Black Friday is months away, and the next Amazon Prime Day is a few weeks off. Despite that, now's the time to decide what smartwatch deal you're planning to buy, and save yourself a bunch of angst.
That might seem premature, but the last month has given us major smartwatch launches like the Galaxy Watch 7 and Ultra, Pixel Watch 3, Apple Watch Series 10, and Garmin Fenix 8. Assuming you haven't already bought one, then you're either hoping to find one for cheap on Black Friday or waiting for a fire sale on their last-gen predecessors.
I've covered Black Friday for years now, and I've seen the sales stats. People wait until the last minute, then when the big-name items aren't that cheap, they scramble to Google what's the "best deal" out of what's left and choose things that don't cost much but won't last long.
There's nothing wrong with buying cheap, but most cheap watches and trackers are discounted for a reason. You could end up with a device slated to receive no software support or new features, even if it's new out of the box. Then you're left hunting next Black Friday or Prime Day for something better.
You should know in advance which devices you'd actually consider buying, which deal prices are great or standard in context, and whether you should try to wait for something better. Thankfully, it's surprisingly simple to figure out.
Flagship smartwatch deals are easy to guess
Our site's price resource of choice is Camelcamelcamel, which tracks the total price history of specific products on Amazon; since brands usually match their Amazon prices with other sites like Best Buy and Walmart, it's a definitive deal history; just make sure you're looking at Amazon's prices, not third-party sellers.
With it, we know that Google discounted the Pixel Watch 2 for the first time in December 2023 ($50 off) and never offered anything lower until June ($60 off).
Samsung tried to be a bit trickier with the Galaxy Watch 6, discounting it about $40 throughout October Prime Day before its real $70-off discount for Black Friday. Look at the Galaxy Watch 5 the year before, and it's darn similar: $30 off in October, then $70 off starting in late November. Both watches fell even lower by the following February, but that's a long time to wait.
I looked up Apple Watch deals for the last few generations, and Apple consistently discounts its newest models either $50 or $70 off throughout fall and winter, only offering bigger deals once we get closer to the next generation.
You can use Camelcamelcamel to look at your favorite last-gen watch, phone, or other tech. Each brand has unique deal tendencies, and you can typically predict ahead of time what new products will cost during deal events. You can also have it send you a message if it detects a new low price, so you don't have to check for yourself.
So, let's say the $299 Galaxy Watch 7 looks exciting to you, even if the Galaxy Watch 6 (currently $199 on Amazon) is tempting. Well, you know from past experience that Samsung might drop the price a bit in October for the impatient, then throw out the real discount (maybe $70 off?) for the end of November.
We've also seen last-gen Galaxy Watches sell out quickly (not counting ones like the Galaxy Watch 5 Pro with their own unique lineup), regardless of deal events. The Galaxy Watch 5 hit an all-time low in October 2023 ($159), then rose to full price and only briefly fell to $230 for Black Friday before going out of stock.
That's why we're deciding on your next smartwatch now. You might want to wait until late November to buy an ultra-cheap Galaxy Watch 6, but history suggests stock might not even last that long, and that Samsung only likes selling for cheap during its next-gen launch window. If you dawdle too long, you'll miss your chance.
Picking the deals worth waiting for
From experience, most fitness watches/ trackers and smartwatches fall anywhere from $30 to $100 from their list price during Prime Day or Black Friday, then stick around that cost in December.
Any bigger cuts are usually reserved for (A) devices that are a couple of years out of date or (B) watches like the Garmin Fenix 7 that usually cost upwards of a grand, so you're still paying a lot if it's a few hundred off.
So, what's worth buying?
Apple Watches get five-ish years of OS updates, Galaxy Watches get four, and Pixel Watches get three. So anything from the Galaxy Watch 4, Pixel Watch 1, or Apple Watch S6 lineup is harder to recommend because it won't get any new software, only the occasional security patch. The newer the watch, the better the value, even if you don't "save" as much.
Any other Wear OS watch will be on its own slow update cadence, with years in-between new features. Of these, the TicWatch Pro 5 or OnePlus Watch 2 are your best bets if you spot one at an especially low price.
If you're choosing between a barely-discounted device or a slashed last-gen watch, look in advance to see what you're giving up: Our Galaxy Watch 7 vs. 6 and Pixel Watch 3 vs. 2 guides will help if you're hunting for a Wear OS watch in particular.
It's much trickier to decide if fitness watches are still worth buying because their simple software gives them a longer shelf life.
With Garmin watches, for example, you'll usually find last-gen Forerunners or Venus for hundreds off, while the newest models remain close to full price. They're still valid watches; the 2015 Forerunner 235 and 2019 Forerunner 245 were the most popular watches on Strava last year.
You're missing out on a lot of new training tools and better AMOLED displays if you buy the cheapest models, but at the same time, it's very unlikely the AMOLED Fenix 8 will dip in price. So you should research what the Fenix 7 deals could be, and decide if the price gap is enough to forego all the new tricks.
My honest recommendation is that 2022 (two years old) is the rolling cutoff point for fitness watch deals, same as it would be for picking cheap Wear OS or Apple Watches. Anything older than that will probably have battery life issues and unreliable software support for any critical bugs that pop up. Anything older or cheaper, just be ready to throw it away in a year or two and buy something new.
As I said, my recommended Black Friday / Amazon Prime Day deal strategy isn't that complicated. Look through the best Android smartwatches or best fitness watches, pick the ones you actually want, then go looking at price history for it (and its last-gen counterpart) and try to guess what's the lowest price you'd expect and how much you're willing to pay.
After that, ignore all the deal noise and wait for the one or two you care about, with a backup deal in case your favorite doesn't hit the price you expected. By doing your homework, you don't have to stress over deal hunting as much!
At the moment, the only Wear OS deal I think is worth buying is the Galaxy Watch 6 at $100 off. It was our favorite watch of the year and it's not likely to stay in stock for long.
Hardly a downgrade
The Samsung Galaxy Watch 6 may not have the 7's dual-band GPS, new Exynos chip, or doubled storage, but it's still just as fast as almost any other smartwatch, with the same design, display, battery, and software for the next three years. At $100, it's a fair trade-off!
