Closing summary
The main Davos events over for the day (delegates are either attending evening events, or enjoying some Chinese food and culture at Darian Night inside the congress hall).
So it’s tine to wrap up.
The first day at the World Economic Forum has been dominated by Ukraine, with president Volodymyr Zelenskiy urging ed the West to step up its support for Kyiv to ensure that Moscow did not succeed in its war.
Zelenskiy also met with a series of world leaders, and scores of CEOs here in Davos, as he looked to rally support for Ukraine.
He was also backed by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who said Western governments cannot afford to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and money if it wants Kyiv to succeed in its war against Russia.
Von der Leyen told Davos:
“Ukraine can prevail in this war but we must continue to empower their resistance.”
China’s premier, Li Qiang, also addressed the WEF, telling attendees that the Chinese economy was open for business .
Li called for tighter multilateral coordination of macroeconomic policy, international cooperation on green development and better North-South cooperation.
Outside the WEF Congress Hall, former UK prime minister Theresa May and Princess Eugenie warned that policymakers are failing to tackle modern slavery.
We’ll be back in the morning…when shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will be pitching Labour as the party of wealth creation…
Labour is now the party of wealth creation. https://t.co/zAVkY5vtra
— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) January 16, 2024
President Zelenskiy continues to look to rally support at Davos:
I met with the Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam Pham Minh Chinh.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 16, 2024
I thanked Viet Nam for its support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as humanitarian assistance.
We noted the importance of intensifying our relations based on the… pic.twitter.com/lx266ihzwX
Elsewhere in Davos today, the Global CEO of Fujitsu, Takahito Tokita, has apologised for the Post Office scandal – involving its dangerously flawed IT system:
EXCLUSIVE
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) January 16, 2024
BBC News hunts down the Global CEO of Fujitsu Takahito Tokita ambling through Davos who apologises on Post Office scandal.
‘This is a big issue, which Fujitsu takes very seriously,’ Mr Tokita said.
Will you apologise? ‘Yes, of course. Fujitsu has apologised for the… pic.twitter.com/Wrs2B5Pd2z
Sam Altman also sounded unconcerned about the upcoming US presidential election this November, saying:
“I believe that America’s going to be fine no matter what happens in this election.”
Altman reportedly has a net worth of $500m, which probably provides some comfort when digesting the implications of the Iowa caucus, or the latest opinion polls.
OpenAI’s Sam Altman has told an audience at Davos today that an energy breakthrough is necessary for future artificial intelligence, which will consume vastly more power than people have expected.
Speaking at a Bloomberg event on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Altman said the silver lining is that more climate-friendly sources of energy, particularly nuclear fusion or cheaper solar power and storage, are the way forward for AI.
He said:
“There’s no way to get there without a breakthrough.
“It motivates us to go invest more in fusion.”
Altman added that he wished the world would embrace nuclear fission as an energy source as well.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has continued to meet with world leaders today, including the presidents of Rwanda and Singapore:
First-ever meeting with Rwandan President @PaulKagame.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 16, 2024
I informed President Kagame of the Peace Formula. The voice of African states is important to putting it into action.
Rwanda's representative attended the fourth Peace Formula meeting of advisors. This send an important… pic.twitter.com/KjBUtQ6r1n
First meeting with Singapore's President Tharman Shanmugaratnam.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 16, 2024
I am grateful to Singapore for its humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, as well as its support for sanctions and UN resolutions.
I invited Singapore to join the Peace Formula and the Global Peace Summit… pic.twitter.com/Q2BueizCjb
Full story: Zelenskiy tells Davos chiefs: ‘Strengthen our economy, we will strengthen your security’
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has made an impassioned plea for international support for his country’s war against Russia, insisting that Vladimir Putin must live to regret starting the conflict almost two years ago.
In a speech that received a standing ovation from the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Ukrainian president said the Putin had stolen 13 years of peace and would only respond to military defeat.
“If anybody thinks this is just about Ukraine they are fundamentally mistaken,” Zelenskiy said, after a meeting in Davos with 70 chief executives and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.
Dressed in his trademark black jumper, Zelenskiy said the Russian leader was spurred on to take military action by warnings to Ukraine not to escalate a conflict that began with the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
More here:
NATO have released details of secretary general Jens Stoltenberg’s work at Davos today.
