The dollar index (DXY00) tumbled to a 2.5-month low today and is down by -0.46%. Optimism that a peace deal between the US and Iran is near is weighing on safe-haven demand for the dollar today. Also, today's -6% plunge in crude oil prices eases inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to pursue a dovish, dollar-negative monetary policy. The dollar extended its losses today after the US Apr ADP employment change came in below expectations, a dovish factor for Fed policy. In addition, today's rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high has dampened liquidity demand for the dollar.
The dollar retreated today after Axios reported that the US believes it's close to an agreement with Iran to end the nearly 10-week war. The US sees Iran responding within 48 hours to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, which would include both sides lifting restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz.
