LABOR'S Dan Repacholi is not claiming victory in Hunter and his rivals say it's too early to call the result.
ABC analyst Antony Green has called the 2022 federal election and with a 1.2 per cent ALP swing, the Hunter result has been called earlier than most pundits expected.
However, Mr Repacholi is yet to claim victory and a campaign spokesperson told the Newcastle Herald the results are still too close to call.
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"We are thrilled that Antony Green has called the result but it's still very early and we are not resting on our laurels just yet," the spokesperson said.
At the Miller Park Hotel at East Branxton, a defiant Dale McNamara insisted it was still too early to call the seat of Hunter, and he, like James Thomson, was pointing to pre-poll and postal votes, arguing that they will hold the key to the election in Hunter regardless of what happens this evening.
In contrast to the sedate scenes at Singleton Diggers for the National Party gathering, the atmosphere at Branxton was loud and boisterous.
The AEC and the ABC have both called Hunter for the ALP, and their experience in voting counting and preference analysis has begun to weigh heavily on the National Party room.
At the Caledonian Hotel, Independent candidate Stuart Bonds agreed that Labor looked like forming government, but like the other challengers to Mr Repacholi refused to concede that Labor would retain the seat.
"No way, no way," Mr Bonds said. "It's just too early to tell and there is a huge load of vote yet to be counted."
Despite this optimism, the official AEC figures indicate a clear win to the former Olympian and Commonwealth Games shooter, 53.7 per cent to 46.3 per cent, a slight improvement in two-party preferred terms over the margin that Joel Fitzgibbon secured in 2019 against Nationals challenger Josh Angus.
Just before 9pm the AEC said those were the "projected figures with 40 of 71 polling places "returned" and "63.16 per cent of the ballot papers counted", with a "two candidate preferred count undertaken", indicating that an indicative flow of preferences had been factored into this estimate of the final outcome.
As shown by the AEC graphic below, Dan Repacholi had 17,736 votes or 36.98 of first preference votes, with James Thomson substantially behind on 11.157 or 25.15 per cent of the vote counted.
Dale McNamara was in third place on 4384 or 9.88 per cent, with Independent Stuart Bonds on 2597 or 5.85 per cent.
The primary votes for the majors are more or less in line with estimates in opinion polls, although Mr Repacholi's vote appears higher than many estimates had him.
A Nationals victory was always going to depend on preference flows and at this stage of the night, despite the optimism of the challengers, this looks unlikely.
