The Chicago Bears have the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft, where general manager Ryan Poles will look to bolster a roster that was arguably the worst in the league last season.
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah held a conference call for the media on Friday ahead of the NFL Scouting Combine next week. He addressed a number of topics, including potential scenarios for the Bears at No. 1 overall.
Chicago should have no shortage of suitors for the top pick, where quarterback-needy teams will be clamoring to draft Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis.
“If you look at those trades — trade-ups for quarterbacks, usually when you look at the trade chart, it’s about 120%, give or take, in terms of the trade chart value,” Jeremiah said. “You have to pay a premium if you are going to come up for a quarterback, which is great news there for the Bears.”
Jeremiah laid out three teams that he believes will be in the mix for trading up to No. 1 and what those trade packages could look like:
Bears trade back with Texans (No. 2)
The Texans blew their chance for their choice of quarterback without giving up draft capital. Now, the Bears will make Houston work for it to get the first overall pick they could’ve easily had (thanks, Lovie Smith).
Jeremiah pegs the Texans as a contender to move up one spot to first overall, which wouldn’t result in substantial draft capital for Chicago. In this scenario, the Bears would get Picks 2 and 33, as well as a 2024 second-rounder.
While it’s not quite the haul fans would like, Chicago would be in a prime position to get their choice of Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter or Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. at No. 2 overall.
“So if you are just going to go back to pick No. 2, you’re going to get the second pick, the 33rd pick, and next year’s two,” Jeremiah said. “That would be the trade you would have there with the Texans.”
Bears trade back with Colts (No. 4)
The Colts are easily the most popular trade target for the Bears during mock draft season, and it’s easy to see why. Indianapolis has made it clear they’re out of the veteran quarterback market and want to draft and develop a quarterback.
GM Chris Ballard said he’d do whatever it takes to get his guy, and trading up with Chicago would not only allow the Colts to get their choice of quarterback, but they’d be jumping their division rivals, the Texans.
In this trade scenario, Indianapolis gives up two first-round picks, two second-round selections and a fourth-rounder in the next two drafts. Not to mention, they’ll also likely land either Carter or Anderson inside the top four.
“If you go to 4, would you have to give up… a fourth round pick in 2024 as well as the No. 1 overall pick,” Jeremiah said. “You would get No. 4 overall, No. 35 overall, and a first round pick in ’24, and a second round pick in ’24.”
Bears trade back with Panthers (No. 9)
The last trade scenario Jeremiah lays out involves the Bears trading back eight spots with the Panthers. While on the surface it might not seem like the best option — Carter and Anderson would be well out of reach — it might be the most beneficial for this franchise moving forward.
According to Jeremiah, it would cost Carolina three first-round picks, as well as an additional second-rounder. That would give Poles an additional first-round pick in the next two drafts, which would be huge for this franchise.
“If you want to go all the way to 9, you are going to get the ninth pick, you are going to get the 39th pick, and get a first round in ’24 and a first round in ’25,” Jeremiah said.
When you consider the Panthers would be trading up to the first overall selection — and getting their top choice of quarterback — it definitely feels like a favorable option. After all, the 49ers traded three first-rounders to move up to No. 3 and got the third quarterback off the board in Trey Lance.
What's the best case scenario for the Bears?
When looking at those three trade scenarios, which is in the best interest for Chicago?
While landing a top defensive prospect in Carter or Anderson is tempting, Jeremiah argues that the Bears would be best off trading back eight spots with the Panthers — to maximize the value of the No. 1 selection.
After all, Carolina would essentially be trading three first-rounders to move up, and Chicago could still land an impact player inside the top-10.
“When I look at all those hauls — and I understand you could be trading off of the opportunity to get one of the premiere defensive players there at 2 or 4,” Jeremiah said. “If you ask me what I would do, I would be hoping the Carolina Panthers want to pay that price. I’ll go to 9, and I’ll take all those first round picks and let’s go try and fill some of these needs.
“So those are the three teams I think that will be in the mix, and those are the three options.”
