Closing post
That’s all from Davos from today, back tomorrow for the final sessions of this years’s WEF annual meeting….
Some late news: Saudi Arabia will host a special World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in April.
That’s according to the country’s economy minister Faisal Alibrahim.
The meeting is scheduled to take place on April 28-29.
New: Saudi Arabia to host its own World Economic Forum meeting in April.
— Jack Dutton (@jackvdutton) January 18, 2024
Updated
Wheat shipments via the Suez Canal fell by almost 40% in the first half of January to 0.5 million tonnes due to attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the World Trade Organization has revealed, in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
The data was based on a dashboard developed jointly by the International Grains Council (IGC) and the World Trade Organization, the global trade watchdog said.
📣🆕#WheatDashboard data is online!
— WTO (@wto) January 18, 2024
After a relatively strong start to the 2023/24 marketing year (Jul/Jun), world seaborne wheat imports have been consistently falling short of respective last season’s volumes since September 2023.https://t.co/7N34E2T8MX @IGCgrains @Kpler pic.twitter.com/TIqK01HBXE
👉In light of recent reported attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, wheat maritime shipments via the Suez Canal plunged in the first half of January, estimated at 0.5 million tonnes, almost 40% lower year-on-year.https://t.co/wYZi0sFKpl @IGCgrains @Kpler pic.twitter.com/clZU7AqQd1
— WTO (@wto) January 18, 2024
Ukraine’s foreign minister has revealed that Kyiv is seeking to organize a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as it tries to organise a leaders summit to push forward its blueprint for peace.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (who called for more air defence help this morning) told Bloomberg TV that the government is pushing for the direct channel between Xi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
“There are things that they can talk about,” Kuleba said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday.
Zelenskiy’s peace formula is “a way to restore long lasting just peace in Ukraine.” he added.
Douglas Emhoff, the Second Gentleman of the United States, has spoken about the rise in antisemitism today, in Davos.
Appearing on a panel, Emhoff says he had not expected to make antisemitism the focus of his role as America’s the first second gentlemen.
Instead, he expected it would be gender equity, after his wife Kamala Harris became the first female vice-president.
Emhoff says the problem of antisemitism was bad even before the attacks of October 7th, citing the terrorist shooting at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh in 2018, and the white supremacists who chanted “Jews will not replace us” at a rally in Charlottesville.
Emhoff says he didn’t experience antisemitism as a child growing up in a mixed neighbourhood in Jersey in the 1970s. But by the time the Biden-Harris administration took office, it was “very much on the radar”
Emhoff says:
It was an epidemic of hate, even back then.
Michal Herzog, the first lady of Israel, is also here - she says she’s “very saddened” that we have to hold a panel on antisemitism here at Davos.
Herzog explains that antisemitism always there, but the October 7th attack has unleashed everything. The masks were taken off.
She adds that the demonstrations in support of Palestinians started even before Israel began “its manoeuvre” in Gaza.
History has shown that hatred of jews has always been “the canary in the coalmine”, she continues, and is followed by attacks on other groups.
And she insists Israel is fighting a “war of values”, for the value of the free world against the world of evil.
Emoff calls it "a crisis of antisemitism since Oct. 7" that has consumed most of what he's been doing as second gentleman.
— Jacob N. Kornbluh (@jacobkornbluh) January 18, 2024
"There are far too many people in positions of power in the country, in the world, who shamefully stay silent when noise is required." pic.twitter.com/aRRDNHPiYv
"The antisemitism that spiked in America, in Europe didn't start when the IDF went into Gaza. It started on Oct. 7.. the bloodiest day in the history of the Jewish people since the Holocaust triggered a wave of bloody actions against Jews around the world" —@JGreenblattADL at WEF pic.twitter.com/4PMCLRZFLe
— Jacob N. Kornbluh (@jacobkornbluh) January 18, 2024
Updated
Speaking of trade… former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has warned there is a “relatively high degree of certainty” of further supply chain shocks.
Further supply shocks are coming with "relatively high degree of certainty", @markjcarney tells #WEF24.
— John Collingridge (@jmcollingridge) January 18, 2024
"The world is being rewired. Our trade routes are being rewired through derisking of supply chains; energy systems are being rewired with addressing climate change." pic.twitter.com/HLblysJ19u
Carney predicts that the "rewiring of intelligence" will be a positive supply shock later in the decade
— John Collingridge (@jmcollingridge) January 18, 2024
Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Trade, pledges that the EU are committed to the rules based multilateral trading system, and are working to preserve it.
