These Western Conference Finals are brought to you by the number five.
Five, as in five-out basketball.
Five, as the Fantastic Five. (Yes, I finally came up with a decent nickname for that lineup that helped the Warriors win in the first round.)
Five, as in the number of games it will take Golden State to dispatch the Dallas Mavericks and advance to the NBA Finals for the… sixth time under head coach Steve Kerr. (We almost had it there.)
Now, Dallas is no pushover — they have the best scorer remaining in the postseason and they play a tenacious brand of defense, as demanded and orchestrated by their head coach and Bay Area basketball legend Jason Kidd.
But the matchup between Dallas and Golden State is favorable to the latter. What the Mavericks do well — what the Phoenix Suns couldn’t stop in the final two games teams’ semifinal matchup — can be mitigated by the Warriors’ style of play on both sides of the ball.
Don’t believe me? Well, let me show you my work. Here are five reasons why the Warriors will win this series:
Familiarity
Luka Dončić is incredible. He’s an elite scorer of the basketball — someone who can get to any spot on the floor and knock down a shot. When you have him on your team, you always have a chance.
But let’s cut through the compliments and get down to brass tacks: Dončić is just impersonating James Harden.
Dallas has assisted on 50 percent of their field goals in this postseason. That’s a level of hero ball that would even make Harden blush.
This isn’t to say that this style of basketball is bad… Actually, I take that back — I find this style of play to be abhorrent.
But this style is unquestionably familiar to Golden State.
The Warriors are a different squad than the one that last competed for an NBA title. Was Jonathan Kuminga even born in 2019? But while there is some youth on the roster, the Warriors’ core four — Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and yes, Kevon Looney — all remember those slug-it-out series with the Rockets with vivid detail.
Perhaps more importantly, the Warriors’ coaching staff — Steve Kerr, Mike Brown, and Chris DeMarco — remember, too.
I’d expect them to dust off the old files and implement a defensive game plan similar to what we saw during the height of the Warriors’ dynasty.
Remember, it worked every time back then. And while this Mavericks team might have a bit more to it than those Rockets teams, there’s nothing that Dallas can toss at the Warriors that they haven’t seen before.
Predictability
This series will be held up as a testament to the league’s modern pace-and-space movement. Both teams want to play small and shoot a lot of 3-pointers.
But pace? That’s not the Mavericks’ bag.
Dallas is one of the slowest teams in the NBA and has shifted down even further in the playoffs, averaging 92.5 possessions per game.
That’s the speed of the game 15 years ago. And it’s an advantage for the Warriors.
The Mavericks are methodical and direct. If Dončić isn’t driving and either kicking or scoring, it’s someone else doing the same thing on the other side of the court.
It’s straightforward basketball — it’s worked this far and won’t embarrass them in this series. But this is not a style that will make up for early deficits. There aren’t a lot of wrinkles that can be tossed on top of it, either.
As we saw in Dallas’ Game 7 win over Phoenix, once a team figures something out in the playoffs, things can get out of control.
So expect the Warriors to go one-on-one with Dončić. They’ll want to do it with their top perimeter defender, Andrew Wiggins, but because Dončić lacks an explosive first step, the Warriors can also throw size at the Slovenian supernova. Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Otto Porter, and even Klay Thompson will get their turn on Dončić and I don’t think that puts the Warriors in a disadvantageous situation. If they want to double, they can, but staying home and letting Luka try to cook worked in the past and I think it will work in this series, too.
He can have 40 a night. But if he doesn’t also create, the Mavericks stand no chance.
This season, Doncic averaged 31.5 points per game against the Warriors this season, on efficient shooting, but he was a negative-rated player because he averaged more turnovers than assists in those four games.
Perhaps Dončić is so good that the Warriors will never push Dallas out of their comfort zone — they’ll be able to execute with impunity on the offensive end.
But if the Dubs can start games strong (a big ask, given the way this team has played so far this postseason) or put Dončić in uncomfortable situations, I don’t think Dallas has a second kind of smoke to throw.
Reliability
The Warriors have been volatile this postseason. Both Denver and Memphis (in both of their iterations) were tricky matchups for the Dubs and made Golden State overreliant on the 3-point shot falling.
Dallas is going to get a game in this series because the Warriors won’t be able to put the ball in the basket, even if they get open looks.
But Dallas isn’t a consistent performer, either.
So much of the Mavericks’ success this postseason has come from the play of Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie. Both are marvelous players who give Dallas one marked advantage in this series — second-unit superiority. Both point guards have also been used opposite Dončić as secondary creators of a similar (albeit inferior) ilk. Both players will have big games in this series.
But Dallas needs at least one of them to be at the top of their game, alongside Dončić, every night to win. I just don’t see them as those kinds of players.
And while you can make the same argument for Thompson and Poole opposite Curry, the Warriors’ operation isn’t so dependent on individuals to create everything on the offensive end. Hate the Warriors system all you want, but it’ll be a benefit in this series.
Size
The Warriors have struggled with size this postseason.
That will not be an issue in this series. Dallas has the worst rebound percentage in the postseason and the second-worst offensive rebound percentage to the Bulls, who were woeful in their five playoff games.
The Warriors can turn the ball over at their prodigious rate if the Mavericks aren’t beating them on the boards. Dallas won’t do much to stop the Warriors from scoring at the hoop should Golden State get past the Mavericks’ excellent perimeter defense — something the Warriors’ motion offense should be able to do.
Going Green
On the defensive side, he will be lurking behind whoever is guarding Dončić, ready to force the action.
On the offensive side, if Dallas wants to trap, Green will be the primary release valve for Steph Curry. It’ll be like 2015 all over again.
After a series where Green did not look like himself, this series sets up to bring out the absolute best in Green — if it’s still there.
I’m making a bet right now. With a trip to the Finals on the line — the Green we saw during the Warriors’ dynastic run will be on full display. He’s not one to elude legacy-defining moments.
In all, I think the Warriors are a flawed team, but one that is equipped to beat a Dallas squad that is quality but will run up on the Peter principle in this series.
The Warriors will take the first two games at home, split on the road (losing Game 3), and win Game 5 at Chase Center to advance.