They say:
While acknowledging that the battlefield situation is “extremely difficult”, with the Russians “now pushing on many frontlines”, Mr Stoltenberg underlined that “there is also cause for optimism”.
He pointed to Ukraine’s impressive achievements in liberating territory; opening a corridor for grain export in the Black Sea; and overall its survival as a sovereign, independent nation. Conversely, he said that “Russia has lost what they wanted to achieve with the war, and that was to control Ukraine”; Ukrainians are now firmly oriented to the West, aspiring for membership in NATO and the European Union.
The Secretary General also stressed that “support for Ukraine is not charity; it’s an investment in our own security”. Pointing to the increasingly global nature of security, Mr Stoltenberg noted that close NATO partners Japan and South Korea are also concerned about Russia’s war against Ukraine, as a victory for President Putin would increase the likelihood of Beijing using force elsewhere.
Outside the WEF congress centre, there are a blizzard of pop-up venues where organisations and major corporations have converted Davos shops into their own domains for this week.
One of them is Ukraine House, which is hosting a project called the Decide Your Tomorrow project, to drum up and maintain support for Ukraine.
They held a debate to discuss the question of “What if Ukraine Loses?”…. and heard that the consequences would be severe, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
Niall Ferguson, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, warned:
We need to make it clear what the dire consequences of a Russian victory would mean, else US interest will begin to wane. If the US stops sending financial and military commitments then Western Europe will follow.”
Ferguson also shared his opinion on what a victory might look like for Russia’s Vladimir Putin:
“It would be a victory for Putin even if Ukraine retained the majority of its 1991 territory, but was economically unable to survive or to prosper [which would signal] a failure of the Western alliance that was hastily formed in 2022.”
This would also be a failure of US leadership, said Ferguson, adding:
“We cannot allow Ukraine to lose this war. We cannot allow Putin to claim victory, because financial, economic and moral costs to us will be unacceptably high.”
Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon has a lot to juggle this week. Not only is he Davos-bound, but he’ll have to spin a positive tale despite revealing the bank’s lowest annual profits since 2019.
The Wall Street lender today revealed a 24% drop in full-year profits for 2023, tumbling to $8.5bn (£6.7bn ) from $11.bn a year earlier. That was due in part to a $1bn worth of write downs on its consumer business, and the sale of GreenSky, which provided loans for home improvements.
While its equities division managed to eke out a 5% jump in revenues by year-end, thanks to a market rebound, a sluggish year for dealmaking meant Goldman’s investment bank – known as its global banking and markets division – suffered an 8% drop in revenues.
But Solomon is already trying to turn attention to the year ahead. He said in a statement:
“This was a year of execution for Goldman Sachs. With everything we achieved in 2023 coupled with our clear and simplified strategy, we have a much stronger platform for 2024.
Our strategic objectives underscore our relentless commitment to serve our clients with excellence, further strengthen our leading client franchise and continue to deliver for shareholders.”
Goldman is the last of the major US banks to report full year earnings, with most having revealed the state of their finances last week.
On Friday, JP Morgan, America’s largest bank, reported record full-year profits, which rose 32% to $49.6bn thanks to higher interest rates and its acquisition of First Republic, one of the regional banks that failed last year.
Citi, meanwhile, made headlines after revealing plans to cut 20,000 of its 39,000 global staff by the end of 2026 as part of a major restructuring programme. It came as full year profits tumbled 38% per cent to $9.2bn.
Zelenskiy: Strengthen our economy and we willl strengthen your security.
Just time for one more question….
Q: You had 70 global CEOs in a room this morning (full details here) – what can we do to help you?
Our main strength is our people, Volodymyr Zelenskiy replies, who have proved they are smart, talented, modern, smart-witted and brave.
He says:
Only our people and your investments can rebuild a resilient economy.
New investments, provided with transparency, will create new employment opportunities and allow our people to come back from abroad.
And he ends with a sales pitch:
Strengthen our economy and we willl strengthen your security.
The hall then rises to its feet for a standing ovation – a rare tribute at Davos, although Zelenskiy also received one last year when he gave a speech by video conference (Nelson Mandela got on too!).
Volodymyr Zelelskiy then explains that there must be justice, rather than revenge against Russia.
The Ukrainian people will never forgive Putin, and the people who committed this terrorism, who took time from our children who were deprived of their childhood, he says.
There must be accountability, and consequences, he says.
