WASHINGTON _ The excitement in some U.S. and foreign diplomatic circles about the rise of Juan Guaido and an expectation for the fall of Nicolas Maduro has been replaced by frustration over the Venezuelan leader's staying power and concerns about Russian and Chinese meddling, according to multiple diplomatic sources.
Maduro's hold on Venezuela has led diplomats, foreign leaders and some Washington officials to consider that, barring military action, Maduro may be able to follow in the footsteps of other authoritarian leaders who have stayed in power despite crushing sanctions.
"Maduro has definitely shown he is more resilient than what people thought. That's a fact," said a diplomat from Latin America who was unauthorized to speak publicly about the regional strategy. "If you think about what the administration said about 'this is the end, this is the end,' and yet Maduro is still there."
Foreign diplomats in Washington say they got caught up in expectations raised by some in the Trump administration that Guaido would take over the government, and so are disappointed that Maduro's regime has not yet fallen. Confidence that Maduro's fall was guaranteed has now turned more to hope that he will _ and concern he may not.
"There was this euphoric reaction that we all felt that it was the end of Maduro," said Fernando Carrera, Guatemala's foreign minister in 2013 and 2014. "I felt it. I was part of that group. I thought Maduro is gone. But, no, Guaido couldn't make it happen. The Trump administration couldn't make it happen. And the Chinese and Russians have raised the stakes too high."
Trump's special envoy for Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, said: "We do not have the ability to predict exactly when regimes like this will fall, but we do have the ability to analyze, and we are confident Maduro's regime will eventually come to an end. The endgame for him should be to leave Venezuela, and the sooner the better, because his own situation is only going to decline the longer he clings to power and the more misery will be in the country."
Diplomats from the region say economic pressure, mainly U.S. sanctions, may not be enough to dislodge Maduro if the Venezuelan people don't rise up.
Maduro has been able to keep territorial control of the South American nation despite recognition by more than 50 nations, including the United States, of Guaido as interim president, crippling oil sanctions and paralyzing banking restrictions.
The Venezuelan generals the United States sees as essential to controlling the populace have stuck by Maduro despite veiled U.S. threats of military action.
The sanctions must be given time to have an effect, some argue. Venezuela's oil sector accounts for as much as 70 percent of the Maduro government's income.
Another diplomat noted that the banking sanctions _ imposed in retaliation for the arrest of Guaido's chief of staff _ could also have an almost equally devastating impact on Maduro's ability to keep his base.
"It will be hard for Maduro to pay his public servants," said another diplomat from the region, who was unauthorized to speak publicly about the pressure campaign against Maduro. "That will hurt a lot."
A senior administration official said the United States and regional allies remain committed to seeing Maduro leave and democracy restored.
"The momentum remains firmly on the side of Interim President Juan Guaido and the National Assembly," the official said on the condition of anonymity. "The overwhelming support by the people of Venezuela and within the region for a peaceful democratic transition in Venezuela has only grown stronger."
The Trump administration continues to increase the pressure. In addition to last week's banking sanctions, President Donald Trump met Guaido's wife, Fabian Rosales, in the Oval Office where she spoke of children dying from lack of food and medicine and fears for the her husband's life.
"This is a fight of life and death," Rosales told Trump. "We know what will triumph in the end is life. I know that you will be part of this process."
The Trump administration appears engaged at all levels, including at the White House, State Department, USAID and Treasury Department. National security adviser John Bolton posts on Twitter regularly about Venezuela.
"What is happening in Venezuela is a man-made crisis due to the actions of Maduro � and his band of thieves. The United States and responsible international partners stand ready to help the Venezuelan people rebuild and prosper," Bolton wrote Friday.
Trump announced at a recent meeting with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro that the United States hadn't imposed its toughest sanctions yet. A few days later, the administration announced banking sanctions that Bolton argued would essentially cut the Maduro government off from the international financial sector.
"We are shutting down Maduro's access to his illicit wealth and working to ensure his cronies can no longer steal assets from the Venezuelan people, Abrams said. "But many of these actions come with a 90, or even a 180-day grace period, so the full force of these actions has yet to actually be felt."
On Wednesday, during his meeting with Rosales, Trump appeared to acknowledge the limitations, barring military actions, when asked how the United States could increase pressure after the latest banking sanctions.
"They have no money," he said. "They have no oil. They have no nothing. They have plenty of pressure right now. So we'll see. They have no electricity. And other than military, you can't get any more pressure than they have."
If economic sanctions are not enough and the military option is off the table, diplomats worry that the mass flight of people from Venezuela diminishes potential for a large popular uprising. Many of those who remain are struggling to survive.
A majority of Venezuelans now live in poverty. More than 3 million Venezuelans have fled their homes in search of food, medicine and work. The country's gross domestic product has shrunk to about half in the past five years. Inflation reached 1 million percent last year.
History shows that sanctions alone are not necessarily the most effective way to force regime change, said Robert S. Litwak, a former director for nonproliferation for the National Security Council, who is now a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
"If one looks at the record, one can't find a case were economic sanctions on their own produced a change of regime," Litwak said. "Look, Cuba has been sanctioned for 60 years. We've had the most rigorous sanctions. People are driving cars from the 1950s and they've circumvented sanctions. But it hasn't collapsed the regime."
Litwak said the United States heavily sanctioned Iraq, Libya, North Korea and Iran was unable to achieve the goal of regime change.
Those realities have sunk in as Maduro has remained standing after absorbing four devastating blows: Guaido recognized by the United States as interim president, oil sanctions, Guaido's promise that hundreds of tons of aid stuck on the border would be delivered and strangling banking restrictions.
"I talked recently, a week or so ago, to four or five Latin American advisers, and they're all very pessimistic," said Michael Shifter, who as president of the Inter-American Dialogue has deep ties with many leaders across Latin America. "It got me depressed. And I'm not exactly Mr. Optimism."
