Some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks shined brightest in Week 3. Tua Tagovailoa fully dismantled the Denver Broncos. Josh Allen did the same on a smaller scale to the Washington Commanders. Justin Herbert put together a massive afternoon, then watched the Minnesota Vikings give away a win before his Los Angeles Chargers could.
The NFL is all about balance, however. These star performances were cantilevered by truly awful ones in losing — and winning! — efforts. That’s why this column exists. Now we’ve just got to figure out who truly played the grossest football of the bunch.
Who was the worst? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 3 EPA against their 2022 average (or the small sample size of their 2023, if they hadn’t played enough) we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the third game of the 2023 season.
8
Honorable mention: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: -2.3
Week 3 EPA: 22.2
Difference: 24.5 points better
Yeah, the overall performance was Watson’s best game as a Brown. But the stats hardly tell you that Watson did this:
— . (@nothighlighthea) September 24, 2023
That should count for -50 points on its own. Man, what the hell?
7
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 14.4
Week 3 EPA: 6.0
Difference: 8.4 points worse
The curse of a small sample size created a precipitous drop for Love in his fourth-career start. The fourth year quarterback played efficient football in the first two weeks of the season thanks to easy passes and open wideouts that masked his inability to fit the ball into tight windows downfield. A -8.6 completion percentage over expected (CPOE) suggested he was due for a major regression.
That’s what the New Orleans Saints brought to Wisconsin for three quarters.
First the good news: Love led the Packers back from a 17-0 deficit. He ran for one touchdown and threw for another to cap off back-to-back 80-yard fourth quarter drives in an 18-17 win that confirmed Green Bay’s status as a member of the NFC playoff race. If you ignore the first 45 minutes, it was a performance that will stack nicely next to some of Aaron Rodgers’ rallies in green and yellow.
However, those three scoreless quarters remain a vital part of this game. The Packers’ short-range offense was hamstrung by Alontae Taylor and Love’s inability to make the Saints pay with big throws downfield.
Jordan Love, oof pic.twitter.com/kA5HE6C0qT
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 24, 2023
At one point he ran the Packers out of scoring range:
Love ran himself out of field goal position to lose 14 yards on the sack. gruesome. pic.twitter.com/KOCqTFXr6Q
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 24, 2023
And on a crucial fourth-and-two, he was woefully out of sync with his own target.
ok i'm not feeling as good about the Jordan Love era as i was a couple weeks ago pic.twitter.com/V5T2EnCV1M
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 24, 2023
This, of course, didn’t matter. All those misfires will be relegated to film study because the only thing that matters is Love figured it out at nearly the last possible moment. After a disastrous beginning, he came around to record a positive EPA. It just wasn’t at the level of his prior two starts, so here we are.
6
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: -3
Week 3 EPA: -12.9
Difference: 9.9 points worse
Midway through the second quarter, the New England Patriots had 164 more net yards than Wilson’s Jets. This was notable, because the Patriots had only gained 163 yards.
Wilson was exactly the kind of player who forces you to trade multiple premium draft picks for a 39-year-old former MVP with a gargantuan contract. He was once again roundly harassed by a Patriot defense that relishes nothing with quite the same vigor they apply to ruining the Jets’ young quarterbacks.
Zach Wilson got sacked by a ghost LMFAOOOOOOOOOO pic.twitter.com/yXJOz1aZz5
— GC (@ValverdeSZN) September 24, 2023
Wilson was shaken in the pocket and inaccurate downfield so, you know, classic Zach Wilson behavior. He wasn’t helped by rainy weather that merely created more opportunities to mock his shot put heaves beyond the line of scrimmage.
Aaron Rodgers, thank you for your sacrifice so we could have throws like this pic.twitter.com/ZNQjXyhUID
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 24, 2023
There was a brief moment when Wilson had a chance to play the hero. His defense left the Patriots, minus Pharoh Brown somehow, stuck in neutral most of the game. An 87-yard touchdown drive pulled the score to 13-10, and a New England punt gave the Jets an opportunity to drive for a game-winning touchdown in the final three minutes.
That is not what happened.
Yes, @man_dammn ✌️
📺 on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/wIAFx5CxCW
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 24, 2023
5
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -0.4
Week 3 EPA: -12.9
Difference: 12.5 points worse
Between Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Ridder has two young studs with enormous catch radii. This is, unfortunately, meaningless when he can’t even put the ball in their respective orbits.
Ridder has been spiraling this 2nd half, off target here on a critical 4th down pic.twitter.com/qHPqwc5fTa
— Tre’Shon (@tre3shon) September 24, 2023
Ridder sat right on the axis of average after two games but appeared completely broken against the Detroit Lions’ smothering pass rush. He missed some open targets, blanked others and struggled to fit the ball into tight windows downfield. Some of these miscues were the logical extension of growing pains for a young quarterback in his seventh NFL start.
