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Ballotpedia
Ballotpedia
Joseph Brusgard

Democrats have the second-highest generic ballot lead in May of any midterm year

RCP RealClearPolitics the Democratic Party Trump Administration Democratic Party

The Democratic Party led the generic congressional ballot by 7.6 points at the end of May, according to RealClearPolitics. Since the start of the second Trump Administration, the highest Democratic lead recorded by RCP was on May 28, 2026, when Democrats led Republicans 49% to 41%, an eight-point margin.

This is the second-highest lead either party has had heading into May of a midterm year since 2006. The highest recorded average was in May 2006, when, according to RealClearPolitics, Democrats had a 9.8-point lead. Since 2002, Republicans have led at the end of May once, in 2022, when they had a 1.9-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot.

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