With only two weeks remaining in the NFL season, the time to pad your pocketbook is drawing to a close. With so few players to choose from nailing the correct sleepers becomes even more important. If you like to enter multiple-lineup GPP tourneys, you can lock up the QB and DST slots with 16 entries, but you still need to pick the correct RBs, WRs, and TEs. If you like to play superflex contests, where you choose to start two QBs, there are only six combinations to choose from. Just realize that a non-QB may outscore that second QB in your SF slot. Lastly, on a short slate such as this, double-TE or triple-TE is a very legitimate strategy.
DFS: The Main Slate: recommended lineups
DK Lineup: QB Brock Purdy ($6.4k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($9.0k), RB Justice Hill ($4.8k), WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6.9k), WR Nelson Agholor ($3.8k), WR Zay Flowers ($5.8k), TE George Kittle ($5.3k), FLEX Sam LaPorta ($5.4k), DST Detroit Lions ($2.6k)
FD Lineup: QB Brock Purdy ($7.7k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($11.0k), RB Justice Hill ($5.5k), WR Brandon Aiyuk ($7.8k), WR Jauan Jennings ($5.3k), WR Nelson Agholor ($5.1k), TE Sam LaPorta ($6.5k), FLEX Travis Kelce ($7.2k), DST Kansas City Chiefs ($3.8k)
FB Lineup: QB Brock Purdy ($6.1k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.8k), RB Isiah Pacheco ($6.2k), WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6.8k), WR Jauan Jennings ($4.0k), WR/TE Travis Kelce ($6.1k), TE George Kittle ($5.2k), FLEX Josh Reynolds ($3.8k), SUPERFLEX Lamar Jackson ($7.7k)
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $7,700 | $8,800 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $6,900 | $7,500 |
| Brock Purdy | $6.400 | $7,700 |
| Jared Goff | $6,300 | $7,200 |
Quarterback
Weekly strategy – Thanks to his rushing ability, Lamar Jackson is once again the safe floor play. That said, there isn’t a poor play. Brock Purdy has the easiest path to 3x value.
Pay to play
Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. KC
($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD) KC is very good against the pass, but they were just gouged on the ground by Buffalo. This included allowing 72 yards and two rushing TDs to Josh Allen. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, since during the regular season, they ranked 23rd in rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed to opposing QBs. On a short slate like this, Jackson’s floor is higher than everyone else’s ceiling.
Stay away
Jared Goff, Lions @ SF ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD) I don’t hate Goff this week, but someone has to be the stay-away selection. He is facing a defense that allowed the eighth-fewest passing TDs during the regular season and that finished with more INTs than TDs allowed. Plus, Goff has averaged one less TD per game on the road than at home.
Value play
Brock Purdy, Niners vs. DET ($6,400 DK, $7,700 FD) The potential absence of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) won’t help Purdy’s outlook. In each of the games that Samuel has missed (or not finished), Purdy has exactly one passing score. Even if he doesn’t play, this team has enough weapons to succeed against the worst passing defense on the docket. That ranking separation isn’t particularly close. The other three defenses rank first, third, and ninth in passing TDs allowed. Detroit ranks 28th.
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,000 | $11,000 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $6,500 | $7,800 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | $6,400 | $7,000 |
| David Montgomery | $5,600 | $6,000 |
| Gus Edwards | $5,500 | $5,800 |
| Justice Hill | $4,900 | $5,500 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $4,600 | $4,400 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $4,500 | $4,600 |
| Jordan Mason | $4,300 | $4,300 |
| Dalvin Cook | $4,200 | $4,500 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | $4,000 | $4,100 |
Running back
Weekly strategy – Christian McCaffrey gets a tougher matchup this weekend. Still, he always has the highest ceiling. Unfortunately, that ceiling may not equate to 3x value. Isaiah Pacheco and Jahmyr Gibbs are the pivot plays. Justice Hill and Dalvin Cook are potential punt options at RB2.
Pay to play
Christian McCaffrey, Niners vs. DET
($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD) The potential absence of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) should boost McCaffrey’s production. In three of the four games that Samuel didn’t play or left early, McCaffrey scored multiple TDs. Detroit is tougher against the run than the pass. Only one team allows fewer rushing yards per game. Unfortunately for them, they are allowing over nine yards per reception to opposing RBs. This is where McCaffrey will eat. On a slate with four elite run defenses, McCaffrey’s TD upside makes him the safest play, regardless of his astronomical price.
Stay away
David Montgomery, Lions @ SF ($5,600 DK, $6,000 FD) It is difficult to decipher who will be the Lions lead back on a week-to-week basis. Neither makes a great play on the ground versus the Niners. Only two teams allowed fewer rushing yards per game. The advantage for Jahmyr Gibbs is that he holds a 3-to-1 advantage in receptions between the pair. This is important since San Francisco allowed the seventh-most RB receiving yards and the fifth-most RB receptions during the regular season. If you have to play a Lions RB this week, make it Gibbs, not Montgomery.
