Speak to a Boris Johnson loyalist, and the date of his likely return to No 10 has a habit of slipping. Initially, his supporters talked up this month’s local elections as a moment of peril for Rishi Sunak, that could lead to a Johnson restoration by the autumn. Then it moved to next year’s local elections.
Others now say the moment will come after the next general election. In the face of a Tory loss, Johnson could re-emerge as MPs conclude that ousting him was the moment it all went wrong. As ever with such wargaming, Johnson is keeping his distance, leaving it to his supporters to dream big.
But the events of this week have left some in the party wondering if it will ever happen. In the Tory party, there is a rule never to write Johnson off – he has come back from many setbacks in the past. Yet the news that the Cabinet Office has referred Johnson to the police over possible Covid breaches regarding visits by family and friends to Chequers and Downing Street – documented in his own diary – has served to remind his party of the events that led to his demise. It’s also highlighted the limited support he now has in parliament.
When Johnson considered a comeback in the autumn after Liz Truss imploded, one of the key blockers to gaining wider support from MPs was the privileges committee investigation hanging over him. If Johnson were to be found guilty of misleading parliament and face a suspension of 10 or more sitting days, he would be vulnerable to a byelection. Why bet on a leader who could lose his seat months later?
The result of that Partygate investigation by the privileges committee is expected next month – and was meant to be when the former prime minister could draw a line under the whole saga for better or worse. Now Johnson risks yet another investigation if the police decide to pursue one. Even if it goes no further, the events point to how painful the coming Covid inquiry is likely to be for both Johnson and the Tory party more widely. “A lot of us reluctantly decided he had to go [in 2022] so the story would stop,” says one MP who backed Johnson for leader in 2019. “He’s gone, but it’s still going”.
There was certainly a lot of noise from Johnson’s supporters when the latest story broke this week. While he is said to be considering legal action against the government, his supporters began to anonymously threaten to “obstruct” Sunak’s premiership unless he stepped in to bring an end to the “witch-hunt” (ministers deny any involvement). There are threats to force byelections in the near future. One former minister predicted a confidence vote on Sunak could follow as “54 letters [are] not hard between now and November”.
This led to a pile-on over Tory WhatsApp channels as Jackie Doyle-Price – who backed Liz Truss in the summer leadership contest – posed the question of the day: “FFS: who on earth is spouting this bonkersness? Are you determined to turn our party into a skip fire?” Only one MP – Andrea Jenkyns – attempted to mount a partial defence.
But there has been little in the way of complaints to the whips on the issue. The mood in the mainstream of the party is that the story is an inconvenience, yet not one that raises questions of leadership. “He has some very loud supporters but they’re starting to look a bit cranky,” says one senior Tory. “They don’t reflect the mood in the party”.
Most want to move on in the hope of avoiding a catastrophic electoral defeat next year. When it comes to the dismal local election results, the chaos surrounding the final days of Johnson’s premiership and Truss’s time in No 10 regularly came up on the doorstep as reasons not to vote Tory.
What the Johnson story has done, however, is reignite concerns in the party that for some MPs, the appetite for a grudge match is larger than the appetite to win. After years of infighting and the poison that follows from ousting not one but two leaders, can the party really unite? “Yes, Tory MPs are addicted to psychodrama,” messaged one exasperated Tory MP when we posed the question this week on an episode of the Spectator Coffee House Shots podcast. A minister went further. “Look at Labour, they still have Corbynite MPs but you don’t hear much from them. They want to win. The question is whether we do.”
It’s why some MPs believe Downing Street should either discipline the more rowdy MPs or make an effort to hug them close. “At the moment they are just acting like independents,” says one former minister. While there is little evidence that these MPs have the power to crash Sunak’s plans – the Windsor framework rebellion was contained and the row over retained EU law has calmed – they are able to make enough noise to fill the news agenda.
Johnson’s resignation honours list is a perfect example of the problem he poses. The list – already being subjected to claims of cronyism – will only worsen the former PM’s standing with the parliamentary party. It will also bring negative headlines that risk damaging the Tory party. Johnson’s ongoing problems make his return less likely – but they also make Sunak’s task of turning things round ahead of the next election even harder.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political editor
