Welcome to the Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026, Brew.
By: Lara Bonatesta
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Democrats have won 13 previously Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections since Trump took office
- Arkansas is one of six states that will decide on citizenship voting requirement ballot measures in November
- States become responsible for 75% of SNAP administrative costs
Democrats have won 13 previously Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections since Trump took office
Democrats have gained a net of 13 state legislative seats in special elections since January 2025 — all of which changed from Republican to Democratic control. Republicans have not won any Democratic-held seats during President Donald Trump's (R) second term.
In the first two years of Trump's first term, Democrats gained a net 19 seats in special elections: 11 in 2017 and eight in 2018.
Through Sept. 25, there were 89 districts where a Democrat appeared on both the special election ballot and the previous general election ballot, and 84 districts where a Republican did the same. In the 89 districts where Democrats ran both times, Democrats’ average special election vote was 38% of their vote totals in the previous regular general elections. In the 84 districts where Republicans ran both times, Republican average special election vote totals were 29% of their vote totals in the previous regular general elections.
Among the 62 districts where candidates from both major parties ran in both the special and most recent general elections, the average margin-of-victory (MOV) shifted 5.1 percentage points toward Democrats. Forty-seven of those 62 districts (76%) shifted toward Democrats, and 15 (24%) shifted toward Republicans.
The 13 seats that Democrats won were in: Mississippi (3), Florida (2), Iowa (2), Pennsylvania (2), and one each in Arkansas, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas.
As a result of these elections, Republicans lost supermajority status in the Mississippi Senate and the Iowa Senate. No chambers changed party hands as a result of special elections in 2025 or 2026.
Despite the Democratic gains in special elections, Republicans continue to hold an overall partisan advantage in state legislatures. As of Sept. 25, Republicans held 55.02% of the 7,386 state legislative seats nationwide, compared to 43.84% for Democrats. Republicans held majorities in 57 legislative chambers, and Democrats held majorities in 39.
Additional state legislative special elections are scheduled in November 2026.
Click here to read more about vote totals and margins of victory in state legislative special elections during Trump's second term.
Arkansas is one of six states that will decide on citizenship voting requirement ballot measures in November
Welcome to our next installment of our 50 States in 50 Days series, covering Arkansas. To view our archive of past editions, click here.
Arkansas is one of six states that will decide on a ballot measure that would prohibit noncitizen voting.
Issue 1 would amend the state constitution to provide that “Only a citizen of the United States meeting the qualifications of an elector … may vote in an election in this state,” including local elections. Currently, 18 states include language explicitly prohibiting noncitizen voting in their constitutions.
Alaska, Arizona, Kansas, South Dakota, and West Virginia are deciding similar measures. All of them, except for the one in Alaska, are legislatively-referred constitutional amendments. The measure in Alaska is a citizen initiative and would establish the requirement in state law.
From 2018 to 2025, voters decided on 15 ballot measures about citizenship requirements for voting. Voters approved all 15 measures.
Want to see what’s on your ballot this November? Click here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup Tool. Now let’s take a closer look at what’s happening in Arkansas.
Early voting opens Oct. 19 and ends Nov. 2.
Polls open on Election Day at 7:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m.
Voter ID is required. Acceptable forms of ID include a driver’s license, ID card, passport, or concealed handgun carry license. For more information on voter ID in Arkansas, click here.
Absentee/mail-in ballots must be requested by Oct. 27 and received by Nov. 3. If a person returns an absentee/mail-in ballot in person, the deadline is Oct. 30. Under a 2025 law, absentee voters must sign their absentee ballot statement in the presence of a witness unless they qualify for an exemption due to illness, physical disability, residence in a long-term-care facility, or other reasons.
Current party control
Republicans represent all four congressional districts. Both of Arkansas’ U.S. Senators are also Republicans.
Republicans have a 27-6 majority with two vacancies in the Arkansas Senate and a 79-20 majority with one vacancy in the Arkansas House of Representatives. Because the governor is a Republican, Arkansas is one of 23 states with a Republican trifecta. Arkansas’ attorney general and secretary of state are also Republicans. As a result, Arkansas is one of 24 states with a Republican triplex. Five of the seven members of the state supreme court joined via nonpartisan elections. Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) initially appointed two justices to fill vacancies.
Offices on the ballot
Elections are taking place for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, seven state executive offices, 17 state senate seats, and all 100 state house seats.
Arkansas is one of 32 states this year in which we are covering all local elections for school boards and municipal offices.
Battleground elections
As of Sept. 29, Ballotpedia had not identified any congressional or statewide races in Arkansas in November as battlegrounds. Major election forecasters rated both the state’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections as Solid/Safe Republican. Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R), Hallie Shoffner (D), and Jeff Wadlin (L) are running in the general election for U.S. Senate. Incumbent Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), Fredrick Love (D), and Colt Shelby (L) are running for governor.
Statewide ballot measures
There are four statewide measures on the ballot this year – all legislative referrals. Between 2000 and 2025, Arkansas voters decided on 50 measures, approving 34 and defeating 16. An average of between three and four measures appeared on the ballot per even-numbered year.
