ORLANDO, Fla. — Gov. Ron DeSantis comes out of the weekend’s Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando boosted by a higher profile as the governor of a state he called “an oasis of freedom” from COVID-19 restrictions.
But CPAC also highlighted the biggest obstacle in his potential path to a GOP presidential nomination three years from now: his own political mentor, former President Donald Trump.
“He freezes everybody, including DeSantis,” said Mac Stipanovich, a former Republican consultant in Tallahassee turned anti-Trump independent. “But at the same time, (DeSantis) can continue to position himself, as he has done with some success, as the second choice — believing that Trump will not run, and that he’ll thereby become the first choice.”
In a straw poll of CPAC attendees, just 68% actually said they wanted Trump to run again in 2024, a smaller number than expected considering his 97% job approval among participants.
The other 32% either said he shouldn’t run or had no opinion.
The lukewarm support of a Trump 2024 run by the hardcore Trump supporters who made up the CPAC attendees could hint at a potential path forward for DeSantis.
In a separate straw poll of potential candidates without Trump, DeSantis came in first with 43%. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem came in second with 11% and Donald Trump Jr. got 8% for third.
But with Trump included, Trump was still the choice of 55% of attendees, with DeSantis a distant second with 21%.
CPAC was filled with would-be GOP presidential nominees, from DeSantis to U.S. Sens. Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz.
But Stipanovich said they all have to bide their time and appear loyal.
“They have to be respectful,” Stipanovich said. “And they have to be patient. I don’t think they believe that Trump will actually be a candidate in 2024. ... So you just pretend that you assume he will, in order to maintain the loyalty of that 68%.”
DeSantis arguably owes his governorship to Trump, having bolted into the lead in the 2018 GOP gubernatorial primary thanks to a single tweet endorsement by the then-president.
DeSantis famously released an ad in which he taught his young children phrases such as, “Build the wall,” and “You’re fired,” while reading his infant son Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal.”
Several attendees at CPAC said the party needed young blood and said they would back DeSantis in 2024. But many others said he would have to take a back seat to Trump.
Trump repeatedly danced around the idea of running for a second, non-consecutive term, including tying the idea into his falsehoods about having won the 2020 election.
“Who knows? I might even decide to beat them (the Democrats) for a third time,” Trump said.
Stipanovich, though, said that the 68% of CPAC attendees who want Trump to run again was low for a supposedly rabidly pro-Trump group.
“What you’re seeing in that number is they believe they’d lose again,” he said. “And they would prefer to win. … Even the Trumpiest of the Trump base is leery of a Trump dynasty.”
Still, he added, CPAC straw polls haven’t been too predictive in the past, as Ron Paul has won them several times. And a group of people traveling across the country to attend a conference amid a pandemic were self-selected to strongly support DeSantis and Noem, two of the most anti-COVID-19 restriction governors in the country.
Masks were sparse, and enforcement was sporadic from the hotel and CPAC. Attendees booed CPAC staff off the main stage when asked to follow mask mandates from the Hyatt. Throughout the convention, attendees would take masks off when taking pictures and speaking to one another.
Orange County’s COVID “strike team” made a visit to CPAC on Friday and found that the Hyatt made every effort to enforce the mask mandate, according to the report.
“The pandemic is still very much on people’s minds,” Stipanovich said. “But come 2024 that won’t be an issue. … So my general feeling is (DeSantis) is a bubble, an effervescence that appears on the surface and will pop, and another bubble will appear. The next bubble may be DeSantis again, on another issue. That’ll we’ll find out how skilled he is.”
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