Israel’s war on Gaza is a consequence multiplier. Every day brings horrific new after-effects—both regional and geopolitical—that have to be added to an ever-ramifying, ultimately unknown, outcome. Few experts can speak to the complexity of what is happening and may yet happen. Jon Allen is one of them. Canada’s ambassador to Israel from 2006 to 2010, he is currently a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto and a distinguished fellow of the Canada International Council. In one role or another—as a diplomat, intellectual, and policy maker—he has been studying, researching, and thinking about the Middle East for much of his adult life. We recently spoke by email about the more strategic aspects of Israel’s military operation and where he believes events might end up.
Vowing to destroy Hamas following its October 7 massacre, Israel has laid waste to much of the Gaza Strip. The damage staggers: an estimated tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed in bombing raids reportedly more intense than what we’ve seen in Ukraine, Syria, or even World War II. Yet Hamas still stands. In some ways, critics argue, Israeli operations have strengthened Hamas’s hand by reconfirming its legitimacy, among some, as a check on Israel. Did the Israel Defense Forces underestimate Hamas?
