In my early October quarterly report on the grain and oilseed futures markets, I concluded:
Commodity prices are cyclical. They rise to levels where production increases, inventories grow, and consumer demand declines. They fall to levels where production declines, inventories contract, and consumer demand increases. As the markets head towards 2025 and a new crop year. As the markets finish the 2024 harvest and head for the 2025 crop year, the cure for the current low price levels could be those low prices. I believe grain and oilseed market prices have limited downside and significant upside potential. Worldwide demand continues to grow, with the over eight billion global population. The uncertainty of the weather conditions in the critical growing regions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could cause prices to recover, perhaps dramatically, in the future. I favor long risk positions at the current price levels, leaving room to add on further declines.
