New York (AFP) - Few expected New York to figure among the political battlegrounds in play in the United States ahead of Tuesday's crucial vote, but Democrats are scrambling as a Trump-backer gains substantial ground statewide and pivotal races narrow.
Factors ranging from inflation to public safety perceptions have fostered competitive House fights in the state Democrats thought they had in the bag, and where high city turnout will be crucial to staving off a major upset in a remarkably tight gubernatorial race.
Over the summer incumbent Kathy Hochul enjoyed a comfortable lead, as New York state's first woman to become governor leaned into the message that her Republican opponent, congressman Lee Zeldin, would roll back abortion rights after the Supreme Court's decision to scrap a federal guarantee.
But come October the numbers took a sharp turn, showing that Zeldin -- a recent Trump defender who wouldn't certify Joe Biden's election and who has voted to curtail access to abortion and limit gun control -- had brought the race within 10 points, with one Quinnipiac poll showing it shrink to four.
"I think that this is the most realistic chance for a Republican to win a statewide office in New York" since the party's last governor, George Pataki, won two decades ago, said Jay DeDapper of Marist Polls.
Over the weekend Democrats flew in their heaviest hitters, including President Biden, Kamala Harris and the Clintons, to campaign alongside Hochul, 64, who upgraded to the governor's mansion after Andrew Cuomo resigned in August 2021.
At a Hochul rally, Biden framed the race as one of many that will determine US democracy's fate.
"It's a choice between two fundamentally different visions of America," the president said.
'Hurting my pocket'
The eleventh-hour barnstorming comes amid handwringing within the party that the state they thought was a safe space might be slipping out of their grip.
"Democrats clearly don't want this to be the kind of thing that Republicans can stand up around the country and say 'We won in New York," said the pollster."That's a terrible message, terrible for Democrats."
Mona Kleinberg, a Queens College political scientist, said Zeldin's surge stemmed from tough-on-crime messaging that has "really resonated with New Yorkers" who simultaneously feel economically strapped.
"National politics have really bled into local politics," Kleinberg said."People aren't just voting on Lee Zeldin and Kathy Hochul, they're really voting on where they want to see Washington go."
Effie Cassar, a 48-year-old who runs a transportation business on Long Island, voted twice for Barack Obama but then opted for Trump.
"I'm not really big into politics all that much, but I just see what's hurting my pocket," he told AFP."Everyone I talk to, they all want to vote Republican this time around."
"When you get hit hard in the pocket, you tend to make change."
Democrat 'enthusiasm gap'
Zeldin was not particularly well-known prior to his gubernatorial primary win but the 42-year-old is extremely well-funded.
The billionaire cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder has spent more than $11 million in support of Zeldin's candidacy, including attack ads on Hochul.
He also backed successful efforts to bar Democrats from gerrymandering the state's new congressional maps to their advantage, as Republicans have done across the country.
Democrats now are playing defense in New York state over a whopping nine contested seats, which could be instrumental in shaping the House's political tilt.
It's a striking development in a state where twice as many residents are registered as Democrats than Republicans.
Kleinberg cited an "enthusiasm gap" among Democrats whose potentially apathetic turnout could hurt Hochul, especially in left-leaning strongholds including the Bronx and Brooklyn.
Along with the city Hochul, a conservative Democrat who herself heralds from more Republican-friendly upstate New York, will need a clincher of at least some suburban support.
Jay Gingrich, a neurologist from the Hudson Valley's Westchester County just north of the city, told AFP he's confident Hochul will win if Democrats post ample turnout.
But if too many people stay home Zeldin could win, the 62-year-old said.
"I'm not ruling it out."
