Injuries and suspensions have ensured that Liverpool’s new front line has not yet had too much opportunity to gel as a unit. Diogo Jota was injured for the first six matches of the campaign, Luis Diaz now faces up to eight weeks on the side-lines, while Darwin Nunez missed three matches following his utterly unnecessary red card against Crystal Palace.
There has also been a change in formation in the last week, which has seen four of the Reds’ five senior forwards starting together at the front of a 4-2-3-1 system. Against Arsenal, while the result was obviously disappointing, the attacking quartet showed glimpses of what it is capable, with four men each picking up a goal or assist.
One of the latter was delivered by Jota. Early in the second half, he played a through ball to Roberto Firmino, enabling him to score the Reds’ second equaliser. Liverpool’s Portuguese forward may not be their most frequent goal-assister but he certainly has a knack of delivering them in big matches.
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In a little over two years with Liverpool, Jota has assisted nine goals. Although that doesn’t sound like that many, his rate of one every 624 minutes isn’t that far behind Sadio Mane’s average (584) with the club. It would seem around 600 minutes per assist is par for a forward more concerned with converting chances than creating them for others.
More interesting are the identity of the teams whom the Reds’ number 20 has set up goals against. His effort against Arsenal followed assists both home and away against Manchester United last season. Jota has also created goals in matches against Ajax, Benfica and RB Leipzig, meaning two thirds of his total have been in the Champions League or against other members of the Premier League’s established big six clubs. In his time with Liverpool, only three players with any team have made more goal contributions in matches among the latter sextet.
Jota could easily have had more assists. For a metric which is taken so seriously by many, it is heavily reliant upon luck. It is the finishing by the player taking the shot which determines if a chance created becomes an assist or not. For instance, the former Wolves man set up 10 clear-cut chances last season, with four of them being scored.
While this is in line with the average conversion rate for such opportunities of around 39 per cent, Jordan Henderson picked up five assists from only seven clear-cut chances created. The skipper finished the campaign with the same total of assists as Jota yet by this measure was fortunate to do so.
This issue is reflected in the 25-year-old’s expected assist numbers too. Per Understat, Jota’s five Premier League assists for Liverpool have come from chances collectively valued at 7.9 xA. With even average finishing from his colleagues, he could have set up three more goals.
Of course, it’s not realistic to assume any kind of regression to the mean lies in wait. A teammate missing a chance two years ago has no impact upon the likelihood of the next one Jota creates finding the net. But he has shown an ability to play through balls – only Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah created more chances for the club that way in 2021/22 – suggesting he suits the ‘number 10’ role in the new look 4-2-3-1 formation.
For now, that may need to be put on hold. With Diaz injured, Jota looks the player most likely to move to the left of the attack. With 43 goals and 24 assists from 144 career appearances in the position ( per Transfermarkt ) he should be able to contribute from there too.
With a Champions League away game and a clash with Manchester City to negotiate this week, Jota’s creativity, which often shines brightest in the biggest games, could prove priceless to Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp needs to ensure the Reds make the most of it.
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