Democratic insiders are worrying that Vice President Kamala Harris’s grip on the so-called “blue wall” may be slipping, and with it, the election.
Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden got to the White House by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but three people with knowledge of the Harris campaign’s strategy have told NBC News that recent discussions have focused on the possibility that Michigan or Wisconsin may end up in former President Donald Trump’s win column.
If Harris doesn’t win both Wisconsin and Michigan, she has to pick up one or two other swing states to claim the presidency even if she wins Pennsylvania.
A Harris official told NBC that Michigan is the major worry within the campaign - and Harris has made several trips to the state in recent days.
But campaign spokesperson Lauren Hitt told the outlet, “We absolutely are competing to win Michigan.”
“We think we will win Michigan,” she added, saying that she thinks Harris will win Wisconsin as well and that she saw no indications that support for the vice president is on the downturn.
Some weeks ago, advisers to the vice president said that an alternative route to victory could be to win Nevada and North Carolina if Trump secures Pennsylvania.
Four people with knowledge of the inner workings of the campaign told NBC that North Carolina is still a target for the campaign, but that they’re much less sure of a win in the Tar Heel state.
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” an official said.
The sources said Hurricane Helene and the widespread destruction and disinformation about the federal response could help Trump in the state.
One person noted that the state’s gubernatorial race has favored Democrats following a number of scandals befalling the Republican nominee Mark Robinson, who’s polling far behind the Democratic nominee Josh Stein. The individual said this has led to less investment in the entire political scene by voters.
The Democratic map expanded following the departure of President Joe Biden from the race to include states that he won in 2020 but were believed to be lost ahead of November. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and the blue wall states are now all in play. Those states are set to determine who goes to the White House.
But the initial excitement of the Harris campaign has settled into a historically close race.
“I don’t see a blue wall path or a Sun Belt path or a Southern path. I see seven states that are as close as it gets that will all be decided by margins on the ground,” Dan Kanninen, the battleground director for the Harris campaign, said recently, according to NBC.
He added: “And so we built an operation that can win close races on the ground, expecting that. And truthfully, one of the seven has as good a chance as any other to be the tipping-point state.”
Obama won the blue wall states in 2008 and 2012, with Hillary Clinton losing them to Trump in 2016, before Biden won them back in 2020.
The blue wall states have voted the same way in every election since 1988, when Democrat Michael Dukakis lost Michigan and Pennsylvania but won Wisconsin.
The head of electoral strategy for the Democratic nominees in 1988, 2000, and 2004, Tad Devine, told NBC that Harris has a small advantage in the blue wall states, having won them alongside Biden in 2020.
“Those three, the blue wall states, almost always stay together, but this year it’s an extraordinarily tight race. When you’re that close it’s easy for the state to go either way. It could happen this year,” he said.
He added: “I think it’s more likely that they will do what they have done in cycle after cycle. They will go one way or another, in unison. They are tied together historically with their voting behavior.”
Matt Baretto, a Democratic pollster, told the outlet that Harris has an edge in all three blue wall states but he added that “we know the election is going to be close. It’s going to be 1 or 2 percent in any of these states.”
“She’s drawing huge crowds and huge volunteer bases … She looks in a strong position. [But] there’s still work to be done,” he said.