And he rejects the suggestion that time is on the Russian president’s side. Neither Putin, nor his children or grandchildren, will have rest, Zelenskiy says.
Onto questions:
Q: How long will the Russian people allow Putin to continue this war?
Switching to Ukrainian, Zelenskiy says it depends how long the Russian people are prepared to be deaf, to not hear or see anything, and pretend everything is all right
That’s a question for the people of the Russian Federation, whether they are cabable of changing themselves, not for me, Zelenskiy says, adding;
I don’t believe Putin is capable of changing, because only humans can do that.
Zelenskiy tells the packed out Congress Hall at Davos that Ukraine needs their help for the reconstruction effort.
“Each of you can be even more succesful with Ukraine”
He adds that he has held discussions with the president of Switzerland about holding a global peace summit.
Peace must win, this must be the answer, he concludes, cueing a second warm round of applause.
This year must be decisive, Volodymyr Zelenskiy insists.
And he questions whether “freezing the war in Ukraine” would actually end the conflict.
After 2014, there were attemps to freeze the war in Donbas, Zelenskiy says.
But that didn’t sate Russia’s appetite, saying:
Putin is a predator who is not satisfied by frozen products.
We have to defend ourselves, he continues. We can beat him on the ground, we have proved it, he adds.
Zelenskiy then says it was a mistake to tell Ukraine not to escalate the conflict with Russia.
He argues that Russia was encouraged to take military action by the warnings to Ukraine not to escalate.
Because of ‘don’t escalate’, lives were lost, Zelenskiy says.
He also points out that there were concerns about pushing back in the Black Sea, but that has led to 16 million tonnes of cargo has been transported from Ukraine’s ports.
How can you be happy with sanctions against Russia if they don’t prevent missile prroduction, he adds, saying that every missile launched contains components from Ukraine’s allies.
Zelenskiy insists that, of course, he is grateful for each package of support.
But he says Putin must be made to regret the invasion of Ukraine, explaining:
“The more money Putin and his allies lose, the more he will regret this war….
We need to finally dispell the illusion that global unity is weaker than one man’s hatred.”
Updated
Zelenskiy: Putin has stolen 13 years of peace
Zelenskiy begins by launching a blistering condemnation of Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
He tells Davos that the full-scale war in Europe has been running for almost two years, but it is almost 10 years since Crimea was annexed by Russia.
Russia has also been interfering in African countries for many years, he adds, while the Syrian war is still ongoing, for almost 13 years.
One man has stolen at least 13 years of peace, replacing them with pain, pain, pain and crisis that impact the entire world.
Putin is trying to normalise what should have ended in the 20th century, Zelenskiy continues. That means mass deportations, cities razed to ground, and the feeling that war will never end, he explains.
Zelenskiy continues by warning that Putin will not change, adding that “the madness that resides in this man’s head” must not prevail.
And Zelenskiy then touches on the risk that the conflict spreads further, asking which European nation today can provide a combat-ready army in comparison with Ukraine’s, holding back Russia.
It is better to put an end to Putin and his war strategy now, he adds.
The Congress Hall here in Davos has filled up, with delegates eager to hear from Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The Ukrainian president walks in, to a warm round of applause.
WEF founder Klaus Schwab introduces Zelenskiy, saying:
The brutal aggression on the 24th of February 2022 reminded us that we cannot have global prosperity without peace and security.
Ukraine still stands, its people stand, and fight on a daily basis to protect the independence of their homeland, Schwab adds, hailing Ukraine’s incredible resilience.
Ukraine is firmly on the path of European integration, Schwab adds.
Bloomberg have a video clip of Volodymyr Zelenskiy meeting with business leaders today, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon, Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman and Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio.
Dimon introduced himself to Zelenskiy thus:
“I’m Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan Chase. God bless you.”
“God bless you"
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) January 16, 2024
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon wishes Volodymyr Zelenskiy well as they meet at Davos, where the Ukrainian president is working to bolster international support https://t.co/W0Kg9u89xm pic.twitter.com/pMJgLgcnTP
I think this is a second meeting, following the one which Senator Chris Coons of Delaware attended here in the congress centre.
Zelenskiy meets business leaders at Davos
The mood in the room here where Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy met with business leaders this morning was “upbeat, determined, positive,” US senator for Delaware, Chris Coons, tells us.
Coons was one of an estimated 50 or more people who met with Ukraine’s leader today, as Zelenskiy pressed attendees at Davos for their support in the ongoing war with Russia.
