When you think back over Liverpool’s worst performances in this trying campaign, your mind inevitably focusses on issues in the midfield and terrible defensive mistakes. The attack hasn’t been so much of an issue, with the Reds second in the Premier League for Opta-defined clear-cut chances and third for expected goals.
But they have inevitably had some dry days up front, same as all teams. The worst of them (per FBRef) occurred last weekend in the goalless draw at Crystal Palace, in which Liverpool generated just 0.9 xG.
While that was the lowest the Reds have mustered, there have so far been 10 matches in league and Europe in which they had no more than 1.5 expected goals. If you review the team sheets for those games, one player’s name – or general lack of it – stands out a mile.
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Mohamed Salah misses very few games in the two main competitions and indeed started all 10. Despite their respective injury issues this term, Roberto Firmino (six) and Luis Diaz (five) were each in the XI for at least half of the poorest attacking matches, while new signing Cody Gakpo began the last three.
Notable by his general absence is Darwin Nunez. The Uruguayan started just two of the 10, both in north London, and did his bit going forward by scoring at Arsenal and providing an assist at Tottenham. Despite only joining at the start of the campaign, he is already of vital importance to the Reds’ attacking patterns. Opta have revealed he has few equals across the Premier League.
Nunez is behind only Bruno Fernandes and Kevin De Bruyne for involvements in open play shot-ending sequences per 90 minutes this season. The figures here pre-date the 2-0 win over Wolves, so with seven direct shot involvements in that match Nunez has likely narrowed the gap a touch. While his ferocious shot rate makes up the bulk of his contribution, he also creates chances at a decent rate for a forward while occasionally playing a part in build-up play too.
There are other metrics which highlight the 23-year-old’s importance. Liverpool have had a clear-cut chance every 31 minutes in all competitions this season, a very healthy rate considering few teams ever average at least three per game. Yet their rate improves to one every 26 when Nunez is on the field and drops to 41 in his absence. The former Benfica man has either created or shot 45 of the 70 big chances which have occurred on his watch, and there will be others where he has played a part without receiving official credit in the data.
Opta’s Michael Reid tweeted some numbers after the Palace match which told a very similar story. When Nunez had started in the Premier League to that point, the Reds averaged an extra 3.1 shots and 0.33 expected goals compared with when he did not. It is therefore little surprise that their points-per-game average and win percentage were better too.
As Reid also noted, Darwin played no part in the 9-0 win against Bournemouth, so the ‘without Nunez’ statistics receive a huge boost from that one match. It’s remarkable to think that Liverpool’s positive goal difference in 2022/23 stems almost entirely from a single game against the Cherries.
If you look at the Reds’ goal difference for when the 11 players with at least 1,000 minutes have featured, Darwin is seventh on +0.52 per 90 minutes, just 0.02 above second bottom. Yet if you exclude the Bournemouth match for the sake of argument, he rises to the top.
That game is the only one of the 12 in league and Champions League in which Liverpool have generated over two expected goals that Nunez did not play. It’s also interesting that the Reds conceded just four times in those matches. When their attack is firing they come under much less pressure at the back, and the record of 11 wins and a draw proves the point. With Darwin in their side, Liverpool look capable of achieving so much more than they have often delivered this season.
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