KEY POINTS
- Only 29% of the bets were placed on the GOP winning the presidency and popular vote
- Traders believe a Republican sweep is more likely in terms of the balance of power in Congress
- Most Polymarket traders bet on Pennsylvania being the 'tipping point' of the 2024 elections
Traders on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket pushed the chances of the Democratic Party winning the November elections by a wide margin over Republicans, even as the results are so far different in a separate presidential forecast on the platform.
Which Party Wins the Presidency and Popular Vote?
Cryptocurrency traders on the platform have Democrats winning both the presidency and the popular vote by 46% compared to 29% who believe the Republican Party will reign supreme in November, based on Polymarket data as of early Friday.
On the other hand, 26% of traders have it for GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump winning the presidency, and Democrats winning the popular vote. Only a meager 1% bet on the odds of Vice President Kamala Harris taking on the presidential seat with Republicans winning the popular vote.
The Balance of Power
Despite Democrats having more backing from traders over the presidency and popular vote aspect, crypto traders appear to have a different view of how things will go with power balance.
A Republican sweep is more likely (33%) for Polymarket traders than a Democratic sweep (21%). So far, traders pushed the possibility of a Democratic president, a Republican-held Senate, and Democratic-led House of Representatives to 26%.
On the contrary, a smaller number of bets (16%) were poured on the possibility of a GOP president, Republican Senate, and a Democratic House. The odds of the United States seeing a Democratic president, and a Republican sweep of both the Senate and the House are only at 4%, as of early Friday.
Which State will be the 'Tipping Point' of 2024 Elections?
On which particular state will be the "tipping point" in November, Pennsylvania has the highest percentage of bets at 34%, while 14% is on Michigan, and 13% is on Wisconsin. Georgia is in fourth place with 11% of the bets, and North Carolina is on the fifth spot at 9% as of early Friday.
Quite interestingly, Pennsylvania is a purple state that has been hard to predict since it delivered the victory to Trump in 2016. Before then, the Keystone State backed ex-President Barack Obama's 2008 and 2012 presidential bids.
On Thursday, the GOP presidential candidate widened his lead over the vice president on Polymarket in two swing states: Pennsylvania and Arizona. He is also leading his Democratic foe in Georgia and Nevada, while Kamala has taken Wisconsin and Michigan.
It remains to be seen whether the numbers will change two months before the elections. More Republicans have expressed support for digital assets in recent months, while a few Democrats have been pushing their party to take a more open-minded approach toward the industry.
Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform that allows users to buy and sell crypto to bet on the likelihood of world events.
