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Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated
Jon Wertheim

Debating When Federer Will Fade From the Big Three Conversation

While marveling over Novak Djokovic’s 378 weeks as the world’s No. 1 player and wondering where the WTA/CVC deal stands, here are answers to your questions this week:

Jon,

Having reached the one-year mark since the start of the war in Ukraine, I was wondering about the status of Ukrainian players ... specifically those that joined the armed forces in Ukraine. Do we know how they are doing?

Lilas Pratt
Marietta, Ga.

Based on the press conferences, stories like this and this, social media, data (i.e., rankings) and observations, it’s been a hell of a year. And we’re talking about active (mostly female) players. This is to say nothing of the retired men’s players—Sergiy Stakhovsky, Alex Dolgopolov and Andrei Medvedev—who have enlisted in the Ukrainian army.

I wrote to Dolgopolov and, rather than try and summarize life in a snapshot, he encourages everyone to follow his updates on his social media channels. Fair enough.

It’s hard not to feel bottomless sympathy for all Ukrainians.

Specific to the tennis players, one can imagine the range of emotions—anger, concern, guilt. You’re hitting a ball over a net while your country is at war (a war the country didn’t start or want.) You’re traveling while your peers are at home, fighting and dying and left without heat and electricity. It can’t be easy to see your Russian counterparts carry on when they are from the country that caused such devastation.


Jon,

Mikaela Shiffrin became the all-time leader in alpine skiing wins for women on the World Cup circuit and is my early candidate for SI’s Sportsperson of the Year. She also is a self-professed huge tennis fan, including having a spirited online relationship with Iga Swiatek (with stories like this 2022 one and a more recent one.).

If Shiffrin and Swiatek had been switched at birth, might they still have risen to the top of the sports where the other now sits? Or is it more likely that getting to those heights depends on the right person having the right natural ability and the right early training and opportunities that are just right for that particular sport? Perhaps we can still find out. At age 27, Shiffrin has six years on Matija Pecotić!

Rob

Six years and one fewer job! First, an aside: It is worth noting that Lindsey Vonn is also a big tennis fan who has shown up at various events, knows her Monfils from her Tsonga and can hit the ball well. Jannik Sinner was on a slope to become a world-class skier. Tamara Zidansek was a junior snowboarding champion in Slovenia before pivot-skipping to tennis. (See what we did there?) Djokovic has skiing in his background. Roger Federer and Martina Hingis, as well.

Anyway, there’s a school of thought that “athletes don’t pick their sport; the sport picks them.” But I think it’s more nuanced and—frustratingly—more case by case than that. Depends on the athlete, depends on the sport. If Rafael Nadal had taken his native athleticism, drive and hand-eye coordination and funneled it into soccer, could you envision him succeeding? Sure. If he had chosen basketball? Meh. Serena Williams as a soccer player? No. Serena as a swimmer? Sure. (As we know from the Super Bowl, maybe she had a golf future, as well.)

When we do this thought exercise, we tend to look at body type and play mix-and-match. LeBron James, at 6'9", 260 pounds, would have been a lumbering tennis player, but you can imagine him as a linebacker. The more interesting—and relevant—consideration is temperament. Would Serena have been happy and motivated playing on a team, depending on others for her success? Would Federer have succeeded in a more technical sport with less opportunity for creativity? Would Djokovic have enjoyed a sport like golf, where you are not counteracting an opponent?

As for your question, it’s worth considering. I am inclined to think both are extraordinary athletes, endowed with the right genes and fast-twitch fibers. And both clearly are capable of the singular focus required to be an elite athlete, especially in a team sport. No definitive answer, of course. But good question.


Jon,

Roger last won a slam in 2018. Nadal is very much active. But, say, if Novak wins his 27th slam in the year 2024 or 2025 or Nadal wins his 25th slam in those years, will that be still called Big 3 dominance? Until when does Roger Federer get reflected glory as part of this threesome? Nadal and Djokovic did not get included in Roger's all-conquering glow in 2004-07. Shouldn't the same individual credit be given to Nadal and Djokovic from here on, without endlessly talking about the Big 3? What is the statute of limitations on glorification of Big 3 when one of Novak or Rafa win slams?

VK

Given that the previous argument was/is about the grouping of a “Big Four,” when the scoreboard is 22-22-20-4, I’m not sure there will be much outrage about a “Big Three” if it’s, say, 27-23-20. Three guys. Contemporaries. Each with at least 20 majors. Dozens of encounters in majors? Each with stints at No. 1. Each with Davis Cup wins. Each with Olympic medals. That’s hard to unyoke.

