Determining which players will over- and underperform their fantasy football draft station is annually one of the most important elements in putting together a winning roster. As the season inches closer it’s a good time to see where players are being drafted, and how their ADP (Average Draft Position) corresponds to what they might do in 2023.
With that in mind, here are five players that appear likely to underdeliver relative to their current draft slot.
5
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s been an eventful offseason for Mixon, who reworked his contract to return to the Bengals, and the team didn’t make any overtly impactful moves at the position, drafting Chase Brown in the fifth round, so the veteran remains the lead back. He was charged with aggravated menacing for allegedly pointing a gun at another person stemming from a January incident. The charges were dismissed for a while, but they were eventually reinstated. Mixon was found not guilty on Aug. 17. While improbable, league action remains a slim possibility as we’ve seen the NFL punish players in the past despite them not even facing legal action.
Even with that, there are still some disturbing trends for the 27-year-old. He missed three games last season, bringing his total to 15 over the last three years, well above the four he missed during his first three. His production was down as well, rushing for just 814 yards on 210 carries, though he did set career bests as a receiver (60-441-2). Keep in mind, however, that was with Ja’Marr Chase missing time and Tee Higgins at less than 100 percent. While Mixon is in line for a major role in Cincy’s offense, his mileage and declining output make him a reach in the borderline RB1/RB2 range where he’s being drafted.
4
RB Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
Walker put together a nice rookie season, compiling 1,215 total yards and nine TDs. He shouldered a heavy workload for big chunks of 2022 after would-be complement RB Rashaad Penny (now with the Philadelphia Eagles) was lost in Week 5. Walker posted five 100-yard games over his final 10, and he played down the stretch through his own physical issues, showing toughness to help Seattle squeak into the playoffs as the NFC’s seventh seed.
Despite the former Spartan’s efforts, the Seahawks spent a second-round pick on RB Zach Charbonnet, reinforcing the idea that Seattle wants to use a committee approach in their backfield — they planned to do it in 2022 as well, but Penny was hurt. The selection of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is another negative for Walker’s outlook, as he joins WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, giving the team one of the NFL’s better receiving corps. With one football and many mouths to feed, it’s hard to count on Walker to provide better than RB3 output.
3
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
A prolific pass catcher in seven seasons with the Houston Texans, Hopkins scuffled during his three-year stint with the Arizona Cardinals. After posting a 115-1,407-6 line in 2020, D-Hop dealt with hamstring and knee injuries the following year before 2022 was bookended by a six-game suspension and another knee injury. All told, the veteran managed 106 receptions, 1,289 yards, and 11 TDs combined over his last two campaigns in Arizona.
Health isn’t the only concern for 31-year-old, either, as his decision to sign with the Titans did no favors for his 2023 outlook. The Titans are a notoriously run-first bunch behind RB Derrick Henry with only the Chicago Bears (377) and Atlanta Falcons (415) attempting fewer passes than Tennessee (456). While new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly is expected to open up the passing game some, this team remains rooted in a grinder mentality. They also have what they hope is an ascending talent in WR Treylon Burks (knee), who suffered a knee injury in camp but could return by Week 1. More than one veteran wideout has seen their careers flame out in Music City, so relying on Hopkins as more than a WR3 is dangerous.
2
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
While we already mentioned Smith-Njigba as part of the reason that Walker is overvalued, the rookie also finds his way onto the list as he continues to be drafted as a top-40 receiver. His inclusion here isn’t a matter of talent — the Ohio State product outperformed 2022 first-round picks WRs Garrett Wilson (New York Jets) and Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) when the three of them played together in 2021 — or durability, even though he missed most of last year with a hamstring injury. Instead, it’s about whether he’ll see enough opportunities.
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With the established tandem of Metcalf and Lockett in place and having spent a full season working with QB Geno Smith, JSN is unlikely to surpass either player in Year 1. Last year, WR Marquise Goodwin (now with the Cleveland Browns) was the No. 3 receiver, and he finished with just 27 grabs on 42 targets. You’d clearly expect more from someone with Smith-Njigba’s pedigree, but this passing game has flowed through its top two receivers since Metcalf was drafted in 2019. Plus, don’t forget head coach Pete Carroll has always liked to feature the run. JSN is a sensible target as your WR5 with upside, just don’t draft him as a starter.
1
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Question: How many rookie tight ends in the last 62 years have topped 800 yards receiving? The answer is five, and just two of them (former New York Giants TE Jeremy Shockey in 2002 and Falcons TE Kyle Pitts in 2021) have come this century. As with JSN, this isn’t about talent. Kincaid was the first tight end selected by accident in a draft lauded for its quality and quantity at the position. He has speed to threaten downfield and the versatility to line up in multiple spots.
He’s set to share time with TE Dawson Knox, however, and will likely be eased into the offense with a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. If your league is large enough to warrant carrying a high-upside TE2, give Kincaid a shot should you be feeling optimistic. If you’re only going to have one tight end on your roster, though, going with the rookie is a dubious choice.
