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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Democrats remain clear favourites to gain control of Congress at midterms as Trump’s ratings slide again

Donald Trump Nate Silver Democratic Party Midterm Elections United States House of Representatives Republican Iran War Gas Prices Iran

With eight days until the November 3 US midterm elections, Democrats have a three in four chance of gaining control of the Senate, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver’s forecast model.

Democrats lead Republicans by 9.5 points on the generic ballot, and Donald Trump’s net approval is -23.3. There hasn’t been much change in the forecast during October.

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