Who starts Game 3?
That's the question Dave Dombrowski needs to be asking himself as the trade deadline draws nearer. Forget all of the other holes. Center field, third base, shortstop — the Phillies have options there. They may not be great options, but at least they exist. A lineup can compensate for its weak spots. Out there on the bump, it's a population of one.
So, who is it? Zack Wheeler will give you as good of a chance in Game 1 as any starter in the league. There are plenty of playoff teams who would be happy to have Aaron Nola on the mound in Game 2.
Then who?
The longer Dombrowski mulls it over, the more obvious his trade deadline strategy should become. The Phillies need to target a starter, and they need to do it in a way that solves the dilemma beyond this season. It could cost them breakout catching prospect Logan O'Hoppe, or one of the two young fireballers they have in the low minors. But the risk would be worth it in return for a guy whom they can feel confident sending out to the mound not only for the stretch run and any eventual playoff series, but also every fifth day next season behind Wheeler and Nola. We're talking about a legitimate No. 3 starter, one who is under 30 years old and who has multiple seasons of club control remaining before free agency. They should avoid trading Mick Abel or Andrew Painter at all costs. But if that is the cost, they might have to pay it.
Point is, Dombrowski needs to be thinking much bigger than the rent-a-player deals that abound this time of year. The next Kyle Gibson isn't going to get it done. Think Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Think Jose Berrios.
The Berrios deal is worth the closest inspection. Last July, the Blue Jays parted with a couple of Top 100 prospects to land the then-27-year-old righty, who'd appeared in two All-Star Games and was not scheduled to reach free agency until after this season. It was a steep price, but Toronto went on to sign Berrios to a seven-year, $131 million extension after the season, securing itself a long-term answer in the rotation.
There's a comparable player on the market this year in Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, who is in the midst of a remarkably consistent four-year stretch that began with an All-Star appearance in 2019. His 162-game averages during that span: 34 starts, 197 innings, a 3.52 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9. At 29 years old and with free agency looming after next season, he clearly does not fit the timeline of the Reds, who began the process of stripping their roster to the bones in the offseason. The only question for the Reds is when Castillo's value will be at its highest.
The Reds probably aren't in a position to demand quite that level of return for Castillo. Berrios was two years younger at last year's deadline than Castillo is now, so while the Blue Jays were acquiring a year-and-a-half of his contractual rights, they could also plan on signing him to an extension that includes several prime years. Castillo will be heading into his 31-year-old season when he reaches free agency, so an extension might not make sense.
It would be awfully tough to sacrifice Abel or Painter for a year-and-a-half of Castillo. In a perfect world, a team like Cincinnati would see some upside in a guy like Alec Bohm, but Dombrowski could need to get creative. The Reds have some other intriguing pieces who could make a hefty price more palatable, from 27-year-old starter Tyler Mahle (under control through 2023) to rental utilityman Brandon Drury (18 home runs and an .878 OPS this season) to veteran outfielder Tommy Pham to reliever Jeff Hoffman. If the Reds insist on a package built around one of the two young pitching prospects, maybe the Phillies can sleep easier if the return also helps them patch one of their other holes.
Dombrowski could set his sights slightly lower and look at 29-year-old A's righty Frankie Montas, who has a 3.33 ERA in 49 starts over the last two seasons and is under club control through next year. Montas just hit the injured list, so might not even be an option. Point is, the Phillies should be thinking along those lines.
Just look at the matchups in a potential divisional playoff series. The Dodgers could be starting Tony Gonsolin, who entered Sunday 11-0 with a 1.62 ERA in 16 starts. That's assuming Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias start Games 1 and 2. All three of those guys have an ERA under 2.60 and an ERA+ that is at least 60 percent better than league average.
The Braves can go with Charlie Morton, the veteran righty with 16 career postseason starts. Or, they might call on 23-year-old revelation Spencer Strider, who has struck out 65 batters and allowed just 14 walks and three home runs while posting a 2.83 ERA in his first eight big-league starts. Either way, who is the Phillies' equivalent?
It isn't Zach Eflin. He's made it through six innings in just six of his 13 starts. He's recorded 13 or fewer outs in five. He might give you a chance on a team with a dominant bullpen. But even that would assume that he will be healthier than he has been in a lot of Octobers (or now, for that matter). Besides, look at his second-half ERAs: 7.39, 6.23, 5.76, 4.69, 12.27.
Ranger Suarez? Maybe if he can be the guy he was at the end of last season instead of the one he's been for most of this one. In his last 10 starts of 2021, the lefty averaged six innings per outing and a strikeout per inning while allowing just 11 runs. But the Phillies have not seen that guy in awhile. Six of his 15 starts had lasted less than five innings before he went on the injured list. His strikeout numbers are way down.
Kyle Gibson? He wasn't a postseason-worthy starter three years ago for the Twins, and isn't one now.
This is bigger than the playoffs, though. It's about getting there, both this season and next. Acquiring a starter could open the door for Suarez to return to the bullpen, where he had a 1.17 ERA in 27 appearances last season. That's a more sustainable option than trying to patch together the rest of the season with a rental player or two and then find a new solution for 2023.
Young, controllable, middle-of-the-rotation starters are not cheap. But then, there's a reason for that.
