrase “Greens political party” by the two major parties was a “clear rhetorical strategy”.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Trump win means higher interest rates and weaker Australian economy (AFR)
Labor’s pile-ons undermine PM and Rudd charm offensive (The Australian) ($)
McKenzie apologises, declares 16 free flight upgrades (The Age)
RBA chief faces grilling over go-slow on rate cuts (AAP)
Cooking oil, poo and drugs: Mystery of grime balls on Sydney beaches solved (The Sydney Morning Herald)
THE COMMENTARIAT
America makes a perilous choice — The Editorial Board (The New York Times): American voters have made the choice to return Donald Trump to the White House, setting the nation on a precarious course that no-one can fully foresee.
The founders of this country recognised the possibility that voters might someday elect an authoritarian leader and wrote safeguards into the Constitution, including powers granted to two other branches of government designed to be a check on a president who would bend and break laws to serve his own ends. And they enacted a set of rights — most crucially the First Amendment — for citizens to assemble, speak and protest against the words and actions of their leader.
Over the next four years, Americans must be clear-eyed about the threat to the nation and its laws that will come from its 47th president and be prepared to exercise their rights in defence of the country and the people, laws, institutions and values that have kept it strong.
Trump triumphed. But will his presidency be as dark as his campaign? — Dan Balz (The Washington Post): Roughly half of the population had hoped this election would result in a Harris victory, eager to begin to put Trump and Trumpism in the rearview mirror, believing that a Republican Party remade by Trump and under his thumb would begin to look to a different future. There was never a likelihood that the Republicans would become again the party of Reagan or the Bushes, but had Trump been defeated for the second election in a row, there would be breathing room for those in the GOP to think anew. That’s now gone.
Trump can serve only four years and then he will be done, but in that time, if he is focused and disciplined and unrestrained, he can carry out many of the darker promises he made throughout the campaign — the deportations, the vengeance against his adversaries, the “America First” foreign policy priorities that could undermine America’s role as the leader of the free world. He will command centre stage, pointing the direction ahead for his party and even trying to pick his successor to lead the GOP into the 2028 election.
No one imagined nine years ago that he would have had this much staying power or this much impact on his party or the country. America’s future is once again in his hands.