Value play
Justice Hill, Ravens vs. KC ($4,900 DK, $5,500 FD) I expected that the addition of Dalvin Cook to this offense would hurt Hill more than Gus Edwards. I was wrong. Hill led the team in carries and RB rushing yards last week versus the Houston Texans. Last week, Kansas City allowed 163 total yards to the Buffalo backfield. They were short-handed last week, still, they have allowed more rushing yards per game than any of the remaining teams. If you want McCaffrey in your lineup (and you do), then you have to find some discount options. Hill and Cook are those discount RB2 choices.
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,900 | $9,000 |
| Deebo Samuel | $7,300 | $8,000 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,900 | $7,800 |
| Rashee Rice | $6,500 | $7,100 |
| Zay Flowers | $5,800 | $6,400 |
| Jauan Jennings | $4,600 | $5,300 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $4,400 | $5,200 |
| Josh Reynolds | $4,000 | $5,600 |
| Nelson Agholor | $3,800 | $5,100 |
| Jameson Williams | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Rashod Bateman | $3,600 | $4,900 |
| Skyy Moore | $3,500 | $4,400 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $3,400 | $4,800 |
| Justin Watson | $3,300 | $4,700 |
| Kadarius Toney | $3,200 | $4,500 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | $3,200 | $4,400 |
| Kalif Raymond | $3,100 | $4,700 |
| Ronnie Bell | $3,100 | $4,600 |
| Devin Duvernay | $3,000 | $4,100 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $3,000 | $4,300 |
| Justyn Ross | $3,000 | $4,200 |
| Mecole Hardman Jr. | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Richie James Jr. | $3,000 | $4,300 |
Wide receiver
Weekly strategy – Deebo Samuel (shoulder) is questionable (at best) to play. This means Brandon Aiyuk becomes the top WR1 option on this slate. Amon-Ra St. Brown also is usable, but his price is high. Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers are the top WR2 choices. If Samuel is out, Jauan Jennings becomes the clear WR3. Josh Reynolds, Nelson Agholor, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, and Justin Watson are the other possibilities.
Pay to play
Brandon Aiyuk, Niners vs. DET ($6,900 DK, $7,800 FD) Last week, Aiyuk had a dud versus the Packers. This shouldn’t sway you from starting him this week. Green Bay’s secondary is light-years better than Detroit’s. Over their last five games, Detroit has allowed opposing WR1s to average 9.6-178-1. Assuming that Samuel remains out, this is the easiest play on the slate.
Stay away
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions @ SF ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD) Since Week 10, San Francisco has allowed an average of 4.3-53-0.5 to opposing WR1s. St. Brown has scored in eight of his last 11 games, but he has topped 100 yards in only five of those contests. He will need both yardage and the TD to reach value as the highest-priced WR on both sites. Considering their prices, it will be a decision whether you choose to use St. Brown or McCaffrey. Fitting both will be nearly impossible. For less money, just use Aiyuk as your WR1 instead.
Value play
Jauan Jennings, Niners vs. DET ($4,600 DK, $5,300 FD) Jennings saw the biggest boost in usage last week after Samuel left the game. His five receptions and 61 receiving yards ranked second on the team. His six targets were also the second-most he has seen this year. The most targets he saw came back in Week 7 versus the Minnesota Vikings, when Samuel was also out. This defense is rotten enough to go full-on Voltron stack with Purdy, McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Jennings, and George Kittle.
- Note – if Deebo Samuel plays, consider pivoting to Nelson Agholor or Josh Reynolds at a similar price point.
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $6,600 | $7,200 |
| Sam LaPorta | $5,400 | $6,500 |
| George Kittle | $5,300 | $6,600 |
| Mark Andrews | $5,000 | $5,700 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,300 | $5,400 |
| Zach Ertz | $2,800 | $X,XXX |
| Anthony Firkser | $2,500 | $4,100 |
| Blake Bell | $2,500 | $4,200 |
| Noah Gray | $2,500 | $4,600 |
Tight end
Weekly strategy – This week, you need to use a double- or triple-TE lineup. The activation of Mark Andrews (ankle) severely diminishes Isaiah Likely’s upside. Do not play Andrews this week.
Pay to play
Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ BAL
($6,600 DK, $7,200 FD) Kelce is now up to 18 touchdowns in 20 career postseason games. He has scored at least once in 12 of the 16 postseason games since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs starting QB. Amazingly, Kelce has never faced Baltimore in the postseason. He has faced them five times during the regular season, though. In those games, he has averaged 6.6-87 and scored a pair of TDs.
Stay away
Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. KC ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD) Andrews has been activated for this week’s game. Historically, he has been the entire Ravens offense. Now, the team has other weapons to throw to (including his understudy Isaiah Likely). This isn’t a great matchup anyway, as KC has allowed only two TEs to score in their last 12 games. Plus, neither site gives us a discount on Andrews in a game where he most assuredly will be on a snap count. Just look elsewhere this week.
Value play
Isaiah Likely, Ravens vs. KC ($4,300 DK, $5,400 FD) If you start one of the Ravens tight ends, make it Likely. As detailed above, this isn’t a great matchup. Still, he will see the lion’s share of the snaps for Baltimore this week. He also has scored six times in his last six games. The enormous advantage that Likely provides is that his price on DK is considerably lower than Andrews.