He cautions, though, that while Europe will act multilaterally as much as it can, it is prepared to act unilaterally if it must….
@EU_Commission Vice-President @VDombrovskis stresses the importance of preserving the rules-based multilateral trading system in this difficult geopolitical juncture. "We must engage very seriously towards successful outcomes" at #MC13 in Feb in Abu Dhabi. #wef24 #WTOatWEF24 pic.twitter.com/OAuO6lHlfQ
— WTO (@wto) January 18, 2024
Canada's Deputy Prime Minister @cafreeland asks not to forget the link between trade policies & people. Whether it is trade, investment or industrial policies, the question we have to ask ourselves is: Will this make the life of the people I represent better? #wef24 #WTOatWEF24 pic.twitter.com/Jzq7mC6z4J
— WTO (@wto) January 18, 2024
Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s finance minister, tells Davos that the environment in 2024 is very different than in 2015 when she was Canada’s trade minister.
One change is the focus on supply chain resilience, which Freeland says is driven by the Covid-19 pandemic and then the Ukraine war.
Appearing on this afternoon’s panel on trade, she explains:
After the shock that we all experienced during Covid with things shut down, our people are just going to demand a little more security in their supply chains.
And then that was multiplied by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Freeland add that the global economy is facing a hugely transformative moment, which is only comparible to the industrial revolution, in terms of the energy transition, and the way manufacturing must be retooled.
She also reveals she spoke yesterday to “a very significant international business leader” who’s also a big investor in Canada. He argued that companies must be careful that decarbonisation does not mean deindustrialization.
Canada, Freeland says, is “absolutely determined” that decarbonisation will mean more jobs, more growth, and more manufacturing.
WTO chief: may miss trade growth forecast for 2024
The head of the World Trade Organisation has warned Davos that trade growth may be weaker than it expected this year.
Speaking on a panel on trade and investment, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala explains that the WTO is a little less optimistic than it had been, due to the disruption to Red Sea shipping, leading to vessels avoiding the Suez Canal, and also the drought in the Panama Canal.
The WTO had forecast that trade growth would pick up to 3.3% this year, from just 0.8% in 2023.
But, Okonjo-Iweala says uncertainty and the downgrade of global growth will both hit trade. This makes the WTO “slightly less optimistic” about hitting the 3.3% forecast, she says:
I think we’ll come in below that.
The WTO’s forecasts are currently being revised, so she doesn’t have the new numbers yet. And even if there is a cut, it’s still going to be better than last year, Okonjo-Iweala points out.
She also says there are ‘bright spots’ in world trade, including in digital trade and green trade, which has tripled over the last two decades.
Okonjo-Iweala adds:
Yes we are worried, but trade is very resilient, and we are optimistic we can pick up on some bright spots.
Given current geopolitical fragilities, how can trade & investment remain as growth engines? DG @NOIweala sees some "bright spots" as services and digital trade are growing strongly and WTO members are close to finalizing an Investment Facilitation Agreement. #wef24 #WTOatWEF24 pic.twitter.com/wHYmUKtu0d
— WTO (@wto) January 18, 2024
Updated
Over at Ukraine House, a temporory pop-up in a shop on the Davos promenade, delegates have heard fresh warnings about the dangers of appeasing Russia.
Serhii Plokhii, director of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University, warned that the world leadership’s policy of appeasing Vladimir Putin led to the war in Ukraine:
Plokhii said:
“The road to this war is very much a story of appeasement. It’s the appeasement of the 1930s replayed in the 1990s and 2000s.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to fully realize this until a catastrophe of such a scale as this war happens, and you get very cautious about using the terms like ‘appeasement’ and parallels with the 1930s.
But having the largest war in Europe since World War II, I’m afraid that we don’t have any other choice but to look back and learn the lessons from the 1930s and 1940s.”
As covered earlier, David Cameron compared the current situation to the 1930s this morning.
Updated
Speaking of oil…Iraq is trying to lower its dependency on oil revenues, Davos heard this morning.
Speaking at WEF, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said Iraq has set a goal in a three-year budget to reduce dependence on oil revenue from 95% to 80%.
Updated
IEA sees slower oil demand growth
Away from Davos, the growth in global oil demand will fall by almost half in the year ahead due to weaker economic signals from China and other major economies, according to the International Energy Agency today.