Coons, who sports a badge with both the US and Ukrainian flags linked, explains that the meeting went “very well, it was very encouraging”, and that it was an expression of business and national support for Ukraine.
Zelenskiy gave us an update on the war with Russia, and the determination of the Ukrainian people,” Coons explains, adding:
“He urged that we remain as determined as the Ukranian people and that we see this through.”
There were a number of bankers in the room (including Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan), and also the head of fertilizer giant Yara, Coons tells us.
Senator Coons adds that Youtube’s CEO talked about the efforts they have made to take down Russian disinformation and malign content and to make sure that students are able to learn, businesses can communicate, and government can function.
Ursula von der Leyen made “forceful remarks” about her six visits to Kviv during the war, how impressed she is with their reform movements to combat corruption, to improve transparency to create a good business environment.
Attendees also heard from Jens Stoltenburg, the head of Nato, about about the status of the war, and some of the crucial progress in the Black Sea, the challenges of the spring and summer offensive.
Stoltenburg encouraged everyone to remain committed and determined, Coons says.
Penny Pritzker, the US special representative for Ukraine economic recovery, told the meeting about how she recently took a group of US business representatives to Kyiv to see for themselves the possibilities.
Coons, who sat next to Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck, was also complimentary about Ukraine, telling us:
I spoke about how in my own manufacturing business, we used to say ‘hire for attitude, train for skill’.
The Ukrainian people have shown they have both – ferocious determination, a great attitude, a work ethic and determination, and very good skills, technical ability and agility, engineering skills, the capacity to find a way even when desperately outgunned and outmanned by a much bigger force.
That’s a great place to invest.
I spoke about the Marshall Plan, and how it wasn’t charity, it was in America’s own security and economic interest.
One European banker pointed out that while the Marshall Plan was a great thing, it took America several years after the end of the war to actually offer the help.
Coons argues the process can start even before the war is over, in parts of the country less affected by the conflict which are stable and secure.
He says:
Here we need to begin now, we need to now wait until it is fully, finally over?
On funding, Coons told the meeting with confidence that United States will deliver the $61bn which is in President Biden’s supplemental funding request.
Coons, a key Biden ally, tells us:
“There will be a lot of disagreement, there will be a lot of sturm und drang, a lof of noise, but I am confident that within a few weeks it will pass.”
Von der Leyen told the meeting that she is confident the 50bn euros from the EU for development for the next four years will also pass.
Concerns that the Middle East could push Ukraine off the geopolitical agenda were also referenced in the meeting, Coons says.
But he is confident that there is support on both sides of the Senate to defend and support Ukraine.
He adds that US financial support has helped Ukraine’s agricultural sector, and the wider economy, citing its remarkable growth this year.
It’s grown almost 5% this year, in the middle of a war, a punishing war, where you’ve got huge amounts of land now unfarmable, filled with mines and unexploded ordinance, 10s of thousands of men who should be at work on the front lines, and with millions of people having left the country.
Updated
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has now held a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, here in Davos:
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Andriy Yermak arrive for the meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken . Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters
Von der Leyen warns West against slowing support for Ukraine
Back in the Congress Hall here, Ursula von der Leyen warned the West not to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and money if it wants Kyiv to succeed in its war against Russia.
Von der Leyen – who took part in Ukraine’s meeting with business chiefs this morning – told delegates:
“Ukraine can prevail in this war but we must continue to empower their resistance.
“Ukrainians need predictable financing throughout 2024 and beyond. They need a sufficient and sustained supply of weapons to defend Ukraine and regain its rightful territory.”
Updated
Theresa May and Princess Eugenie warn of modern slavery dangers
Governments are failing to properly tackle the scourge of slavery and human trafficking even as it increases, former UK prime minister Theresa May has warned, here in Davos on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
Climate change, wars and the Covid-19 pandemic have contributed to the problem, she said.
“We’ve seen in recent years the number people in slavery increasing around the world.
“Conflict, the pandemic, the impact of climate change increase vulnerability to it.
At the same time governments are taking their attention off it.”
May, who heads the Global Commission on Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking, was speaking at an event on modern slavery at Davos alongside Princess Eugenie, who co-founded The Anti-Slavery Collective in 2017.
“Guns and drugs can be only trafficked once but human beings are trafficked again and again and again,” said Eugenie.
“For them it happens every day and minute.”
