Donald Trump’s meme stock suffered its worst day ever, blowing a sizable hole in the Republican nominee’s personal fortune.
Shares in Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, shed nearly a quarter of its market cap in Wednesday trading—its most for a single session on record. The plunge, which follows concerns Puerto Rican voters may cost Trump the key swing state of Pennsylvania, comes on the heels of an otherwise scorching October rally during which TMTG shares nearly tripled.
According to Forbes, which tracks the net worth of billionaires in real time, Trump took a $1.3 billion hit on the day, since he owns around 57% of the company’s outstanding stock. This could prove expensive as he faces legal costs from numerous criminal court cases, including a racketeering charge in Georgia for conspiring to interfere in the 2020 election.
Given TMTG’s total annual revenue in the low-single-digit millions—roughly on par with the business done by a handful of Starbucks stores—the current $8 billion market cap only makes sense in a scenario in which Trump returns to the White House in January following Tuesday's vote.
Polymarket odds potentially gamed
That appeared to be likely following October’s sudden and abrupt swing in the odds in favor of Trump first predicted by betting markets. One of them, the offshore, unregulated blockchain-based Polymarket, has been touted repeatedly by Trump megadonor Elon Musk as “more accurate than polls,” since it involves wagers made by people with real skin in the game.
On Wednesday, however, an exclusive report from Fortune found evidence that Trump’s high odds—cited widely as evidence of an impending victory—could have been artificially manipulated through a blockchain stealth scam known as wash trading.
Just one day earlier, renowned short seller Jim Chanos cited concerns that betting markets like Polymarket could be legally “gamed” at minimal cost to a speculator. This risked impacting trillions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasury bonds priced at least partly off expectations a Trump victory could reignite inflation.
Unfortunately for TMTG shareholders, the Trump campaign may have suffered an unforced error in the final days of the race when a comedian called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” during a Sunday rally at New York City’s Madison Square Garden.
Pennsylvania's Puerto Rican voters
While it was only one of a litany of offensive remarks by various speakers on stage, the Trump campaign felt it necessary to disavow this specific one.
“I have no idea who he is, never saw him, never heard of him—and don’t want to hear of him,” Trump hastily told Fox News. “I don’t even know who put him in. And I can’t imagine it’s a big deal: I’ve done more for Puerto Rico than any president.”
The reason for Trump’s defense of his record is that Americans of Puerto Rican descent make up nearly half a million people in Pennsylvania, the nation’s most hotly contested battleground.
Biden won the state in 2020 by fewer than 82,000 votes, reversing Trump’s even slimmer margin of victory four years before. That means Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes could again be determined by fewer than 100,000 votes, giving the Puerto Rican community’s voice great impact days before the election.
Shares in TMTG are expected to rebound at the start of Thursday’s trading session.