The IEA’s influential monthly oil market report has found that world’s demand for oil would climb by 1.2m barrels per day this year, compared with an average of 2.3m barrels a day in 2023.
Meanwhile, the world’s oil supply is forecast to rise by 1.5m barrels a day to a new high of 103.5m b/d, fuelled by record-setting output from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.
The IEA said that if the Opec oil cartel abandons its policy to hold back oil supply from the market it could create a “substantial surplus” of crude in the market, which would likely weigh down market prices.
The global oil price rose slightly, to around $78.26 a barrel, following the IEA’s report which lifted the group’s oil demand growth forecasts by 180,000 barrels a day from its previous projection.
The oil price remains well below the 2023 average of $84.50 a barrel despite ongoing sanctions against Russian oil exports, the Israel-Gaza conflict and shipping disruptions through the Red Sea.
Updated
The Davos session on artificial intelligence wrapped up with a nod to the elephant in the room – Sam Altman’s shock dismissal from OpenAI last year, and his rehiring a few days later, after a staff revolt and support from major investor Microsoft.
Q: what did you learn from the most widely publiced boardroom scandal in recent decades?
Altman takes a moment to think what he can say about a tumultuous few days in which he was fired, then hired by Microsoft, then returned to OpenAI while most of the board who had sacked him departed.
He spreads his arms and declares:
At some point you just have to laugh, at some point it just gets so ridiculous.
One lesson, he says is that “you shouldn’t leave important but not urgent problems dangling”.
He says OpenAI knew its board was too small, and didn’t have the level of experience we needed [which was resolved through the deal to bring Altman back].
But more importantly, he says, as the world gets closer to AGI [Artificial general intelligence] the stakes, the stress, the level of tension is going to go up.
He explains:
“Every one step we take closer to very poweful AI, everyone’s character gets +10 crazy points.
It’s a very stressful thing, and it should be, because we’re trying to be responsible about very high stakes.”
Altman adds that he expects “more strange things”, as the world gets closer to very powerful AI.
So it’s verty important to have more preparation, more resilience, more time thinking about what can go wrong.
Altman adds that the most important he learned was the strength of his team.
Updated
Hunt: global AI standards must reflect liberal democratic values.
Jeremy Hunt tells Davos that Western goverments must talk to China about artificial intelligence, and that it is very important that global AI standards reflect liberal democratic values.
He says:
When it comes to setting global AI standards, it’s very important that they reflect liberal democratic values.
But, I think it is really important that we talk to countries like China.
Hunt points out that Sam Altman, alongside him on today’s panel, has a sign in his OpenAI office that says ‘no-one knows the future’.
But, Hunt says, “we do have agency over the future”, and that is why there is tension between the two (AI developers, and policymakers).
Hunt says we are “incredibly lucky” that people like Sam Altman are helping to transform humanity’s prospects for the future.
No-on in the room here in Davos today thinks the world would be better without AI, Hunt argues. “But we have choices”.
Hunt says:
The choice we need to make is how to harness it, so it is a force for good.
I actually think that means talking to countries like China.
One of the ways it would be a force for bad is if it just becmae a tool in a new geo-strategic superpower race, with much of the energy put into weapons rather than things that could transform our daily lives.
One way to avoid that is to have discussions with countries like China over common ground, Hunt says.
He adds that the benefits of AI should be spread throughout the world, and not just concentrated in advance economies.
Hunt says previous technological revolutions, such as the industrial revolution and computer revolution, succeeded where the benefits were spread evenly across society, not concentrated in small groups.
He adds:
Otherwise that will deepen some of the fractures that are already, in my view, taking us in the wrong direction.
Updated
Benioff: don’t want to see an AI Hiroshima
On the dangers of AI, Salesforce’s Marc Benioff tells Davos that our imaginations are filled with what happens when AI goes well and goes wrong.
Pointing to science-fiction films, Benioff cites HAL (in 2001: A Space Odyssey), Minority Report, and War Games
We don’t want to see “an AI Hiroshima”, Benioff warns WEF.
So we need to get our heads around regulation and safety now.
He points to the benefits from AI, saying customers will get better service while CEOs will get better profit margins.
But, we have to do it with the right values, he points out.
Sam Altman says OpenAI was surprised to be sued by the New York Times for copyright infringement last month.
Altman says he thought OpenAI were in productive negotiations with the NYT, and want to give the New York Times a lot of money in return for using its content.