May said companies “need to really pay attention to supply chains” and government need to set tighter laws.
Updated
Von der Leyen: Russia is failing in Ukraine war
On Ukraine, Ursule von der Leyen says Russia is failing on its strategic goals.
Moscow has lost half of its military capabilities, and been driven out of half the territory it captured.
Ukraine has pushed back Russia’s Black Sea fleet, and begun supplying grain to the world again, she says.
It has been an economic failure too; Western sanctions mean Russia is now dependent on China.
It has also been a diplomatic failure, with Finland joining NATO, and Ukraine closer than ever in its path to joining the European Union, von der Leyen says.
But Ukraine needs more help – financing in 2024 and beyond, weapons supplies for the war, and to deter future action by Russia.
Next up, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.
She starts by reminding Davos delegates that last week’s WEF global risks report showed that misinformation and disinformation are biggest short-term risks.
These risks are limiting leaders’ ability to tackle the big global challenges we are facing, von der Leyen warns.
She says that Europe can and must take the lead in shaping the global response to falling trust, and that the private sector had a crucial role to play.
This will be a crucial year for trust in information, she adds, as democracies across the world head to the polls, in elections that will affect half the global population.
Li: China believes AI must do good for humanity
Onto questions
Q: what role will China play in artificial intelligence?
Li says artificial intelligence is a catchphrase, and that people love generative AI such as ChatGPT – but there is also suprise and some fear in some quarters about what it can do.
This technology seems omnipitant, he says, but people are taking time to get used to it.
He then describes AI as a double-edged sword.
If applied well, it can do good and improve human civilisation, and give great impetus to the scientific revolution.
But it also poses risks to security and to our ethics.
He tells delegates:
China believes that technology must serve the common good of humanity.
It must do good, and the same applies to artificial intelligence.
Li then explains that AI must be people-centred. People must control the machines, rather than the machines controlling us.
Thus, policymakers must facilitate good AI with appropriate governance.
Second, AI must be inclusive and beneficial for all, not just a small group of people.
Therefore, it is essential that countries work together and coordinate together, so they can share benefits together.
He adds that the interest of developing countries should be prioritised, to close the technology gap with other countries.
Premier Li then pledges that China will open its door still wider to the world.
He tells business chiefs in the audience here that choosing to invest in the Chinese market is not a risk, but actually an opportunity.
He says China is working on policies to address concerns about cross-border data flows, and will take active steps to address reasonable concerns of the global business community.
Li tells Davos that China’s demographic dividend is turning into talent dividend, and teh country will implement new technologies (such as the blockchain, and cloud computing) at a faster pace.
Delivering modernisation to 1.4 billion people will be a remarkable achievement in human history, he points out, pledging that China will play a key role in boosting aggregate global demand.
Li: China grew 5.2% last year
The world economic recovery requires strong underpinnings, Li points out.
And on the challenge of assessing China’s economy, he compares it to viewing the Alps – you need to step back and view it from a distance, to get the full picture.
Li says the Chinese economy is making steady progress, and will continue to provide a strong impetus for the world economy.
Over the years, China’s contribution to world economic growth has remained at around 30%. The economy rebounded last year and moved upward, with estimated growth of 5.2%, he reveals.
Pointedly, Li adds that China didnt resort to massive stimulus, and focused on promoting development.
Updated
Li: China's five-point plan to rebuild trust
China’s premier Li Qiang tells Davos he has a five-point plan to rebuild trust.
1) Strenthen macroeconomic policy coordination, to create better synergy and thus faster growth.
He warns that because economies are more linekd today, there are more spillover effects when. So if there are “fragmented responses” to crises, the world economy will become more fragile.
2) strengthen international industrial specialisation and cooperation, to keep supply chains “stable and smooth”.
He cites figures showing that 5,400 new discriminationary trade measures were introduced from 2020 to 2023, nearly doubling the number before the pandemic.
3:) enhance cooperation in innovation.
He says countries should work together for an open, just and non-discriminationary environment for science and technology, to let innovation thrive in an open environment
4) Strengthern cooperationon green development, to better tackle climate change.
He criticises the practice of erecting barriers to green trade, so some green technology cannot flow freely.
[Li may be thinking of the European Union’s push for restrictions on the import of green technologies from China]
Li argues countries must work together for a complete transiation to green economy
5) strenthen north-south and south-south cooperation, to build a more inclusive world economy.
