WASHINGTON — Democrats closed the gap with Republicans in voter enthusiasm during the final days before the U.S. midterm elections, which remain “highly competitive,” according to an NBC News poll.
While that’s a measure of good news for President Joe Biden as his party seeks to retain control of both houses of Congress, a Washington Post-ABC News poll suggests that Republicans are more certain about actually casting a vote.
Both surveys provide renewed evidence that Republicans have the edge on economic concerns and that President Joe Biden’s popularity remains low. Republicans are positioned to take control of the House, according to the Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Registered Democrats and Republicans expressing high interest in the midterms are tied at 73% in the latest NBC poll, erasing Republicans’ 9 percentage-point edge in an October survey. Several states with competitive races, including Georgia, are reporting high to record turnout in early voting.
Yet Republican-leaning voters in the Washington Post-ABC poll were more certain about voting than Democratic-leaning voters by an 80% to 74% margin. Certainty to vote among Democrats is running 8 percentage points lower than in 2018, while holding steady among Republicans.
National trends aside, control of the Senate hinges on a few key races. Biden and former President Barack Obama stumped in Pennsylvania on Saturday for U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman, whose race with Republican contender Mehmet Oz has tightened in recent weeks.
Republicans have captured the momentum and caught up in polls in several high-profile races as attention has shifted to the economy. Opposition parties traditionally do well in midterm elections, and polls show that Republicans’ focus on the economy, inflation running at 40-year highs and crime has resonated among voters.
Biden’s approval rating was little changed at 44% in the NBC poll, with 53% of registered voters disapproving of his job performance and 70% saying the US is “headed in the wrong direction.”
“President Biden and the Democrats are in for a miserable election,” Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who helped conduct the survey told NBC. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who also worked on the poll, said it shows an increasing competitiveness that could help Democrats in some races.
The Nov. 3-5 NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error in the Oct. 3-Nov. 2 Post-ABC poll of 881 registered voters was 4 points.