Altman explains that OpenAI want to be able to supply links to external content to answer users’ questions, and to pay for that.
Reminder: The NYT’s case is that OpenAI used its news articles, investigations, opinion pieces, reviews and guides to build and train artificial intelligence products.
Altman reveals today that future AI models will be able to take smaller amounts of higher-quality data, and process it better.
After all, humans don’t need to read 2,000 biology books for a school biology course – one, or maybe 3, is enough.
OpenAI’s Sam Altman argues that it’s a good thing that people are nervous about AI.
We have our own nervousness, he admits.
He says Ai developers need to get input from society about what the values of the system should be.
It is important to put these systems into people hands, so we can make the necessary course corrections, Altman adds.
Hunt suggests AI could improve public services, lead to tax cuts
Jeremy Hunt tells Davos that he favours “light touch” regulation of artificial intelligence, as it is at such an early stage.
Otherwise, you risk stopping the golden goose growing, he warns.
He gives an example of AI’s fallibility – saying he asked an AI system “Is Jeremy Hunt a good chancellor”, and was told that he wasn’t the chancellor at all.
Despite these flaws, Hunt says we can all do very well out of AI.
And he suggests that artificial intelligence can solve some of the big problems we face.
For example, when the next pandemic happens, Hunt says, we don’t want to have to wait a year for a vaccine. If AI can shrink the timescale to develop and deploy the next vaccine from a year to a month, is a big step forward.
Hunt adds there is a lot of anger around the world about tax
If AI can transform public services, and lead to more efficient public services requiring less tax, that is a big win, Hunt says.
Benioff: AI regulation mustn't be another fucking shit show
Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, says we must “pass over the bridge of trust” regarding AI.
He says the UK’s AI safety summit last year was “amazing actually,” as it brought so many key players together.
On the capabilities of AI, Benioff cautions that “We’re at a threshold moment, but we’re not properly there yet.”
And on the issue of regulation, Benioff says we must learn from the failure to regulate social media, which he says has been “a fucking shit show” over the last decade.
“Regulation of social media was a fucking shit show … do we want the same thing to happen in the case of AI?” Pretty much the broad consensus this year on the magic mountain … but are we moving nearly fast enough? @Benioff @sama at @wef #Davos this morning. pic.twitter.com/uKrDjoxtXQ
— Robert Muggah (@robmuggah) January 18, 2024
want a good partnershp
Q: What is the future for humans in an AI world?
OpenAI’s Sam Altman replies that AI mean we all have access to a lot more capability, and we will make decisions about what will happen in the world.
He explains that humans care what other people think. He reminds Davos that chess was one of the first victims of AI when Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov.
At the time, Altman says, people said this was the end of chess.
But today, chess has never been more popular than it is now. While no-one, or hardly anyone, wants to watch two AI chess players play each other.
But he concedes that while we have seen many technological breakthroughs before, it does feel different this time. General-purpose cognition feels different, Altman adds.
Sam Altman begins by telling Davos that artificial intelligence systems are currently at extremely limited levels of ability – much lower than we’ll get later this year, yet alone future years, he says tantalisingly.
Altman explains that the OpenAI-style of AI is good at some things, but not life or death situations.
It’s sometimes wrong and sometimes right, so you don’t want it to drive your car, but you’re happy to use it to brainstorm ideas, he explains.
Altman says people have found ways to make OpenAI’s ChatGPT super-useful.
And if they know that the output could be totally wrong, that’s OK.
It’s arguably more dangerous if it’s right 99.999% of time, because people would let their guard down.
Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt now on stage at Davos with Sam Altman and others discussing AI #WEF24 pic.twitter.com/J6TuUTtagD
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) January 18, 2024
Next up…. a panel on Technology in a Turbulent World, which will look at the issue of artificial intelligence.
Jeremy Hunt, the UK chancellor, takes his seat, along with Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, Marc Benioff, chair and CEO of Salesforce, Julie Sweet, Chair and CEO of Accenture, and
Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer.
Israel president calls on international community to reject genocide claim
Israel’s president has told the World Economic Forum that it is “outrageous” that South Africa has brought a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, over its conduct in the Gaza war.
Isaac Herzog tells delegates here in Davos that South Africa “basically support the barbarism we have seen on October 7”, which he says includes supporting sexual and gender-based violence.