He warns that issues such as the tech divide have become more acute in recent years.
True development is development for all, Li says, adding the the world must fully implement the UN’s 2030 agenda for sustainable development, and bridge development gaps.
Summing up, Li adds that the best way to earn trust is to be a better version of ourselves.
Li Qiang addresses Davos
Li Qiang, premier of the People’s Republic of China, is addressing Davos now,
Li is introduced by WEF founder Klaus Schwab, who says Li had an illustrious career in public service, rising up through the ranks to run three of China’s most economically vigorous regions.
Schwab adds that Li is seen as a pro-business and pro-reform leader.
Li then takes to the stage here in the Congress Hall.
Li says the theme of this year’s WEF meeting, “rebuilding trust”, will strike a chord with many people.
He explains that trust between countries allowed huge progress in globalisation over past decades.
But the foundation of trust has been eroded, which Li says is aggrevating risks to global growth and peaceful development.
He says it is essential to rebuild trust, whether to overcome current difficulties or to create a better future.
It is essential that we discard prejudice, and work together to tackle the trust deficit, Li insists.
He adds that the world has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation.
But, he insists, the overall dynamics of world progress moving forwards will not change.
Viola Amherd, President of the Swiss Confederation, is warning delegates here at Davos about the rise of fake news and misinformation.
She says Switzerland supports the global governance of artificial intelligence.
Those who rely on lies and misinformation may benefit in the short term, but in the long term they will lose trust, Amherd says.
She also reminds WEF attendees that some in the general public distrust all of us here.
Rebuilding trust is not just a job for states and politicians, she argues, it is a responsibility for the economy too.
Increased social inbalances fuel populism, Amherd points out.
And when the elite flaunt its wealth when ordinary familes can barely make ends meet, mistrust grows, she adds.
Qatar’s prime minister has told Davos that requiring Israel to agree to a time-bound, mandatory path to a two-state solution is key to achieving future stability in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum today, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said the Palestinians must be the ones to decide if the Hamas movement that runs Gaza will continue to play a political role in the future, Reuters adds.
We are concerned about the further escalation in the Red Sea: PM in conversation at World Economic Forum#Qatar #WEF24 #Davos pic.twitter.com/oXvhdMQN1i
— The Peninsula Qatar (@PeninsulaQatar) January 16, 2024
#Qatar: PM warns LNG flows to be affected by Red Sea escalation
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) January 16, 2024
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s meeting with CEOs here at Davos has finished, and the Ukrainian president has been whisked away in a phalanx of security.
Leaving the meeting, Brian Moynihan, chief executive officer of Bank of America, tells us it was “terrific”, but declines to give more details.
We’ve had a quick chat with Harvard economics professor Ken Rogoff, one of the many experts here at the WEF Annual Meeting.
Rogoff doesn’t buy the soft landing idea that is prevalent in global financial markets, saying:
“I think that is the least likely scenario: we will either have a boom or a recession”.
Rogoff, who is a former IMF chief economist, said there was a risk that the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea were an example of the risks to the soft landing scenario.
He tells us:
“In the years since I completed my PhD in 1980 I can’t recall so much turbulence. Events are moving so quickly.”
The First Movers Coalition, a WEF initiative to encourage the decarbonization of the world’s heavy-emitting sectors, has picked up more members.
There are now 96 members, who’ve pledged to buy goods and services which only create very low emissions. The idea is to encourage development of breakthrough climate technologies by 2030, by showing there is commercial demand for them.
New members includel Qatar Airways, Velux, The Coca Cola Company, GE Vernova, DP World Limited, Capgemini, Danfoss A/S, Hanwha Ocean, Neutron Holdings (Lime), Volvo Cars, Inc., Chooose AS, Boom Technology, Drax Corporate Limited and Norsk Hydro ASA.
John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, who’s here in Davos this week, says the Coalition is “driving critical progress” in the some of the hardest to address sectors.
Kerry explains:
“As members participate in offtake agreements and invest in decarbonization projects in support of their FMC commitments, they continue to give confidence to this market to develop faster.
This approach is pivotal in expanding the use and availability of the breakthrough technological solutions that will enable the deep decarbonization of heavy-emitting sectors.”
Zelenskiy meets “CEOs for Ukraine”
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has met business chiefs at a session for “CEOs for Ukraine”, here at the World Economic Forum, before his speech this afternoon.
