There's a great deal to like about geothermal energy producer Fervo Energy (FRVO), including its large “potential backlog,” the fact that major tech and other energy companies have made deals with the firm, and its innovative technology. Most recently on the latter front, the firm disclosed significant improvement in its drilling rates.
Still, given the company's enormous valuation, a meaningful logistical hurdle that it's reportedly facing, and the weakness of FRVO stock in recent weeks, the shares appear to be too risky to hold at this point. Also worth considering, as I've pointed out in a number of articles, is the fact that the Street often is very bullish on new technologies in their early days and then subsequently sours a great deal on them. In fact, Fervo may already be undergoing this process.
About Fervo Energy
The firm has developed “enhanced geothermal systems” and seeks to deliver “utility-scale power.” In 2025, it generated just $138,000 of revenue, while its market capitalization is nearly $8 billion.
The Positives of Fervo Energy
The company has a huge “potential backlog” of $7.2 billion, and it has made power purchase agreements with a number of corporate heavyweights, including Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Shell (SHEL), and Southern California Edison, while Bill Gates and Alphabet are among its investors. A fairly large fossil-fuels exploration and development company, Devon Energy (DVN), has also invested in Fervo.
On the technology front, Fervo utilizes innovative “horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques similar to what drove the shale revolution,” Politico reported. Further, on July 9, Fervo reported that it had improved its “drilling rates” by 143%. This accomplishment can help the firm attain its goal of lowering the cost of its first geothermal plant from a projected $5,500 per kilowatt to $3,000 per kilowatt in the long term.
Analysts are also tentatively positive on FRVO stock with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and an average price target that's about 70% higher than its current price.
The Negatives of Fervo Energy
FRVO stock has a market capitalization of nearly $8 billion, even though analysts on average expect its revenue to come in at just $7.16 million this year and only $80 million in 2027. Even based on the 2027 figure, its price-sales ratio comes in at a gargantuan total of almost 100 times. Further, investment bank Jefferies has warned that the launch of the company's energy systems could be delayed by electricity “transmission constraints” at “most (of its sites).”
Finally, in the last month, FRVO stock has tumbled 22%. In the past, I've noted that sometimes the shares of companies that have developed new technologies rise tremendously, only to subsequently tumble sharply. Among the energy companies that have undergone this phenomenon in the last 15 years are many solar energy producers, FuelCell Energy (FCEL), and Gevo (GEVO).
