With Labour trailing in the polls, Chris Hipkins' team will feel he has to come out on top in tonight’s TVNZ debate. To do this Hipkins will need to draw his opponent into the contest and beat him.
Opinion: The first of the televised leaders' debates is tonight, and for Labour leader Chris Hipkins it is shaping up to be a must-win contest.
Most of the political debates so far in the election campaign, and there have been many, have been faux debates.
READ MORE:
* The first big leaders’ debate, bar the PM
* Luxon and media playing intense game of hide and seek
* Chris Hipkins unleashes as he prepares for dogfight
With a few notable exceptions, the debates organised by lobby groups, community groups and media companies have produced little in the way of genuine contests.
They are question and answer sessions where politicians make statements. Rarely do they challenge their rivals with anything other than preprepared jibes. Most are either not skilled enough or confident enough to debate, even if the format allows for it.
For most of these early debates Labour refused to send in any cabinet ministers and often relied on backbench MPs, who appeared out of their depth.
Some of the debates, such as the Taxpayers' Union event in Auckland, were in bars. Alcohol tends to increase the amount of heckling as the attendees look for the politicians to entertain them as much as inform them. In that debate the experienced Willie Jackson was practically goaded into a mistake where he claimed National and Act had plans to axe or reduce the minimum wage. He later got a public telling off from Hipkins.
Many of these debates could be watched online but the audience numbers would barely have made it into the thousands. A poor performance by a politician was mostly inconsequential.
Tonight’s TVNZ debate will be a different story. In 2020 more than a million viewers watched at least part of the first leaders' debate. The television debates do count. In a tight election a good performance, or a blunder, by a leader has the potential to have an impact on the race.
With Labour trailing in the polls, Chris Hipkins' team will feel he has to win. To do this Hipkins will need to draw his opponent into a debate and get the better of him. National leader Christopher Luxon, on the other hand, could be happy with a draw or an inconclusive result. He may choose to stay out of the fray but that also has its risks. Jacinda Ardern tried this tactic in the first leaders' debate in 2020 and allowed Judith Collins to walk out of the studio looking like a winner.
Hipkins will fancy his chances. He is a hugely experienced debater – in Parliament. He will hope his apprenticeship in a tough arena gives him the edge over his inexperienced rival, at least in this first debate.
It is less than two years since Luxon made his debut in Parliament’s debating chamber. He stumbled but not badly and later told TVNZ Breakfast: "It felt really good, and I really enjoyed it and I … really want to get much better at it. I sort of came out of that experience saying: 'Man, I'd love to do that all again'."
Both leaders will spend today with their media trainers honing tactics and fine tuning the answers to questions they know will be coming. Both will be coached on how to be assertive but not look rude or rattled – it can be a fine line.
Yet again, there will be no debate featuring all the leaders of the major and minor parties together. These multi-leader debates were consigned to history when National got together with Labour in 2008 and did a deal whereby Helen Clark and John Key refused to share the podium with other party leaders
The two TVNZ debates will be hosted by 1News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay.
Mutch McKay proved a safe pair of hands in TVNZ’s final debate in 2020.
TVNZ’s first debate in 2020 was a clumsy production with unstructured video inserts, bad camera angles and a bell going off every 30 seconds. Moderator John Campbell understandably struggled to keep the show on track.
Mutch McKay could well get put to the test if Hipkins decides to cut loose on Luxon and National’s planned tax cuts. Does she let it go or does she rein it in? Maybe there was a clue in what she told Stuff earlier this month: “What I tend to do for these is do a whole lot of preparation, go in there with a really clear plan, and then be prepared to throw it all out the window, depending on what they say on the day.”
Sitting back watching the debate tonight will be Newshub’s Paddy Gower. The network’s former political editor will host Three’s leaders' debate a week later. Going second can be tricky but it allows Gower and his team to look at any weaknesses the leaders exhibit on TVNZ and hatch a plan to exploit them.
Last election Three’s debate, at the Q Theatre in downtown Auckland, was the superior broadcast. Ardern literally rolled up her jacket sleeves and got stuck in. Collins gave it back and the crowd of a hundred undecided voters enjoyed a lively debate. Gower kept it moving with just the right number of yes or no questions: "Have you ever used cannabis?" (Ardern yes – Collins no.)
Gower will surely follow the same formula this time. He also has the benefit of moderating Three’s leaders' debates through two elections cycles and seems at home working in front of a live audience.
The third debate can be one of diminishing returns. TVNZ is holding it two days out from the election but by then advance voting will have been open for 10 days. In the 2020 election more than 1.5 million had already voted.
Yet again, there will be no debate featuring all the leaders of the major and minor parties together.
These multi-leader debates were consigned to history when National got together with Labour in 2008 and did a deal whereby Helen Clark and John Key refused to share the podium with other party leaders.
Given the influence Act, the Greens, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori could have on whether National or Labour can form a coalition government, it seems poor form that the big parties continue this shut out. Voters surely have a right to see how the leaders respond to each other and resolve the question of who can work with who?
The leaders of the minor parties will get put to the test though.
On September 21, Newshub Nation will host a multi-party ‘Powerbrokers debate’ featuring minor party leaders, moderated by Rebecca Wright.
This could get fiery with David Seymour and Winston Peters sure to clash. The Greens and Te Pāti Māori are sending in their co-leaders, Marama Davidson and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Both have been relatively low profile in the campaign but will want to show they can match it with their more experienced rivals.
TVNZ will hold its multi-party debate for the minors on October 5. It is leaving its line-up open until the week of the debate because of the timing of its qualifying polls.
Newsroom asked former National leader Judith Collins if she thought the televised leaders' debates carried any real sway with the public and how much pressure leaders were under to perform well.
“I don’t think the debates matter that much unless the race is really close, and I’m not sure it is. If it is closer than I think then, yes, a good or bad performance might change the minds of some voters.
“The real pressure though comes from your own team. They expect you to win.”