He was seated alongside Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, who will also address WEF today:
Updated
IMF: Governments must wake up to risks of AI and disinformation
Governments need to “wake up” to the risks of artificial intelligence and disinformation, the boss of the International Monetary Fund has warned.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, said AI poses big risks to financial stability and could also stoke inequality unless regulation catches up.
With countries including the US, UK and India holding elections this year, she said the risks of disinformation are “significant and potentially very severe” and a “big driver of mistrust”.
She said:
“Artificial intelligence can lead to manipulation of data… for companies and countries in a way that we have not seen so far.
“It means that governments have to wake up and take this very seriously. At the moment I don’t think that they do.”
Georgieva, who was speaking at a breakfast organised by Bloomberg at Davos, said its research suggested 60% of jobs in advanced economies are going to be impacted by AI.
“If you are lucky [this means] enhance productivity, [your job is] more enjoyable and very likely better paid.”
There’s a buzz in the Congress centre here as Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives for a closed-door meeting here at WEF.
Zelenskiy didn’t speak to the assembled media here, though.
Bill Gates also warned that there was a lack of preparedness for another pandemic, which required the right tools and the right institutions.
He said:
“There is some money being spent and some attention paid but not nearly enough”.
Updated
Bill Gates added that developing countries have seen their debt payments soar in recent years and were unable to borrow as much from the international financial markets. Aid spending had also fallen.
Gates told this morning’s Davos event on the future of health:
“I wish aid budgets were a lot bigger. I wish everybody was at 0.7%”(the UN target for the percentage of national income spent on aid).
Gates said his foundation was planning to spend a record $8.6b on health this year - a $2b increase - but warned that there was a risk that health in poor countries would drop down the global agenda.
Gates says:
“I would love to have a global health meeting like COP28 with 70,000 people in attendance”.
Without mentioning Donald Trump (who has won an overwhelming victory in the US’s first election contest of 2024, in Iowa) by name, Gates said he was concerned that this year’s US presidential election might lead to a reduction in America’s aid budget.
The US currently devotes 0.23% of national income to aid but Gates said:
“The US is where the election will have a consequence. You might have a reduction in that aid budget”.
Bill Gates: progress reducing child deaths in Africa has stalled
Bill Gates, the billionaire philanthropist, says the remarkable progress in reducing child deaths in Africa has stalled since 2019 because of the financial problems being faced by developing countries.
Speaking at a Davos event on the future of health, Gates called for rich countries to increase their aid spending to the UN target of 0.7% of GDP.
He said:
“From the turn of the century there was tremendous progress in reducing child deaths, which came down from 10 million a year to 5 million a year. Since 2019 the number of deaths has plateaued.”
Gates said the international community was way off course to meet the 2030 goal of reducing child deaths to 2.5m a year . The reason – developing countries were unable to invest enough in health care.
He warned:
“Progress has two components. The first is upstream research and that part is going very well. The second is the distribution part, the delivery bit - and that’s the bit at risk.”
France’s central bank chief has warned Davos that the European Central Bank cannot yet declare victory over inflation.
But… governor François Villeroy de Galhau also indicated that the ECB’s next move is likely to be a cut, some time this year.
ECB interest rates are currently a record high, while inflation ended 2023 at 2.9%.
De Galhau told a panel here in Davos:
“Barring major surprises - we look at the Middle East - our next move will be a cut, probably this year. I will not comment on the season,”
Villeroy de Galhau also cautioned that the ECB’s focus is inflation – not corporate valuations or the value of the stock markets (which boomed towards the end of last year as hopes of interest rate cuts grow).
The IMF’s Gita Gopinath has touched on this issue too, suggesting that market expectations for rapid interest-rate cut are a little premature.
Gopinath said:
“The markets are expecting central banks to cut rates pretty aggressively — I think that’s a bit premature to make that conclusion.
We should expect rates to come down some time this year, but based on the data we see right now, we expect this to be more likely in the second half of this year.”
🔴 IMF'S GOPINATH: WE'VE SEEN FINANCIAL CONDITIONS EASE EVERYWHERE.
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 16, 2024
🔴 IMF'S GOPINATH: EXUBERANCE HAS MADE THE SOFT LANDING CHALLENGE HARDER.