Herzog declares it is “a game of hypocrisy” that South Africa is using the convention against genocide, which was enacted following the Holocaust in the second world war, carried out against the Jewish people.
The state of Israel is defending itself within international law, he insists.
Herzog says he hopes Israel’s case will be heard “loud and clear”
And he calls on the international community to reject the genocide claim against Israel.
We are a peace loving nation, Herzog continues, saying Israelis are striving for peace
We care for our neighbours, but we are not prepared to be attacked, he adds.
Q: Once the Israel-Hamas war is over, how could a two state solution be reached?
President Herzog says Hamas has a jihadist ideology, and wants to eliminate Israel.
Israel may have been naive enough to think Hamas could change, he suggests.
He says Israelis have several questions, including: are they being offered real safety, what will it be, and will it actually guarantee safety for their people.
He adds that Israel’s lost faith in the peace process in the past, because they could see that terror is being glorified by our neighbours.
Herzog adds that normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia is the key to reaching an exit from the war, and moving into a new horizon.
On the issue of supplies into Gaza, Herzog says the international community has not sent the full 400 humanitarian trucks a day that Israel can screen.
[earlier this week, aid officials in Gaza warned that “pockets of famine” already exist in the territory, due to a lack of humanitarian supplies].
He is praying that medicine which are being sent into Gaza via the Qatari-French deal will reach the hostages.
Updated
President Herzog points out that the Houthis are raising the cost of living for everyone, through the attacks on vessels in the Red Sea that have forced ships to reroute.
Q: what is your message to Palestinians who don’t support Hamas?
President Herzog says he has been calling for peace with Israel’s neighbours for years.
But terror cannot be accepted; it has to be totally stopped and made out of the question.
He says people who support Hamas are supporting barbaric terror.
He then talks about the Hamas infrastructure found in shops, living rooms, bedrooms, and schools in Gaza.
We care, we care, it is painful for us that our neighbours are suffering so much.
But they are entrenched in a network of terror, which Israel is determined to remove.
He says he is not shying away from the human tragedy in Gaza, but Israel needs to defend itself from terror.
There is an “empire of evil” eminating from Tehran, Israel’s president Isaac Herzog warns Davos.
Billions of dollars are being spent to destabilise the stability of the world, he says, with Iran funding proxies all around the region, to undermine any peace process.
They must be faced by a very strong coalition, he adds.
Herzog also says he wants a better future for the Palestinians who are our neighbours.
But if you speak to Israeli citizens, he says, they cannot think about the peace agreement because everyone wants to know if they can be promised security.
Every Israeli wants to know they won’t be attacked from the north, south or east, Herzog says.
Updated
President Isaac Herzog begins by telling Davos delegates that Israel’s world was shattered on 7 October by the Hamas attacks.
He explains Israeli’s suffered atrocities including rapes, the chopping of heads, the burning of families.
And he cites the example of Kfir Bibas, who turns 1 in Hamas captivity today after he, his four-year-old brother Ariel and parents Yarden and Shiri Bibas were taken hostage.
Herzog says he calls on those at Davos, and indeed the “entire universe” to work endlessly to release all the hostages who are still held.
The oldest hostage is 85 year old, he adds, and many are people of peace.
Israeli president Herzog in Davos with a photo of Kfir Bibas, a 1 year old Israeli baby held hostage by Hamas in Gaza pic.twitter.com/Xmp5JTo6Sw
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) January 18, 2024
Next up, Israel’s president Isaac Herzog has arrived on stage for a conversation
WEF’s founder Klaus Schwab welcomes him, pointing out that this is a very critical time for Israel and the Middle East, and credits Herzog with delivering “positive change for your country”.
Updated
Elsewhere in Davos this morning, the boss of Barclays has said he is “very optimistic” about the UK.
C.S. Venkatakrishnan told CNBC that he thinks the UK consumer is in “very decent shape”, helped by the drop in energy prices from recent highs.
Venkatakrishnan said:
Growth is not great, but growth is fine. It’s not as strong as the United States.
But you know, there’s so many institutional advantages in the UK, and it’s the home of so much innovation, so much technology.
Venkatakrishnan also argued that political risk in the UK is “far less than it’s ever been”, citing Rachel Reeves’ visit to Davos this week.
He added:
This election, whenever it comes, is not Margaret Thatcher versus James Callaghan [as in 1979].
The difference in economic policies between the two, and they’re both striving to say so, is fairly minimal.
