Democratic candidates hold a 53%–41% edge on the national congressional ballot among registered voters, a 12-point margin, according to a NPR/PBS News/Marist survey of 1,280 people conducted Sept. 14–15. Marist's previous reading, taken in May, showed a 10-point Democratic advantage, so the gap has stretched by about two points since then.
With Election Day, Nov. 3, less than six weeks away, the numbers also show how much of the midterm conversation revolves around the White House. Some 45% of voters describe their congressional choice as mainly an act of opposition to Donald Trump, while 24% say it is mainly an act of support. Trump's approval stands at 39%, and 53% of respondents strongly disapprove of his performance.
Why the 12-Point Figure Needs Context
The Marist result is the high end of the registered-voter readings, not a consensus. The Marquette Law School national survey, fielded Sept. 2–9 with 1,023 adults, found Democrats ahead 50%–42% among registered voters, an 8-point gap that compares with a 2-point gap in July. Among likely voters, the Democratic advantage grows to 54%–41%, or 13 points, up from 6 in July.
The Silver Bulletin polling average offers a third reference point. As of Sept. 23, it showed Democrats ahead by 8.1 points, or 8.8 points once it adjusts toward likely voters. The average is refreshed daily, so those figures can move. Because it blends many surveys, it works as a cross-check rather than as an additional, independent poll.
Sampling error matters too. Marist's margin of error of 3.8 points applies to each party's individual share, which means the difference between the two carries more uncertainty than a single headline number implies. Taken together, the fair reading is a Democratic lead somewhere between 8 and 13 points, depending on the poll and how voters are screened.
Independents Lean Democratic, but Many Sit Out
Marist finds independents favoring the Democratic candidate 57%–32%, a 25-point spread in a group that can swing close House and Senate contests. Marquette adds a note of caution about those who identify with neither party: they prefer Democrats 41%–10%, yet 40% say they like neither candidate and 8% say they will not vote. Only 41% of this group say they will definitely turn out, which limits its practical weight.
The Enthusiasm Gap Favors Democrats
Turnout intentions may explain why Marquette's likely-voter margin is wider than its registered-voter margin. Some 47% of Democrats call themselves very enthusiastic about casting a ballot, against 32% of Republicans, and 77% of Democrats say they will definitely vote, versus 69% of Republicans.
The Republican shortfall is concentrated among voters less attached to the president. Among Republican registered voters who strongly approve of Trump, 81% say they will definitely vote. That share falls to 61% among those who somewhat approve and to 56% among those who disapprove of his job performance.
Prices and the Iran War Weigh on Trump's Numbers
Cost of living dominates the mood. In Marquette's survey of adults, just 19% approve of how Trump is managing inflation and living costs, and 64% believe his policies are pushing inflation higher. His approval is 28% on the economy and 26% on the war with Iran. His overall job approval is 37%, down from 40% in July and 48% at the start of his second term, and strong approval has fallen to 15%, nearly half its early-2025 level.
Marist reports a similar squeeze at the household level: 34% of voters say their family's finances have deteriorated over the past year, while 20% say they have improved. Voters in that poll also trust Democrats more on the economy, gas prices and foreign policy.
Where Republicans Still Hold Ground
Republicans retain advantages on some issues. In Marquette's data, adults give the GOP the edge on defense, crime and border security, and Trump's 49% approval on border security is his best mark on any issue the pollster tested. Marist shows how much the immigration gap has narrowed, with Democrats ahead 41%–38%, a reversal of the traditional pattern in which Republicans lead on that topic.
Neither Party Is Popular
Democrats are gaining without winning over the public. Marquette finds 64% of adults disapprove of Democrats in Congress, the same share that disapproves of congressional Republicans. Still, approval of congressional Democrats has climbed from 29% in March 2025 to 36%, while approval of congressional Republicans has slipped from 45% to 36% over the same period.
What a Generic Ballot Can and Cannot Tell You
A generic ballot gauges national sentiment, not individual races. District lines, candidate quality, campaign spending and turnout can all move results in ways a national survey does not capture, and the numbers represent a snapshot rather than a forecast. Even so, a president below 40% approval and voters still focused on prices leave Republicans with a demanding map to defend in November.