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 16, 2024
#Gopinath #IMF more upside risks to inflation
— Silvia Berzoni (@SilviaBerzoni) January 16, 2024
Updated
Full story: Geopolitical tensions and AI dominate start of World Economic Forum
Growing concern that heightened geopolitical tension could damage an already shaky global economy has dominated the start of the annual gathering of the world’s business and political elite in Davos, Switzerland.
Three potential flash points – Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan – threatened to overshadow the meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) aimed at rebuilding trust after the series of setbacks suffered in the past four years, including war, the Covid-19 pandemic and the cost of living crisis….
More here.
Chief economists see more economic uncertainty on the horizon
Anxiety over the prospects for the global economy this year is high, according to WEF’s latest poll of chief economists.
The annual survey found that global economic prospects remain fraught with uncertainty, with over half of those surveyed expecting the global economy to weaken this year.
Around three quarters expect labour market conditions to weaken this year – a blow to workers – while seven in 10 predict the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation will accelerate.
WEF adds:
Two-thirds said industrial policies will create new growth hotspots, but majority warns of rising fiscal strains and divergence between higher- and lower-income economies.
Generative AI is seen to increase productivity and innovation, with experts notably more optimistic about AI-enabled benefits for high-income economies.
Introduction: Davos begins....
Good morning from Davos, where world leaders, business chiefs, civic leaders, economists, activists and the media are gathering for the first full day of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting.
While the temperature here in Switzerland is decidedly chilly – a bracing –12 Celsius as delegates trudge through the snow or are chauffered through traffic jams – geopolitical tensions are heating up.
Today we’ll hear from Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as he tries to shore up support from allies as the war against Russia approaches its second anniversary.
Zelenskiy is reportedly planning to meet with JP Morgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon during his visit, as he rallies economic and military support for Kyiv.
According to Bloomberg, Zelenskiy “seeks to replenish the country’s coffers for its fight against Russia”.
Davos has already hosted a high-level meeting to discuss peace in Ukraine, but these talks – which don’t involve Russia - ended without a significant resolution.
Ursula von der Leyen will also address delegates today, as will China’s premier, Li Qiang.
Qiang is leading a large government delegation to this year’s World Economic Forum. Yesterday Qiang met with Swiss President Viola Amherd, with the pair signing a joint declaration to deepen bilateral ties and bolster an existing free trade agreement.
The Middle East crisis is also a growing concern for leaders here in Davos, with UK foreign secretary David Cameron warning last weekend that the ‘lights are absolutely flashing red’ on the global dashboard. He’s also visiting Davos this week.
President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, gives a speech later in the day.
Karen Harris, partner at Bain & Company, says the the “critical macro question for discussion at Davos” is whether the last four years will be remembered as a period of great disruption, or the start of a great divergence.
Harris explains:
“If disruption is the correct lens for interpreting our recent history, then 2024 and beyond will transition to a level of blandness compared to the last few years, which will be a relief for leaders and markets. Rebuilding and re-normalization will be prevailing themes of this scenario.
“But suppose 2020-2023 was not a disruption, but rather the moment of a historical divergence—a branching point when the larger arc of mega themes and trends took a steep turn. If this lens (divergence) turns out to be correct, then the loop of volatile events triggering volatile reactions resumes in 2024; the shaking of the world resumes and likely continues even beyond this year.
The agenda
8.15am CET / 7.15am GMT: A panel discussion on high interest rates, including Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, and François Villeroy de Galhau,governor of the Central Bank of France.
8.15am CET / 7.15am GMT: A panel discussion on whether generative AI is the Steam Engine of the Fourth Industrial Revolution?
9.45am CET / 8.45am GMT: A Conversation with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar
10.50am CET / 9.50am CET: Special Address by Li Qiang, Premier of the People’s Republic of China
11.20am CET / 10.20am GMT: Special Address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
1pm CET / Noon GMT: Securing an Insecure World, including Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of NATO
2.15pm CET / 1.15pm GMT: Special address by Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine
4.30pm CET / 3.30pm GMT: A Conversation with Microsoft SEO Satya Nadella and Klaus Schwab, founder of WEF
5pm CET / 4pm GMT: Special address by Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor
5.30pm CET / 4.30pm GMT: A Conversation with Bisher Hani Al Khasawneh, prime minister of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
5.30pm CET / 4.30pm GMT: A panel discussion on Industrial Policy 2.0, including Jonathan Reynolds, Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Trade.
6.45pm CET / 5.45pm GMT: Chief Economists Briefing,
Updated
