The U.S. southern border has had a prominent role in the campaign leading up to the presidential elections, as former President Donald Trump has made of immigration enforcement a top issue, banking on promises of mass deportations of unlawful immigrants to garner support.
Such initiatives have gained backing with the electorate, with a recent survey by Scripps News/Ipsos revealing that Trump's perceived winning issue is immigration, and one from Ipsos and Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship showing that 66% of Americans favor deporting people who entered the country illegally.
The issue is dominating the national conversation, but it hasn't materially changed all races in the five states bordering with Mexico. Trump's chances of sweeping the states are slim to none, considering he's trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by large margins in California and New Mexico. The scenario is different in Florida and Texas, where he holds solid leads, while Arizona is currently a statistical tie.
The Democratic nominee has consistently held a high-single-digit lead over Trump in New Mexico, with the current aggregate from FiveThirtyEight showing a 7.3 percentage point gap for Harris.
The distance more than three times higher in California, a historic Democratic stronghold where Harris holds close to 60% of the support in the state. Trump, in turn, has just over 35%, a chasm to Harris' 58.9%.
Looking at the states where Trump is ahead, he doesn't hold leads such as Harris' one in California, but the gap is still larger than the margin of error, providing him a comfortable lead to consider the electoral votes will go to the GOP's camp.
The Republican has a 6-point lead in Florida, getting 50.8% of the support to Harris' 44.8%. Additional positive news for Trump is that the gap has been increasing over the past weeks, considering it was a 3.6 percentage one on September 19.
Trump's advantage is larger in Texas: 6.7 points. It has also expanded during the last part of the campaign, having reached 4.6 percentage points in early September.
Arizona features the only close race in the southern border, currently standing at 48.6% for Trump and 46.7% for Harris. The momentum is on the side of the Republican, considering the vice president was actually ahead in the race in late August. Despite being within the margin of error, NPR considers the race is a likely Republican one and that its 11 electoral votes will go Trump's way.
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