Some were not.
Desmond Ridder, turning the wrong way for a play fake before casually tossing a hospital ball over the middle pic.twitter.com/IL2uYWBLTj
— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) September 24, 2023
What’s especially distressing is Ridder’s weakness on short passes. The Falcons rely on these modest gains to keep their offense on schedule and create viable rushing situations for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in second/third-and-manageable situations. But Ridder only completed 13 of 22 passes that traveled between zero and nine yards downfield. That’s a 59.1 percent completion rate on the easiest throws in his playbook; last season, the NFL average was 77.8.
That’s bad! Ridder couldn’t even get the basics down on Sunday and wasted a solid defensive effort in the process. Atlanta is a team that would like nothing more than to keep your offense off the field while slowing grinding you into paste. But in Week 3 the Lions controlled the ball for nearly six more minutes than the Falcons. Ridder shoulders much of the blame for that, but there’s hope this was a one-off problem.
4
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.2
Week 3 EPA: -11.7
Difference: 12.9 points worse
Fields’ awful year three continued as the Chiefs shredded him like wrapping paper and kept his offense stuck in neutral for yet another week. Over the Bears’ first nine drives, Fields had thrown for 42 yards on 16 attempts. This, incredibly, created a situation where one garbage time drive made up the bulk of both Chicago’s passing yardage AND total points.
Yeesh.
Fields
3
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 4.6
Week 3 EPA: -8.7
Difference: 13.3 points worse
On Thursday night, without Saquon Barkley in the lineup, Jones was nearly two touchdowns worse than he’d typically been in 2022’s breakthrough season. This feels like something Barkley’s agent can use as free agency finally, mercifully approaches next spring (though she should probably downplay the reason *why* Barkley is missing time yet again).
Jones completed 22 passes, only two of which traveled more than 10 yards downfield. His passer rating on all eight throws that weren’t labeled by NFL stats as “short” passes came out to a robust 2.6. This is how he dropped back 34 times and new only 121 yards of total offense.
This is the player for whom New York extended a four-year, $160 million contract. Fortunately, there were extenuating circumstances at play. Jones was without Barkley. His receiving corps remains a smattering of WR3 types. His offensive line, already shaky, was further depleted by injury.
But still, this was a rough one.
Daniel Jones looking at the 49ers defense has me cryin 😂😂#NYGvsSF pic.twitter.com/kw9nhWiCu8
— Tony Clements (@TonyCMKE) September 22, 2023
2
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.4
Week 3 EPA: -12.1
Difference: 14.5 points worse
Tannehill was awful in Week 1. He wasn’t especialy good to begin Week 2, but came online in time to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in an efficient performance. This created room for hope in Week 3 after a weak start against the Cleveland Browns’ potent defense.
This was all for naught. Tannehill stunk in Cleveland.
Despite trailing throughout the game, the veteran only attempted 13 passes that traveled more than four yards downfield Sunday. He finished the game with more sacks taken (five) than completions on said throws (four).
That speaks to the root of the problem. Tennessee’s blocking is butt. Tannehill was hit or sacked on 13 of 30 dropbacks. When he did get the ball out, those quickly shrinking pockets meant he had no chance of watching his deep routes develop. A player who’d been sacked roughly one in eight snaps coming into Week 3 got battered again and the result was a complete and utter vacation of the Titans’ offense.
Honestly, what the hell is Tannehill supposed to do when stuff like this happens regularly?
4th sack of the day for the @Browns goes to Alex Wright – the first sack of his career!
📺: #TENvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05gT8f pic.twitter.com/sQtlV9Dm6d— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023
1
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.3
Week 3 EPA: -24.1
Difference: 26.4 points worse
Howell had exceeded expectations in Washington’s 2-0 start. He wasn’t prolific but remained calm in the pocket, avoided turnovers and made key plays when called upon.
Time will tell whether that was a facade or who Howell is as a quarterback, but the Buffalo Bills knocked down those walls like junior high drama club scenery.
First career interception. ☑️
First career touchdown. ☑️📺: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/EmM54fHPAD
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 24, 2023
Howell had no answers for the Bills’ defense. The secondary kept his top options in solid converage and the pass rush made sure he wasn’t getting to his checkdowns with any sort of comfort. Buffalo sacked Ridder on nine of his 38 dropbacks — a savage 23.6 percent sack rate. That defense hit him on 15 of his 29 pass attempts. By the end of the day, Howell’s most viable strategy was the power of prayer.
TRE' DAY‼️
📺: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/x2fbNsZZzi
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 24, 2023
Howell was thoroughly outclassed in his fourth-ever start. The Bills made it a point to show there are levels to this game and that the Commanders have yet to approach theirs.
