Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, many European observers have been in a state of wilful denial. They have been hopeful that Trump 2.0 would be largely the same as his first administration where the rhetoric was worse than the reality.
Their approach has been based on the assumption that a mixture of calculated deference, avoidance of a full-on trade war and increased commitments to Nato defence spending would keep Washington engaged in the defence of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. And, crucially, it would preserve the American nuclear umbrella that has protected Europe since the end of the second world war.
But the US national security strategy for 2025, published on December 4, has blown those assumptions out of the water and forced America’s allies, particularly those in Europe, to confront a harsh new reality. Not only can they not count on the United States to be in their corner when the chips are down. They will have to allow for US indifference – even outright hostility – for the foreseeable future.
