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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Business
Patrick Commins Economics editor

‘Dodged a bullet’: inflation eases to 3.8%, reducing chances of interest rate rise for Australia’s mortgage holders

Pedestrians outside the ASX in Sydney, NSW, Australia
Inflation dropped to 3.8% in the year to June 2026, from 4% in the previous month. Photograph: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

Australian mortgage-holders have “dodged a bullet’, with the Reserve Bank now less likely to hike rates next month after new data showed inflation unexpectedly eased to 3.8%, in the year to June, from 4%.

The hotly anticipated consumer price report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics had been seen by some economists as a “make-or-break” moment ahead of the RBA’s interest rate decision on 11 August.

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