Your larger point is well taken. When does Federer fade from the conversation? Dazzling, graceful player? Check. Artist? Check. A lovely human being who seemed to make time for everyone? Check. But numbers loom large in sports assessment, and the math doesn’t really work. 

If Djokovic and Nadal both retired tomorrow, they would still have two additional majors and a winning head-to-head record. Covering Federer in his prime, I would have bet my home I would have never seen a male player in my lifetime eclipse his status.

Imagine saying to him in, say, 2008:

“Good news! You will not only overtake Sampras but you will win 20. Twenty—2, 0—majors.”

“Holy cow. That’s awesome. What’s the bad news?”

“Before you retire, you’ll be on the bronze medal stand.”

“Did you say bronze?”

“Crazy, right?”


Jon,

If you could make a biopic of one tennis player, alive or dead, who would it be?

Loretta

Great question. All depends, of course, on what you’re going for. Dark? Light? Contemporary? Historical relevance? Tennis-centric? Tennis as a way to explore deeper and weightier themes?

My off-the-top-of-my-head top five, in no particular order:

  • Alice Marble (I know various people have tried to option and develop this).
  • Torben Ulrich.
  • Bill Tilden.
  • Martina Navratilova–Chris Evert as dueling dual narratives.
  • Recent bias, but just this week, someone told me about a Polish player (Jewish) who served in World War II, competed at Wimbledon and then became friends with (and maybe a tennis teacher of?) Pope John Paul II. Was going to descend into the rabbit hole and try to learn more. Anyone know anything about this?

Jon,

I was looking through an old program and came across Monica Puig’s name. She, of course, won a gold medal for Puerto Rico at the 2016 Olympics but didn’t do much since. I see she is retired. Is this for good? Any thoughts about her?

Charles
Brooklyn

Funny, I was just talking to a friend, and Puig’s name came up. She was one of the more enduring stories from those Rio Olympics in 2016—and never quite made a mark on the sport after that. She is indeed retired, but you can see her on a variety of networks. (For what it’s worth, she draws high easy-to-work-with marks at Tennis Channel.) She’s 29, which is “middle age” in tennis years, but I would not bet on a comeback. Not with a stubborn shoulder injury that didn’t mend after multiple surgeries. Other news: She married former Georgia Tech player Nathan Rakitt a few months ago. Sources also report she is channeling her competitive instincts into training for marathons.


Jon,

Regarding the desire for someone to be more aggro about their chances, the upcoming match, how they relate to one of those players, I’m reminded of the ATP player who, upon being asked how they felt about playing some top shelf guy in the next round, said, “I’m looking forward to it. If I don’t play them I can’t beat them.” It might not be an exact quote (but for the 2nd sentence), and I can’t remember who said it, but the attitude is the right one.

Skip Schwarzman
Philly

Good question. I couldn’t find that quote verbatim, but I love the sentiment. Ironically, it reminds me of Djokovic’s attitude, circa 2007 to ’10, toward Nadal and Federer. (I paraphrase here, but not by much: “I want to face those guys. I may not win. But I want the yardstick. If I avoid them, I’ll never even be in position to beat them.”)

Mirza will be missed

A few of you asked about Sania Mirza, who retired last week. I’m not sure most fans realize what a pathbreaker she was and how the WTA will profoundly feel her absence. I’m not sure that, outside of India, she ever quite got the credit she deserved. Here’s the cut-and-paste for what we say about other players (Ons Jabeur, Li Na, to some extent Djokovic) who become not just sports stars but national emblems: “They are pioneers. They carry the hopes of a nation. They inspire a generation.”

But there’s a real material impact, large and small. Most players have their fans, but they don’t shape the image of their country, or have national leaders attend their big matches, or have their faces adorn postage stamps.

One imagines this must be a source of motivation for these players—both day-to-day and at 4–4 in a decisive set. It must also be an immense source of strain. Every day is like the Davis Cup/Billie Jean King Cup. So much respect for Mirza to emerge as this trailblazing athlete (from the world’s second-most-populous country, no less) and sustain excellence for two decades. All while playing under a set of pressure and scrutiny and expectation that so many of her peers will never know.

One last note ...

Australian Open champion and World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka has committed to compete in the Credit One Charleston Open, the largest women’s-only tennis tournament in North America. The tournament, which was recently named the WTA 500 Tournament of the Year, is the annual clay season kickoff event on the WTA Hologic Tour.

The event is set to return to the renovated and modernized Credit One Stadium on Daniel Island from April 1 to 9. With the addition of Sabalenka, the player field now showcases five of the world’s top 10 players, including No. 3 Jessica Pegula, No. 4 Ons Jabeur, No. 8 Daria Kasatkina and No. 9 Belinda Bencic.

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