By-election season is narrative season. From time to time, a seat will become vacant between general elections—members resign or die—and an election is required within six months to fill it. In a legislature with 338 seats and a country with a voracious pundit class and deep roster of political operatives, the occasional ad hoc electoral contest becomes a chessboard on which players battle over the future of the nation. It all sounds grand and very important, but typically, the races themselves mean little for law, policy, or the next general election. They do, however, shape perceptions and drive the way we think and talk about parties and their leaders. They give parties a chance to trial and experiment with electoral strategies. Of course, they also return members of Parliament to constituents, but that fact tends to get lost in the melee.
On June 19, by-elections were held to fill four House of Commons seats. Perhaps above all, the races were framed as the first electoral test for Pierre Poilievre. As the new leader of the Conservative Party, elected in September 2022, Poilievre was in the spotlight. From the beginning, he was, by design, a polarizing figure. He ran for the leadership the same way he’s run the Conservative Party since becoming leader—in the style of a right-wing YouTuber, elbows up, keen to smash norms and bite like a rabid bulldog. He has balanced working-class outreach—by way of talking about inflation, affordability, and housing policy—with social and cultural sorties on drug policy and the so-called “woke” agenda.