Rubenstein: Trump probably not as big a Ukraine supporter as we'd like
David Rubenstein, co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, the asset management firm, is also on this morning’s panel.
He’s asked whether American support could waver come November, the month of the presidential election.
Rubenstein replies that “it’s obviously difficult situation” in the United States because of the politics of this situation.
We all know that if President Trump were to be reelected, he is probably not as big a supporter of Ukraine as all of us would wish.
But, adds that Rubenstein the business community and others in the United States could influence Trump by putting some pressure on him.
So we shouldn’t view this as a lost cause, nor view it as a certainty that Trump will get elected, Rubenstein adds.
Canada’s finance minister Chrystia Freeland tells the Ukraine breakfast that the moral, political and legal case for using the frozen Russian central bank reserves for Ukrainian reconstruction “is strong”.
But she cautions…
We really recognise that this has to be something that allies do together, and that allies have to come to their own conclusions.
Davos - Duda, Cameron, Kuleba, Freeland, pretty clear there is agreement now on confiscating the $300bn+ in immobilised Russian assets and transfer to Ukraine. It is going to happen. G7 at end of Feb will sign off on it. Germany will have to roll-over.
— Timothy Ash (@tashecon) January 18, 2024
Freeland says Canada thinks it has $134 of frozen Russian funds – probably a sign that the Russian didn’t think Canada was a welcome place for their money.
“That’s not a bad thing, from our point of view,” she adds.
Freeland also warns that Putin thinks he’s going to win, because he believes that dictatorship is stronger than democracy.
I think democracy can win, I think democracy is better.
Lord Cameron is then asked about Ukraine’s call for European defence capabilities to be aligned – is that realistic?
Cameron says he thinks it is, but it’s definitely the area where the greatest amount of attention is needed.
He says countries such as Britain, France and Poland have been going through their inventories of weapons, to find what they can give to Ukraine, and also bought up a huge amount of legacy area era Soviet equipment from around the world to resupply the Ukrainians.
Coordinating production with multi-year contracts is a clear demonstration that “we’re in this for the long term”, Cameron adds, and is one of the most important outcomes from meetings such as WEF.
Cameron also calls for the sanctions put in place against Russian individuals and entities to be properly policed. Just putting sanctions in place isn’t enough.
He says:
We’ve got to make sure that third countries aren’t going round the sanctions.
Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, tells this morning’s Ukraine breakfast that Ukraine has been encouraged and reassured by the reception that president Zelenskiy received in Davos this week.
Asked what Ukraine most needs, Kuleba says there are two things – air defence, and the use of Russia’s frozen assets.
Air defence means planes, missiles, interceptors and radio electronics, he says.
And if Ukraine can protect its skies, and throw Russia out of them, it will be in a much stronger position.
Kuleba also pushes for Ukraine’s supports to build better cooperation between their defence industries, to ensure the sustainability of supplies.
On the frozen assets, he says Russia must pay for the damage in Ukraine, and doesn’t buy the arguments that there are legal constraints within financial regulations that prevent them being used.
The assets frozen in only three countries, Britain, Luxembourg and Switzerland, would fund the repair of all infrastructure damage in Ukraine, such as airports, bridges. and roads, Kuleba says.
If you also take the 180bn euros of Russian assets frozen in the Euroclear system in Belgium, that would fund a wider recovery effort and repair hospitals and schools,
Lord Cameron adds that Ukrainians are incredibly brave and incredibly united.
He reveals that someone said the other day that president Zelensky’s approval rating has slipped from 90% to 80%.
Cameron jokes that he used to dream about 40%, never mind 80%, when he was prime minister.
David Cameron: This is like the 1930s
Next up, Lord Cameron, who says the Ukraine war is the “struggle of our generation”.
This is like being a foreign minister or a prime minister in the 1930s, he tells this morning’s Stand With Ukraine? event. And we know from those days that if you appease aggression, you get more of it, he points out.
Britain is “right behind Ukrainians in this struggle for as long as it takes”, Cameron insists.
He reminds us that Rishi Sunak has pledged £2.5bn of British support for the next year, and urges colleagues in America and in the European Union to bring forwards their own, larger packages.
Cameron’s message to American colleagues is that they have spend 10% of their defence budget, and achieved a 50% destruction of Russia’s pre-war military equipment without the loss of a single American life.
That is an amazing investment, Cameron adds.