We mentioned one of the four measures – Issue 1 – above. Here's a closer look at the other three measures.
Issue 2 would amend the state constitution to provide a right to possess and use ammunition, firearm accessories, and firearm components without limitation. The amendment would also state that the right to keep and bear arms is “a natural, fundamental, and individual right that shall not be infringed.” Currently, 45 states have a right to bear arms in their constitutions, and five states – California, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New York – do not.
Issue 3 would amend the state constitution to allow the Legislature to establish programs, including Economic Development Districts (EDDs), and to create loans and grants using public funds to advance economic development purposes in the state. As of 2026, EDDs did not exist in Arkansas.
Issue 4 would authorize, by statute, the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission (ANRC) to issue up to $500 million in bonds to fund water-related infrastructure projects. Such projects would include water treatment and transportation, waste disposal, pollution abatement, drainage, irrigation, flood control, and infrastructure for wetlands and aquatic resources.
Each measure requires a simple majority to pass.
Local ballot measures
We’ll be adding information about local measures in Arkansas as they are certified ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
Notable local elections
In three notable local elections, all of the candidates on the November ballot completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey.
Arkansas State Circuit Court District 4 Division 2: Wendy Howerton and Kristin Pawlik are in the nonpartisan general election runoff, after no candidate received a majority in the three-person primary on March 3. In the primary, Howerton received 39.2% of the vote, and Pawlik received 38.3%.
Pulaski County Judge: Wendell Griffen (D) and Michael Rushin (R) are running to succeed incumbent Barry Hyde, who lost his bid for re-election in the Democratic primary. Griffen received an endorsement from the Central Arkansas Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). In his survey response, Rushin called himself a moderate with conservative values.
Washington County Judge: Dana D. Deree (D) and Tim Shepard (R) are running to succeed incumbent Patrick Deakins (R), who lost his bid for re-election in the Republican primary runoff. Deree is a Marine Corps veteran, former public school teacher, and retired U.S. diplomat. Shepard is a captain with the Fayetteville Police Department.
Join us next edition when we'll preview elections in Colorado, the Centennial State.
Click here to see every edition of 50 States in 50 Days as we publish them, and here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup Tool.
States become responsible for 75% of SNAP administrative costs
For states, Oct. 1 marks the start of an increased administrative cost share for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Each state is now responsible for funding 75% of the administrative costs of running the program in its state, while the federal government covers the remaining 25%. Previously, states split administrative costs evenly with the federal government.
The change is one of several that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — which President Donald Trump (R) signed into law in 2025 — made to SNAP. As a result, states are obligated to appropriate or disburse additional funds to the program, or reduce the overall cost of SNAP administration to address the funding gap.
Background
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act made various changes to SNAP, including expanding work requirements, limiting noncitizen eligibility, and shifting program costs to the states.
In addition to increasing states’ share of administrative costs — which had been 50% since 1974 — the bill created a new cost share for SNAP benefits themselves. The majority of the program's cost is attributable to benefit payments rather than administrative costs. Beginning in fiscal year (FY) 2028, states will be responsible for a portion of benefit costs if their payment error rate is above a certain threshold. Previously, the federal government paid the full cost of benefits.
While states are still preparing for the new benefits cost share — and members of Congress are debating a delay — the increased administrative costs are now in effect. As a result, states face additional annual administrative cost estimates that range from $670 million (California) to $3 million (Wyoming).
State responses
As of Sept. 30, the majority of states appropriated additional funds for SNAP administration in FY2027 to account for increased costs:
- Forty states had either fully or partially appropriated funds in their state budgets to offset the increased cost share.
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Four states had action pending, or Ballotpedia could not identify a response explicitly tied to SNAP administration.
- This includes legislatures that are not in session this year, or those that finalized biennial budgets before the OBBBA was enacted in 2025 and did not enact a supplemental appropriation.
- New York and North Carolina passed increased costs entirely to counties.
- Arkansas and New Hampshire declined to increase funding or rejected a specific request to fund the shift.
- Connecticut and Massachusetts increased funding for SNAP administration, but the action was not explicitly tied to the state’s increased share of administrative costs.
Zooming out
According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), changes to SNAP enacted in the OBBBA could decrease federal spending by approximately $187 billion over 10 years.
Between July 2025 and July 2026, nationwide enrollment in SNAP fell by 5.2 million people (12.5%). The Food Research & Action Center — an advocacy group — largely attributes that drop to changes that the OBBBA made. While declining enrollment reduces benefits costs and may ease the administrative workload, many states have sought additional administrative funding to implement other OBBBA changes, such as expanded work requirements, and to lower their payment error rates ahead of the benefits cost share.
The Pew Charitable Trusts described the administrative cost shift and the introduction of the benefits cost share as the "biggest structural change to SNAP since President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the program into law more than 60 years ago."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that the administrative shifts would add about $17 billion in costs for states and counties over five years.
To learn more about the implementation of SNAP provisions from the OBBBA, click here.
