Were the New Orleans Saints lucky to finish the year at 7-10? Maybe so. Research from Tom Bliss, the manager of football ops data science for the NFL, found that the Saints benefited from a lot of bounces going their way during the 2022 season. He points to examples of luck like the opposing team dropping would-be interceptions, fumble recoveries, missed kicks and opposing receivers dropping passes. Bliss took each of those stats and tabulated them into wins added per team.
Bizarrely, the Saints ranked high in a lot of those categories. New Orleans led the NFL in opponents’ dropped passes, which added a full +1.15 win to their cumulative total. And they stood out from the pack by a wide margin there, with next-closest being the Jacksonville Jaguars (+0.79). Their final ranking in the “good luck” rankings was seventh-best in the NFL.
