We’re always looking for what’s next. Everybody either wants to be the next thing or they want to be in the know of what’s coming next.
Most of us grew up with that. Everyone wanted to be “like Mike.” But since most of us could never actually be Michael Jordan, everyone wanted to know who the next one was that possibly could.
We found him, folks. It was LeBron James. The dude has had every single expectation laid in his lap since he was 16 years old and, not only has he met them, he’s surpassed most of them in just about every single way.
He did it again in one very major way on Tuesday night. James broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s decades-long scoring record that everyone previously thought would remain untouched.
Nope. Bron touched it. He’s the leader now.
It’s another feather in his cap that has easily become one of the most decorated in NBA history. And this feather won’t be removed easily, nor will it happen anytime soon.
There are so many reasons why this just won’t happen again. Think about it.
The first issue is health. It took Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 20 seasons to get to 38,387 points. It took LeBron another 20 seasons along with 2,237 3-pointers to just catch up to Kareem here. Longevity is a prerequisite for this. Just look at all the names LeBron has passed.
LeBron James needs 36 points tonight to become the all-time leading scorer in NBA history. Here’s a complete list of all the players he will have passed along the way. pic.twitter.com/fmFr4bdQPd
— Todd Whitehead (@CrumpledJumper) February 7, 2023
There’s a lot of good injury luck that goes into playing that long and most players don’t have it. The players who are coming won’t get it. There’s a reason only 10 players in league history have played at least 20 seasons.
And even once you have that longevity, there’s still the scoring clip that you’ve got to worry about.
From that group, only James, Abdul-Jabbar and Dirk Nowitzki have eclipsed the 30,000-point mark. That’s a requirement for the next player who has a shot here.
Here’s a quick look at James’ journey to being the point total leader, via a graphic from Sportico. Just take a look at how good you have to perform per minute to get here.
.@KingJames is on the precipice of breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record of 38,387 for the most points in NBA history.
Let's compare the numbers pic.twitter.com/KA9LQ5RTXR
— Sportico (@Sportico) February 7, 2023
Most players won’t get to be that good. It’s just simple math.
A player has to keep a consistent scoring pace of around 2,000 points per season or more over a 20-year span to get to LeBron’s 38,390. That’s around 25 points per game over an 82-game span, but no one plays 82 games anymore. So you’re getting up to 27 and 28 points per game through an entire career.
We very rarely see that. Only 13 players in league history have averaged at least 25 points per game throughout their careers. And, of those players, only six have more than 1,000 games logged.
Then, there’s also this fact: LeBron James is still going. The dude broke Kareem’s record, but he didn’t retire. He still seems to think he has a few good years left in him so long as his “mind is in it.”
"It hasn't quite sunk in just yet…I know I can play a couple more years." pic.twitter.com/HJPoEtUVu8
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) February 8, 2023
Let’s say he plays another two seasons and scores around 1,500 points per year, which is just 25 points per game over a 60-game stretch, that could push the record close to 42,000. That’s a lot of points, man.
Look, I’ve made it a habit to never say never. Look at where we are. No one thought LeBron would be here, either.
The NBA could add a 4-point line someday. Or there could be another phenom around the corner that just does everything I literally just said couldn’t be done while also hitting 4,000 3-pointers in their career. We’ll see.
Just don’t hold your breath while looking for who could possibly be next. You’re not going to find them.