He also repeats a point he made yesterday – if you zoom out, the war has been a strategic disaster for Putin, who has lost half the territory he took in the invasion two years ago.
Cameron says:
He’s lost half his military equipment. He’s had 300,000 casualties, [he’s seen] NATO get bigger and stronger with the addition of two highly capable countries in Finland and Sweden. He’s lost 20% of his Black Sea Fleet to a country that only has a relatively limited navy.
Updated
Poland’s president Duda then urges world leaders not to become fatigued over the Ukraine war.
He warns about a “coalition of evil” which is prepared to take risks to run the global order.
Duda says that if Putin prevails in Ukraine, it would send a clear signal to the whole of the world, and encourage his supporters to ramp up actions against the Western world.
Ukranians must decide their own future, he continues – no-one else can decide it.
And the conflict will only end with Moscow’s full retreat. They are the aggressor, who attacked an independent and sovereign country, Duda continues.
And if Russia were to win, Putin would not stop with Ukraine, Duda fears.
Other countries, such as in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, might be become Russia’s next victim, he warns.
Duda: Putin decided to set the world in fire
Andrzej Duda, the president of Poland, says that Vladlimir Putin has decided to “set the world on fire”.
Duda warns the Ukrainian breakfast event that:
I’m absolutely sure that we can say, 30 years after the Soviet Union collapsed, that now we are witnessing the rebirth of Russian imperialism in its bloodthirsty version.
Without any doubts, Putin decided to set the world in fire.
Duda reminds us that we are still witnessing the biggest armed conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War.
And he urges Davos delegates to visit an exhibition here, documenting Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Introduction: 2024 wil be 'moment of truth' for Ukraine
Good morning from Davos, where world leaders, business chiefs and other members of the global elite continue to attend the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting.
We start with Ukraine this morning, as UK foreign secretary David Cameron is attending the annual Ukrainian Breakfast discussion here.
The topic: Stand With Ukraine?
The event, which is also being attended by Poland’s president Andrzej Duda, is hosted by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, and international investment advisory group EastOne.
Victor Pinchuk, the Ukrainian businessman and philanthropist, opens the event, warning that 2024 will be the “moment of truth” for Ukraine.
Pinchuk tells an audience of Davos delegates here that Ukraine’s international partners have provided a lot of support; Ukrainians are so grateful for this and we will never forget this, he says.
Bu, he warns, there is a difficult truth:
In war it does not matter if you did a lot. It matters only if you did enough.
Pinchuk says that without more support, Ukraine will have too little weapons to win.
Time is running out, he says, and we are at the critical point.
Pinchuk says 2022 was the year in which eveyone underestimated Ukraine. in 2023, everyone underestimated the aggressor. 2024 will be the moment of truth, he insists.
More to follow….
Also coming up today
UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also attending WEF today; he’ll be speaking on a panel about ‘technology in a turbulent world’.
The Treasury say Hunt will be championing British excellence in science and technology, and will “bang the drum on investment” into the UK.
Hunt says:
“I’ll be in Davos to tell the world that Britain, a nation of great innovation, is on the up and open for business.
“We boast some of the best and brightest businesses in sectors of the future like digital technology and life sciences. It’s these areas of strength that are going to drive growth across the UK economy in years to come.”
But, Hunt’s trip could be overshadowed by fears back home that Tata Steel will confirm plans to shut down much of its production at the Port Talbot steelworks during a crunch meeting with trade unions,
The Middle East conflict will also feature here in Davos, with Israel’s president Isaac Herzog and Iraq’s president Mohammed Shyaa Al Sudani both due to address delegates.
The agenda
7.30am CET/6.30am BST: Ukrainian Breakfast discussion, including Poland’s president Andrzej Duda, and UK foreign secretary David Cameron.
10am CET / 9am BST: A Conversation with Isaac Herzog, President of Israel
10.30am CET / 9.30am BST: A Conversation With Mohammed Shyaa Al Sudani, Prime Minister of Iraq
11am CET / 10am GMT: Technology in a Turbulent World, with Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, Marc Benioff, chair and CEO of Salesforce, Julie Sweet, chair and CEO of Accenture, Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer
3pm CET / 2pm GMT: Russia: What Next? With European Commission’s Valdis Dombrovskis, Radoslaw Tomasz Sikorski, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luminița-Teodora Odobescu, Romania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithunania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chris Miller, Associate Professor, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
3pm CET: A Conversation with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece
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